2018年金属市场展望
2017年股市大涨吸引了很多关注，但金属和矿物也表现不俗。标普高盛商品指数工业金属总回报指数(S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index)显示，在全球经济强劲增长的支持下，金属价格全年上涨了24%左右。
As commodity investors reflect on a successful 2017, here are the key factors that will shape what 2018 holds for precious metals as well as base and bulk commodities.
在大宗商品投资者反思2017年的成功之际，我们来看看将影响2018年贵金属以及贱金属和大宗商品走势的关键因素。
China vs the rest of the world
中国VS全球其他地区
As the consumer of about half of the world’s raw materials, China will remain the big influence on commodity markets in 2018. Beijing’s pollution crackdown and its clampdown on excess capacity should provide a powerful prop for aluminium, steel and iron ore. It will also help offset the effect of tighter monetary policy and slowdown in the residential property market.
作为全球约一半原材料的消费国，中国在2018年仍将是大宗商品市场的重要影响因素。中国政府治理污染和遏制产能过剩将为铝、钢铁和铁矿石提供有力支撑。这也将有助于抵消货币政策收紧和住宅市场增长放缓的影响。
Aluminium, in particular, could shine. “With our expectation of Chinese production growth — just 2m tonnes over the coming five years — and domestic demand still healthy, exports will naturally trend lower,” says Colin Hamilton of BMO Capital Markets. “The rest of the world has become used to these exports, and in order to solve any reduction, productive capacity outside China will have to be incentivised.”
铝的表现可能尤其耀眼。蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)的科林•汉密尔顿(Colin Hamilton)表示：“鉴于我们对中国产量增长的预期——今后五年仅为200万吨——而且国内需求仍然健康，出口自然会下降。世界其他地方已经习惯了这些出口，因此为了应对中国出口下降，中国以外地区的生产能力必须得到激励。”
In steel, a shift away from environmentally polluting mills to ones that are more efficient will fuel a need for high-grade iron ore, boosting the profitability of the big suppliers such as BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto.
在钢铁行业，从污染环境的钢厂转向效率更高的钢厂将推动对高品位铁矿石的需求，提高必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、淡水河谷(Vale)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等大型供应商的盈利能力。
But analysts and investors will also be tracking economic growth outside China. With order books filling up and manufacturing activity rising in key industrial countries, a period of restocking could follow. “Usually this marks a later part of the cycle, but also one where commodity prices are well supported,” says Mr Hamilton.
但分析师和投资者还会追踪中国以外地区的经济增长。随着主要工业国家订单和制造活动的增加，可能会出现一段时间的补充库存活动。汉密尔顿表示：“通常这标志着周期进入后期，它也是大宗商品价格得到很好支撑的一个阶段。”
Copper 铜
Most analysts expect the copper market to be broadly balanced in 2018, with supply being sufficient to meet demand. What could swing the balance is a string of labour contracts that are up for review next year in important producer countries such as Chile and Peru.
大多数分析师预计，2018年铜市场将会基本保持平衡，供应足以满足需求。可能影响平衡的因素是2018年在智利和秘鲁等重要生产国重新谈判的一系列劳动合同。
Citibank estimates that almost 30 sets of labour contract negotiations are set to take place over the next 12 months, potentially affecting 25 per cent of global copper supply. This includes Escondida, the world’s biggest copper mine in Chile, where one of the unions has already held a one-day warning strike.
花旗银行(Citibank)估计，未来12个月将会进行近30组劳动合同谈判，可能影响全球25%的铜供应。在全球最大的铜矿、位于智利的埃斯康迪达(Escondida)，有一家工会已经举行了为期一天的警告性罢工。
Against a backdrop of higher prices — copper is close to $7,000 a tonne — workers will be in no mood to give ground easily. As such, industrial action could trigger big price actions next year
在价格上涨的背景下——现在铜价接近每吨7000美元——工人们将不愿意轻易让步。因此，劳工行动可能会在2018年引发重大的价格变动。
Battery metals 电池金属
Cobalt and lithium, key ingredients in the batteries used in electric vehicles, have had stellar years. Electric vehicles sales are expected to top the 1m mark for the first time. The price of lithium carbonate has risen 36 per cent, while cobalt prices have doubled — luring investors and junior miners to what has been dubbed “battery gold”.
钴和锂是电动汽车用电池的关键材料，多年来价格强劲上涨。电动汽车销量将有望首次超过100万辆。碳酸锂价格上涨了36%，同时钴价上涨了1倍——吸引投资者和小型矿商纷纷投资这些被称为“电池黄金”的金属。
Yet the increasing supply of both metals remains a risk for prices next year. One of the world’s largest producers, Chile’s SQM, is in talks to resolve a dispute over how much lithium it can produce following the election of billionaire Sebastián Piñera as president.
然而，在2018年，这两种金属供应增加仍然可能影响价格。智利的SQM是全球最大生产商之一，它正在展开谈判，以解决在亿万富翁塞巴斯蒂安•皮涅拉(Sebastián Piñera)当选总统之后有关该公司锂产量的争议。
“For Chile, the new round of negotiations could mean the country significantly expanding its lithium output,” analysts at BTG Pactual in Santiago note.
圣地亚哥BTG Pactual的分析师们指出：“对智利来说，新一轮谈判可能意味着该国的锂产量将会大幅增加。”
A host of new lithium projects in South America and Australia are likely to end the shortage in the market by 2019, which will be followed by a few years of oversupply, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)表示，南美和澳大利亚新上马的许多锂项目到2019年可能会结束市场供应短缺，随后会出现数年供大于求的局面。
For cobalt, supply is coming on from Glencore, which is set to double production from its Katanga Mining subsidiary in the Democratic Republic of Congo. If all that comes to the market, it will put the cobalt market into a surplus in 2019, consultancy CRU estimates.
对于钴来说，来自嘉能可(Glencore)的供应将会增加，后者位于刚果民主共和国的Katanga矿业子公司的产量可能翻倍。咨询公司CRU估计，如果这些产量全都进入市场，钴市场在2019年将会出现供过于求。
As far as demand goes, China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, will be key. Beijing is phasing out subsidies for car purchases in favour of a quota system that will encourage manufacturers to produce a certain number of vehicles. Analysts expect the change to hit sales in 2018.
就需求而言，全球最大的电动汽车市场中国将是关键。中国政府正在逐步取消汽车购买补贴，取而代之的是将会鼓励制造商生产一定数量电动汽车的配额制。分析师预计这一变化将在2018年影响销量。
Gold 黄金
With a gain of almost 10 per cent, gold has had a decent year even if its gains were overshadowed by those for US stocks. After rising above $1,350 a troy ounce in early September, the highest in just over a year, the precious metal has since retreated to about $1,260.
黄金在过去一年表现还不错，涨幅接近10%，虽然比不上美股。继去年9月初上涨到每盎司1350美元以上之后——这是近一年来的最高点——黄金价格回落至1260美元左右。
Strategists at Goldman Sachs reckon three forces will drive the price lower over the next few months: continued robust growth in developed economies, further rate rises from the Federal Reserve and the likely absence of severe geopolitical risks or a recession.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)策略师认为，有三个因素将推动黄金价格在未来几个月走低：发达经济体继续强劲增长、美联储进一步加息，以及可能不会出现重大地缘政治风险或经济衰退。
However, the metal could still be in demand from investors as hedge both against the risk the bull market in stocks go into reverse and the rise in US national debt thanks to President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, according to Jonathan Butler, an analyst at Mitsubishi.
然而，三菱(Mitsubishi)分析师乔纳森•巴特勒(Jonathan Butler)表示，为了对冲股市涨势逆转以及美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)减税政策推动美国国债上涨的风险，投资者仍可能追捧黄金。
As we go into 2018, gold bulls will take some comfort from data that suggest investors have remained loyal to the precious metal. Investor holdings in gold-backed exchange traded funds have climbed 11 per cent this year to 71.4m troy ounces, according to Bloomberg.
随着我们进入2018年，黄金多头将从表明投资者依然追捧黄金的数据中获得一些安慰。据彭博(Bloomberg)报道，投资者持有的黄金ETF在2017年增长了11%，至7140万盎司。
Palladium 钯
Palladium has been the best performing commodity this year, surging by more than 50 per cent to a 17-year high, as drivers switch from diesel to petrol cars, which use the metal in their catalysts.
钯是2017年表现最好的大宗商品，随着驾车者从柴油车转向汽油车——汽油车的催化剂中会使用钯——钯价上涨超过50%，至17年来的新高。
In contrast, platinum, which is used in diesel car catalysts fell to a 22-month low in December of $870 a troy ounce.
相比之下，用于柴油车催化剂的铂金价格在去年12月份跌至22个月来的低点，为每盎司870美元。
Palladium’s stellar performance has made the metal more expensive than platinum for the first time since 2001, raising fears that carmakers will switch and start to use the cheaper platinum in catalysts.
钯金的出色表现使得其价格自2001年以来首次超过铂金，这使得人们担心，汽车制造商会转而开始在催化剂中使用更便宜的铂金。
The big question for 2018 is whether that trend unfolds. The industry-sponsored World Platinum Investment Council said in November that it had “anecdotal evidence” that carmakers are considering switching from palladium to platinum. Any sign of switching is “likely have a considerable impact on short to medium-term platinum demand should it come to fruition”, it says.
2018年的一大问题是这种趋势是否会展开。业内资助的世界铂金投资委员会(World Platinum Investment Council)曾在去年11月表示，“有坊间证据”表明，汽车制造商正在考虑用铂替代钯。它表示，任何转换迹象如果变成现实，就“可能对中短期铂金需求产生相当大的影响”。
Still, the advent of electric cars poses a risk to both palladium and platinum, because they use no catalysts.
不过，电动汽车的出现给钯和铂带来了风险，因为它们不使用任何催化剂。
