美国对朝动武尚面临后勤难题

Escalating US rhetoric towards North Korea this year has stoked fears of war but Donald Trump’s threats of “fire and fury” have yet to be matched by the logistical and military build-up that would almost certainly precede any strike.

今年美国对朝鲜言论的升级引起了人们对战争的恐惧，但唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“火与怒”威胁尚未得到后勤行动与军事集结的配合。美国在发动任何打击之前，几乎肯定要进行后勤行动与军事集结。

While the US could launch some kind of pinprick attack on an individual target without the need for huge firepower, experts say the Pentagon would have to prepare for the possibility of serious retaliation.

尽管美国可以在不需要大量火力的情况下对某个目标发动某种定点攻击，但专家们表示，五角大楼(Pentagon)将不得不为可能的严厉报复做好准备。

With more than 200,000 US citizens in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan, Washington would almost certainly want to conduct an evacuation. But this would be a big logistical operation and could itself be the trigger for pre-emptive action by Kim Jong Un’s nuclear-armed regime.

由于韩国有20多万美国公民，日本还有5万美国公民，华盛顿方面几乎肯定要撤离他们。但这将是一次大规模后勤行动，本身就可能刺激拥核的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权采取先发制人的行动。

The logistical complexity serves as a reminder of why the US and its allies have long discounted the possibility of an attack — something that could lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and widespread economic disruption

后勤行动的复杂程度提醒了人们，为何美国及其盟友长期以来并不考虑发动攻击的可能性——这可能导致数十万人丧生以及大范围的经济破坏。

A huge complicating factor for the US is the difficultly in locating North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Even if the US knew where they were, the only way to destroy them without visible preparations would be a nuclear first strike, launched by stealth aircraft flying from the US mainland, argues one former US military officer who has worked in the region.

对美国而言，一个巨大的复杂因素是难以找到朝鲜的核武器。一位曾在该地区服役的美国军官表示，即使美国知道它们在哪里，没有明显准备就能摧毁它们的唯一方式，将是由美国大陆起飞的隐形飞机发起第一波核攻击。

Mr Blair, who has served as the head of the US intelligence community, said it was “inconceivable that the US would use nuclear weapons” to launch a pre-emptive strike. “It just would be such a Pandora’s box and would make us the first country in history to use nuclear weapons for coercive purposes since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which is absolutely the wrong signal to send.”

前美国国家情报总监丹尼斯•布莱尔(Dennis Blair)表示，“美国将使用核武器实施一次先发制人的打击，这是不可想象的。”他说：“这将成为潘多拉的盒子，将让我们成为历史上自广岛和长崎以来第一个为达成强制目而使用核武器的国家。这绝对会发出错误信号。”

The US would be more likely to look at other options, from precision strikes on weapons facilities to a wider assault aimed at regime change.

美国将更有可能考虑其他选项——从对武器设施的精确打击到旨在改变朝鲜政权的更广泛攻击。

Dennis Wilder, a former senior CIA analyst and Asia adviser to George W Bush, believes the US could, for example, attempt to destroy the facility near Pyongyang where North Korea fuelled and stored the recently fired Hwasong 15 intercontinental ballistic missile.

例如，曾任美国中情局(CIA)前高级分析师、小布什(George W Bush)亚洲事务顾问的韦德宁(Dennis Wilder)认为，美国可能会试图摧毁平壤附近的一处设施——朝鲜不久前试射的“火星-15”(Hwasong 15)型洲际弹道导弹曾存放在该设施，并在那里添加燃料。

The problem for Washington, however, is that there is no guarantee that North Korea would not respond with a barrage of artillery fire on Seoul. As such, visible preparations — both offensive and defensive — would precede any strike, according to military experts.

然而，美国的问题在于无法保证朝鲜不会做出回应、对首尔进行一系列炮火攻击。同样，军事专家们表示，在发动任何攻击之前，美国都会进行明显的准备(无论攻击性的还是防御性的)。

According to operational plans for war with North Korea, nearly 700,000 US soldiers would be mobilised alongside 160 ships, 1,600 aircraft and about 2.7m South Korean reservists, said Kim Yeol-soo, head of security at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. Strategic assets, such as aircraft carriers, F-22 jets and B1-B bombers, would also be deployed.

韩国军事问题研究院(Korea Institute for Military Affairs)安全问题研究主管Kim Yeol-soo表示，根据对朝作战计划，除了160艘舰船、1600架飞机和大约270万名韩国预备役军人，还将动员将近70万美国士兵。美国也将部署航空母舰、F-22战斗机和B1-B轰炸机等战略性装备。

Such assets are occasionally used in training exercises on the peninsula, which North Korea bitterly criticises as precursors to an invasion. When F-22 Raptor jets participated in air drills this month, Pyongyang said the “outbreak of war” had become an “established fact”.

这类装备有时会在针对朝鲜半岛的训练演习中使用，朝鲜强烈批评此举是侵略的前奏。当F-22“猛禽”战斗机参加本月的空军演练时，朝鲜表示，“战争的爆发”已成为一条“既定事实”。