德国人的经济观没错
欧元危机最严重的时候，意大利前总理马里奥•蒙蒂(Mario Monti)喜欢说，部分问题在于“对德国人而言，经济学仍是道德哲学的一部分”。他的言下之意是，德国人的本能是责怪别人，而非解决问题——他接着又提醒人们，德语中“罪”和“债”是同一个词。
But the real punchline is that the Germans are right. Economics is — or should be — part of moral philosophy.
但这句妙语的真正点睛之处在于，德国人没错——经济学是(或者说应该是)道德哲学的一部分。
Successful politicians have to do more than just deliver economic growth. They also need to offer voters a vision of the economy that makes moral sense — in which virtue is rewarded and vice is punished. Ever since the financial crisis 10 years ago, mainstream politicians in the west have lost that vital ability. The belief that the economic system is unjust has stoked the rise of rightwing and leftwing populism across the west.
成功的政治人物要做的不仅仅是带来经济增长。他们还需要为选民提供一种在道德上说得通的经济愿景——在这种愿景中，美德会得到回报，罪恶会受到惩罚。自10年前金融危机爆发以来，西方主流政治人物已经丧失这一至关重要的能力。认为当前经济制度不公正的观点，助长了西方各国右翼和左翼民粹主义的兴起。
As Mr Monti implied, the idea that economics needs to be rooted in a moral system is nothing new. Adam Smith, arguably the most important economic thinker ever, was a professor of moral philosophy at Glasgow University. His famous observation that individuals working on their own behalf would contribute to the general good, is underpinned by a theory of moral sentiments.
正如蒙蒂的话所暗示的，经济学需要扎根于道德体系的观点并不新鲜。堪称史上最重要经济思想家的亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)，当年就是格拉斯哥大学(Glasgow University)的道德哲学教授。他的著名观点——为自身利益工作的个人，将为整体利益作出贡献——是由他的“道德情操论”支撑的。
Karl Marx’s followers went to the barricades because they believed that communism was morally superior to capitalism — not because they were inspired by Marxist economics. Friedrich Hayek was a passionate anti-Marxist, who won the Nobel Prize for economics. He was also a moral philosopher, whose The Road to Serfdom made an ethical case against state control of the economy.
卡尔•马克思(Karl Marx)的追随者们走上街头革命，因为他们相信共产主义在道德上优于资本主义——而非因为他们受到马克思主义经济学的启迪。诺贝尔经济学奖得主弗里德里希•哈耶克(Friedrich Hayek)是一位充满激情的反马克思主义者。他也是一位道德哲学家，他撰写的《通往奴役之路》(The Road to Serfdom)从道德角度出发，驳斥了国家控制经济的体制。
Until the shocks of 2008, centrist politicians in the west were able to offer a morally coherent view of the economy that delivered them electoral success. A free-market economy was held to reward effort and success and to spread opportunity. Globalisation — the creation of a global market system — was defended as a moral project, since it involved reducing inequality and poverty across the world.
在2008年的大冲击之前，西方中间派政治人物拿得出一套在道德上能够自圆其说的经济观念，这让他们赢得选举。坚持自由市场经济是为了奖励努力和成功，并让更多人获得机会。全球化(创建全球市场体系)被捍卫者称为一项道德工程，因为它涉及在世界各地消除不平等和贫困。
After the financial crisis, however, the “globalists” (to use a Trumpian term) began to lose the moral arguments. The fact that banks were bailed out as living standards stagnated, offended many voters’ idea of natural justice. When nobody at the apex of a failed system was sent to jail, the door was opened for a politician, such as Donald Trump, who argued that “the system is rigged”.
然而，金融危机之后，“全球主义者”(借用特朗普的术语)开始在道德上失据。银行纷纷得到救助而民众生活水平停滞不前，这一事实冒犯了许多选民对自然正义的理解。当一个失败体制的最高层没有任何人被投入监狱，宣称“体制受到操纵”的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)这样的政客就有了号召力。
The success or failure of Mr Trump’s tax reforms, which are likely to go through this week, will depend to a great extent on whether he can convince voters that he is helping to make the system fairer. The Republican argument is that the new taxation system will reward hard work and reduce the burden of the state. The Democrats’ response is that the new tax reforms further rig the system in favour of the rich.
特朗普税改(很可能在本周获得通过)的成败，在很大程度上将取决于他能否让选民相信，他正在帮助使这一体制更加公平。共和党辩称，新税制将奖励辛勤工作，并减轻国家负担。民主党人的回应是，新的税改将朝着有利于富人的方向进一步操纵体制。
At the moment, a majority of Americans seem to agree with the proposition that the Trump tax reforms largely favour the wealthy. If that interpretation takes hold, voters may drift away from the rightwing populism of Mr Trump, towards the leftwing populism of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The Sanders and Warren campaigns have also capitalised on the sense that America’s economic system is rigged. They have focused in particular on generational injustice — which leaves many young voters burdened with student debt and insecure jobs.
眼下，大多数美国人似乎都认同这样一个观点，即特朗普税改主要照顾富人。如果这种解释站稳脚跟，选民可能会告别特朗普的右翼民粹主义，转投伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和伊丽莎白•沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)的左翼民粹主义。桑德斯和沃伦的竞选活动也利用了美国经济体制被操纵的感觉。他们格外关注代际不公正——这使得很多年轻选民背负着学生贷款的重担，而工作又不稳定。
These arguments resonate not just in the US but right across the west. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party and the Brexiters seized the banner of rightwing populism, while the leftwing populism of Jeremy Corbyn took control of the Labour party. In France, the rightwing and leftwing populism of Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon respectively captured more than 40 per cent of the vote in the first round of this year’s presidential election. Add in other fringe parties and some 50 per cent of the French, British and American electorates are now clearly tempted by populist, anti-system politicians.
这些观点不仅在美国引起共鸣，在西方各国都很盛行。在英国，奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)领导的英国独立党(UKIP)等退欧派扛起了右翼民粹主义的旗帜，而左翼民粹主义的杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)控制了工党(Labour)。在法国，右翼民粹主义的马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)和左翼民粹主义的让-吕克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)在今年总统大选的第一轮投票中总计得到了40%以上的选票。再加上其他边缘政党，法国、英国和美国都有大约50%的选民如今明显受到民粹主义的反体制政客的诱惑。
In Germany, however, the rightwing and leftwing variants of populism are still getting well under 25 per cent of the vote — despite the radicalising effect of the refugee crisis. In part, that is down to the success of the German economy. But it is also because Angela Merkel, the chancellor, realised that, in handling the euro crisis, she had to take account of ordinary voters’ sense of right and wrong. Many economists in the US and southern Europe argued that the crisis could only be solved by formally writing off a lot of Greek debt. They also made the case that German bankers were more to blame for the crisis than Greek pensioners. But Ms Merkel knew that, inside Germany, the argument that hard-working Germans should not be asked to write off the debts of wasteful Greeks was too powerful to tackle head-on. She could only make progress in tackling the euro crisis by respecting basic ideas about effort and reward.
然而在德国，尽管难民危机带来了激进化的影响，但右翼和左翼民粹主义代表得到的选票仍然远低于25%。在某种程度上，这可以归因于德国经济的成功。但这也是因为德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)在处理欧元危机时意识到，她必须考虑到普通选民的是非感。当时美国以及南欧的很多经济学家认为，欧元危机只能通过正式大规模注销希腊债务的方式解决。他们还指出，相比希腊退休者，德国的银行家对那场危机负有更大责任。但是默克尔知道，德国国内很多人认为，辛勤工作的德国人不应该被要求减记铺张浪费的希腊人的债务，这种观点太过强大，不宜正面对抗。她只有尊重关于努力和回报的基本理念，才能在解决欧元危机问题上取得进展。
A whole generation of western politicians has grown up with the Clintonian slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid”, ringing in their heads. But in today’s politics, “the economy” is not just about growth. It is also about justice.
整整一代的西方政客在成长过程中深受克林顿的口号“笨蛋，关键在于经济”的影响。但在当今的政治中，“经济”不只关乎增长。它也关乎公正。
