Lex专栏：亚洲并购几家欢喜几家愁

To the ruler, the people are heaven; to the people, food is. So goes a Chinese proverb. The appetite of China’s companies for cross-border deals contrasts with a regulatory reluctance to approve them. That partly explains why the volume of regional mergers and acquisitions by Asian companies, outside Japan, fell more than half last year, according to Mergermarket data.

中国有句古话说：王者以民为天，而民以食为天。中国企业对跨境并购的兴趣与监管部门不愿批准的情况形成鲜明对比。Mergermarket的数据显示，这在一定程度上解释了为什么亚洲(不包括日本)企业的地区并购额在去年下降了一半以上。

Despite companies’ desire to spend outside mainland China, restrictions on risky deals have had a significant effect. US regulators have also become more wary of intellectual property and consumer data issues. Global cross-border merger volumes declined 1.3 per cent compared to the previous year, to $1.32tn.

尽管中国内地企业愿意在境外投资，但对风险交易的限制却产生了巨大的影响。美国监管机构也越来越关注知识产权和消费者数据问题。全球跨境并购交易额比上年下降1.3%，至1.32万亿美元。

True, overall Asian M&A was buoyed by a number of large deals, such as the $24.7bn acquisition of Australian property group Westfield’s US and UK assets by France’s Unibail-Rodamco. That deal made the property sector top in M&A volumes in the region. Property markets in Asia, especially Hong Kong, remain robust. Residential prices there are forecast to rise as much as a fifth next year, say consultants JLL.

诚然，亚洲并购整体受到了许多大额交易的推动，如法国的尤尼百-洛当科集团(Unibail-Rodamco)斥资247亿美元收购澳大利亚房地产集团西田集团(Westfield)在美国和英国的资产。这笔交易让房地产业在该地区的并购交易额中占据首位。亚洲(尤其是香港)房地产市场依然强劲。JLL咨询公司表示，预计明年住宅价格将上涨20%。

The real winner of the last year was private equity. Deal volumes across Asia, including Japan, rose 45 per cent to $144bn. A big contributor there was the $15.9bn buyout of Global Logistic Properties by Hopu Investment Management and Vanke.

去年真正的赢家是私人股本。包括日本在内的亚洲地区的私人股本并购交易额增长了45%，达到1440亿美元。其中一大交易是厚朴基金(Hopu Investment Management)和万科(Vanke)斥资159亿新加坡元收购了普洛斯(Global Logistic Properties)。

Three statistics may raise concerns. In Japan, the value of companies acquired by foreign firms was higher than domestic acquisitions for only the second time ever. Last year’s average deal value of $353m, too, exceeds that of any year but one. The same holds for the number of technology deals. For all three of those metrics the previous high water mark was 2001, the twilight of the technology bubble.

三个统计数据可能引人关注。在日本，外国企业收购的企业价值高于国内企业收购，这只是有史以来第二次。去年的平均交易价值3.53亿美元，也是历年来的第二高水平。技术领域并购交易数量同样如此。对于这三个数据来说，前一次的高峰出现在科技泡沫即将破灭的2001年。

A hint of indigestion to come? Maybe, but the banquet could still go on for a while. Acquisitions better aligned with Beijing’s priorities will get a better reception, likewise less politically sensitive targets. Meanwhile, economic recovery in Europe, tax cuts in the US and cheap debt everywhere suggest global M&A should top $3tn again in 2018.

这是未来出现消化不良的征兆?也许，但宴会仍将持续一段时间。更符合北京优先事项的收购将会得到更好的接待，不那么政治敏感的收购目标同样如此。与此同时，欧洲经济复苏、美国减税以及世界各地债务成本低意味着，全球并购在2018年应会再次突破3万亿美元。