Lex专栏：滴滴的天价估值说明什么

All hail the glorious future of ride-hailing domination. It is unclear what investors are hoping for when they sink $4bn into Didi Chuxing, a Chinese giant in the field. But a funding round that values the private group at $56bn requires bold assumptions about market power.

欢呼叫车服务主导一切的辉煌未来。人们不清楚投资者向该领域的中国巨擘滴滴出行(Didi Chuxing)投资40亿美元的意图是什么。但通过这轮募资，这家私有集团的估值达到了560亿美元，这意味着人们需要对其市场威力做出大胆假设。

Didi, China’s market leader, wants to use its new cash to fuel expansion, buy electric vehicles, build charging points and invest in artificial intelligence. Didi could also take on Uber overseas after forcing the US giant out of China.

滴滴是中国叫车市场的领导者，该公司希望利用此次筹得的资金推动扩张，购买电动车，建造充电桩以及投资人工智能。滴滴也可能在境外市场挑战优步(Uber)，此前，滴滴已迫使这家美国巨擘退出中国市场。

That battle involves a complicated relationship. SoftBank, a participant in the round alongside a sovereign fund, had already invested in Didi. It also has stakes in Uber and rivals such as India’s Ola and Southeast Asian group Grab.

这场鏖战牵涉到的关系错综复杂。与一家主权基金共同参与此轮滴滴筹资的软银集团(SoftBank)此前已是滴滴的投资者。但软银也持有优步及滴滴其它竞争对手的股份，如印度的Ola和东南亚的Grab。

Oddly for two rivals, Uber and Didi own stakes in each other. The latter has also invested in Ola and Grab.

对优步和滴滴这两家竞争对手而言，奇怪的是它们互相持有对方的股份。同时滴滴也投资于Ola和Grab。

To justify a valuation on the scale of Didi’s will require the company to one day be responsible for tens of billions of rides a year. That means taking market share from Uber, a reasonable hope at a time when it has been hit by various ethical scandals, but a harder long-term aspiration.

要证明滴滴估值规模的合理性，将需要该公司有朝一日每年服务于数百亿次出行。那将意味着抢走优步的市场份额，在优步受到各种道德丑闻打击之际，这是一个合理愿景，但作为一项长期抱负难度就会更大。

Another alternative would be to charge higher prices, once dominance of individual markets has been achieved by driving out weaker competitors. Yet the existence of a few very well-funded groups suggests it will be hard to reach such an equilibrium without the help of rivals. That would definitely attract the attention of watchdogs, who, like Lex, see them as lightly regulated taxi companies.

另一个选择是抬高收费标准，只要滴滴能将处于弱势地位的竞争对手们驱逐出各个市场。然而，好几家资金雄厚的集团仍然存在，似乎表明若没有对手的帮助，将很难达到这样的均衡状态。而那肯定会引起监管者的注意，他们就像本专栏一样，把这些公司视为监管宽松的出租车企业。

Or there are the investor fantasies which involve a dose of science fiction. The swift rise to power of the big ride-hailing groups seems to lead to an assumption they could dominate fleets of autonomous vehicles as well.

抑或投资者在做白日梦，而且这些梦带有一定程度的科幻含量。大型叫车集团的快速崛起似乎引发了一个假设，即它们也有望支配自动驾驶车队。

If investors are willing to throw money at transport dominance now, what else is likely to get billions in funding as the technology develops? As long as the music plays, investors will dream big and keep paying.

如果说投资者现在愿意向运输霸主地位砸钱，那么随着技术的发展，还有什么可能获得巨额资金?只要音乐在继续演奏，投资者就会大胆做梦，并继续砸钱。