退欧之后伦敦仍将吸引欧洲人才

It is easy to feel gloomy about the fate of London after Brexit. Since the referendum result was declared, the capital’s residents have anxiously debated what will happen when the flow of European workers to their city is suddenly restricted: who will make their coffee, programme their software, build their houses and staff their hospitals?

人们很容易对伦敦在英国退欧之后的命运感到悲观。自从公投结果出炉以来，英国首都的市民们一直在忧心忡忡地辩论，如果流向该市的欧洲员工突然受限会发生什么?谁还会给他们做咖啡、为他们的软件编写程序、建造他们的房屋和在医院护理他们?

It is true that with just under a million EU residents, London potentially has the most to lose from the end to free movement which is almost certain to accompany the split from Brussels.

确实，伦敦目前拥有略少于100万的欧盟居民，因此伦敦可能是欧盟人员自由流动终止(在英国脱离欧盟后，这个局面几乎肯定会出现)的最大受害者。

The capital is home to 13 per cent of the UK’s population but a third of its EU citizens. As the government has increased visa curbs on migrants from outside Europe, London’s employers have become ever more reliant on the unlimited supply of workers from the continent.

伦敦人口占整个英国总人口的13%，但居住在伦敦的欧盟公民占英国总数的三分之一。在政府收紧对欧洲以外移民的签证限制之际，伦敦的雇主已经变得越来越依赖欧洲大陆提供源源不断的劳动者。

Meanwhile, Londoners are on average far more pro-migration and pro-Remain than their fellow Britons, so are likely to feel the loss of diversity more keenly. But amongst the angst, one crucial point may be forgotten: that the capital is actually much better placed to survive a restrictive new immigration regime than other parts of the country.

与此同时，伦敦人一般要比其他地区的英国人更支持移民和留在欧盟。因此，他们可能会更真切地感受到多元化的丧失。但在这种忧虑中，人们可能忘记了一个关键问题：与英国其他地区相比，首都实际上处于有利得多的地位，能够承受新的、限制性的移民体制。

In fact, Londoners should be reassured that for all types of European migrants — workers, spouses, and students — the capital may remain a far easier place than the regions to work and settle.

实际上，伦敦人应该放心：对于各类欧洲移民(员工、配偶和学生)，伦敦可能仍是比英国其他地方容易得多的工作和定居地点。

We know this because a leaked Home Office plan for post-Brexit immigration has provided some insight into the hurdles that EU migrants will face in future.

我们知道这点，是因为英国内政部(Home Office)一份被泄露的有关退欧后的移民计划，让我们对欧盟移民未来将面临的障碍有所了解。

To qualify for a work permit, skilled workers from the continent will probably have to earn above a fixed salary threshold. To bring a foreign spouse into the UK, they will definitely have to prove an income high enough to support them. So for both employment and family unification, being in London — where wages are nearly a third higher than the national average — is likely to be a significant advantage.

要符合工作许可资格，来自欧洲大陆的高技能员工可能必须赚到超过某个固定薪资门槛的收入。要把外籍配偶带到英国，他们肯定必须证明自己的收入足够承担家庭生活开销。因此，对于就业和家庭团聚两大类，身在伦敦可能是一项重大优势，因为伦敦的薪资比英国平均水平高出近三分之一。

Universities based in the capital should also find it easier to attract EU students than institutions across the rest of the country. This is partly due to the quality of London’s academic centres: it has three of the UK’s top universities — Imperial College, University College London and the London School of Economics. Early indications about the effect of Brexit on student numbers suggest that while applications from EU students to British universities fell by about 5 per cent on average in the year following the referendum, at Imperial, EU applications rose by 5 per cent. The falling value of the pound has also made London better value as a study destination compared with other international capitals.

位于首都的大学也应该发现，它们要比英国其他学府更容易吸引欧盟学生。部分原因是伦敦学术机构的质量：伦敦拥有英国最顶尖的3所大学，帝国理工学院(Imperial College)、伦敦大学学院(University College London)和伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)。有关英国退欧对学生数量影响的早期迹象显示，尽管在公投后第二年申请英国大学的欧盟学生数量平均减少约5%，但在帝国理工学院，欧盟学生的申请数量增加5%。英镑贬值也让在伦敦留学比其他国际城市具有更高的性价比。

This is not to say that the transition will be easy. Richard Brown, director of research at the Centre for London think-tank, makes clear that freedom of movement is as much about a welcoming, international culture as it is about hard numbers of migrants and the need to fill skills gaps. He fears that any new system in which the flow of Europeans is regulated or “policed” — however lightly — will change the way both Londoners and visitors feel about the capital’s long-established cosmopolitan nature.

这并不是说过渡将是轻松的。英国智库Centre for London研究总监理查德•布朗(Richard Brown)明确表示，人员自由流动既是关于硬性的移民人数限制和填补技能缺口的需要，也是从容友善的、国际视野的文化。他担心，任何新的受监管或管制的欧洲人员流动体系(不管多么宽松)，都将改变伦敦人和外来人员双方对于英国首都长期以来的大都市风范的感觉。

Meanwhile, London businesses and lobby groups have expressed understandable concerns about an under-supply of lower-skilled EU workers who would not meet income thresholds if these are imposed. It is the loss of these workers — rather than high-flying financiers — which will have the most impact on Londoners’ day-to-day lifestyles.

与此同时，伦敦企业和游说组织表达了对低技能欧盟员工供应不足的担忧，这是可以理解的，如果实施准入标准，他们将达不到收入门槛。失去这些员工(而非趾高气扬的金融家)将对伦敦人的日常生活方式造成最严重影响。

Businesses argue that current record employment levels mean there are simply not enough Britons available to perform these roles. Their answer is that the government should create an array of exceptional visas for Europeans working in key low-paid sectors, from technology start-ups to care homes, coffee shops and construction sites.

企业辩称，目前创纪录的就业水平意味着根本没有足够的英国人承担这些工作。他们提议，政府应该为在关键低薪行业工作的欧洲人提供一系列特殊签证，从科技初创企业到养老院、咖啡厅和建筑工地。

Even in recruiting for these jobs, London has advantages over the rest of the country. Young foreign workers wanting to improve their English during a short spell in Britain may well prefer a stint in an exciting capital city to one in a rural outpost. Potential migrants can also be confident that London, as a Remain stronghold, is more likely to embrace them than other regions which voted for Brexit.

就连在为这些岗位招聘员工时，伦敦也具备相对于英国其他地区的优势。希望在短时间内在英国提高英语水平的年轻外籍员工，很有可能更喜欢在令人振奋的首都工作一段时间，而不是去某个偏远农村地区。潜在移民还有可能相信，与投票支持退欧的英国其他地区相比，伦敦作为一个留欧阵营的据点，更有可能接纳他们。

Overall, the real cause for anxiety is not London’s labour shortage but that of the UK’s industrial heartlands, which tend to be wary of migrants but could struggle to meet the need for skills in a newly “independent” UK. By contrast, the capital might grieve for its lost ties to the union, but at least it is dynamic enough to keep drawing in the talented foreigners that it both wants and needs.

总的来说，真正令人焦虑的并不是伦敦遭遇劳动力短缺，而是英国工业地带的劳动力短缺，这些地方的英国人往往对移民感到担忧，但可能难以在一个新的“独立”英国满足技能需求。相比之下，英国首都可能会为丧失与欧盟的联系而哀伤，但至少它有足够的活力，能够继续吸引它想要和需要的优秀外国人才。