2018年科技业大走势
如果你想知道2018年科技界最大的商业主题是什么，忘了无人驾驶汽车、增强现实眼镜和语音控制计算机吧。
Those inventions generate eye-catching headlines, but the main engines of growth for the biggest tech companies in 2018 are ones that have already become a deeply ingrained part of business life: digital advertising, ecommerce and the wholesale move of global IT to the cloud.
这些发明制造了吸引眼球的热点新闻，但2018年科技巨头们的主要增长引擎早已成为商业生活根深蒂固的一部分，它们分别是数字广告、电子商务，以及全球IT界向“云”的集体进军。
It is always dangerous to put too much faith in extrapolation, but some trends in digitisation are hard to ignore. They are driven by the emergence of a pervasive technology infrastructure and a preference among users for the convenience of digital services. They also reflect the willingness of more businesses to operate on platforms built by companies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon — as well as China’s emerging tech giants Alibaba and Tencent.
过分相信推测向来都是危险的，但数字化的一些趋势很难被忽视。无处不在的科技基础设施和用户对数字服务便利的偏好推动了这些趋势发展。它们也反映了有越来越多企业愿意在谷歌(Google)、Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)以及中国科技巨头阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)等公司搭建的平台上运营。
Consider advertising. About 40 per cent of global ad spending is currently devoted to digital channels — only a slightly higher proportion than accounted for by TV. The superior targeting and potential for interactivity of digital networks should continue that shift.
先来说广告，目前全球约40%的广告支出投向数字渠道，仅略高于电视渠道占比。数字网络出众的定向能力和互动潜力应该会继续推动这种转变。
Advertising has also become the prime example of digital platform dominance. Just two companies — Google and Facebook — account for almost all of the net increase in digital ad spending over the past two years. The pace of digitisation will slow if couch potatoes cling to their TV habits, and others may carve off a bigger slice of the video advertising pie, but the underlying shift feels inexorable.
广告也成为数字平台取得优势地位的最好例证。在过去两年中，谷歌和Facebook两家公司几乎瓜分了数字广告支出的全部净增长。如果沙发土豆们依然保持痴迷电视的习惯，数字化速度将会放缓，其他渠道可能也会分走视频广告更多份额，但基本的转变趋势应该是不可阻挡的。
A lower share of the world’s retail sales has found its way online, leaving plenty of room for growth. Ecommerce accounts for about 14 per cent of sales in the US and 9 per cent in western Europe, according to Goldman Sachs. In China, the figure is 22 per cent.
全球零售销售中网络销售的占比还较低，留出了足够的增长空间。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)数据，电子商务在美国的销售额占比约为14%，在西欧为9%。在中国这个数字是22%。
As with the leading advertising platforms, Amazon has been exhibiting some of the winner-takes-all characteristics that come with digital dominance. Its growth rate has accelerated as it has grown, not slowed.
与几大广告平台一样，亚马逊也一直展现出数字优势带来的赢家通吃的特点。其增速随着它的增长还在加快，而不是放缓。
Meanwhile, a recent Goldman survey found that only about 19 per cent of the computing workloads carried out by large multinational companies have moved into the cloud. The sunk cost of the existing IT infrastructure will mean that the transition to cloud computing will take many years to play out. But with global IT spending set to reach $3.7tn next year, according to Gartner, the size of the business opportunity is massive.
与此同时，高盛最近一项调查发现，大型跨国公司的计算量只有19%转移到云端。现有IT基础设施的沉没成本意味着向云计算过渡将需要很多年。但据Gartner数据，2018年全球IT支出将达到3.7万亿美元，这一商机的规模是巨大的。
The US platform companies that have positioned themselves to ride these waves are ending 2017 as the world’s five most valuable groups: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook. And even with Apple expected to show barely any revenue growth in 2018, these companies are forecast to add $100bn in sales between them next year — a collective growth rate of 14 per cent.
苹果(Apple)、谷歌、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊和Facebook这五大公司将自己定位为这些趋势的弄潮儿的美国平台公司，2017年成了全球价值最高的五大集团。而且尽管苹果预计2018年几乎实现不了任何收入增长，这些公司预计2018年仍将增加总计1000亿美元的销售额，集体增长率为14%。
So what are the main risks? It may be that, in 2018, intimations of mortality will become more apparent. Apple has struggled to show where it will find growth beyond the smartphone. Google has yet to repeat its search advertising success in other markets. Microsoft still has one foot planted in the old PC world.
那么主要风险是什么?在2018年，死亡的征兆可能会变得更加明显。苹果一直在艰难展现自己在智能手机领域之外还有什么增长方向。谷歌还未能把它在搜索广告上的成功复制到其他市场上。微软的一只脚仍然深深陷在古老的PC世界。
The most immediate threat could be external. European regulators and courts have led the way in pushing back against the power and wealth of the tech giants, from last year’s €13bn penalty over Apple’s preferential tax position in Ireland to this month’s ruling that Uber should be regulated as a transport company. In between came a record antitrust fine against Google.
最直接的威胁可能来自外部。欧洲监管机构和法院已经率先对科技巨头的权力和财富发起反击——从去年就苹果在爱尔兰享受税收优惠地位一事罚款130亿欧元、到上个月裁决优步(Uber)应该被视为运输公司来监管。期间还有针对谷歌开出的创纪录的反垄断罚款。
The spotlight has now shifted to Washington, thanks in no small part to the political outcry over Russia’s use of Facebook to influence last year’s US presidential election. Privately, all the big tech companies are braced for regulatory action, though in the current febrile US political climate, it is hard to see exactly what form that will take.
由于美国政界就俄罗斯利用Facebook影响去年美国总统大选的强烈抗议，现在焦点已经转向了华盛顿。私下里，所有大型科技公司都已准备好面对监管行动，不过以目前美国躁动不安的政治气氛，很难确切地预见政府将采取何种行动。
The gathering political clouds in the US should also help to accentuate the rise of China’s tech leaders. These companies have succeeded in aligning themselves closely with the interests of their state and enjoy a domestic market that is largely insulated from foreign competition.
美国不断上升的政治不确定性应该也有助于突显中国科技领头羊的崛起。这些中国科技企业成功实现了与国家利益的紧密结合，享有与外国竞争基本隔绝的国内市场。
They have yet to step fully on to the world stage, despite recent investments in Snap and Spotify among others. But by the end of 2018, there is a good chance that their global aspirations will have become much more apparent.
尽管这些中国科技企业最近投资了Snap和Spotify等公司，但目前它们还没有完全踏上世界舞台。但是到2018年底，这些中国科技企业的全球抱负很可能会变得更加明显。
