美中就应对朝鲜政权崩溃可能性举行磋商
美国和中国探讨了一度是禁忌的话题：在朝鲜政权崩溃的情况下如何展开合作?这个迹象表明北京方面正在认真对待朝鲜半岛战争威胁。
Previously Beijing had refused to discuss contingency plans for a North Korea conflict, for fear of worsening an already tense relationship with Pyongyang. Such a move might also provoke members of China’s nationalist-minded elite, who can regard such talks as conspiring against a communist ally.
以往北京方面拒绝讨论针对朝鲜冲突的应急预案，担心这可能使中朝之间本已紧张的关系变得更糟。这样的举动也可能惹恼中国某些民族主义意识较强的精英阶层成员，这些人可能把这样的磋商视为合谋反对一个共产党盟友。
However, last month the first such discussions were held in Washington between the Chinese and US militaries. Major General Shao Yuanming, deputy chief of China’s joint staff department, met Lieutenant General Richard Clarke of the US joint chiefs of staff for the first meeting of a new “China-US joint staff dialogue mechanism”, according to China’s ministry of defence.
然而，上月中美军方在华盛顿举行了首次这样的讨论。根据中国国防部发布的消息，中国中央军委联合参谋部副参谋长邵元明少将与美国参谋长联席会议(Joint Chiefs of Staff)的理查德•克拉克(Richard Clarke)中将，在新的“中美两军联合参谋部对话机制”下举行了首次会议。
The talks had been agreed in August when General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, travelled to Beijing, according to Chinese analysts and officials.
据中国分析人士和官员透露，这一对话机制是在美国参谋长联席会议主席约瑟夫•邓福德(Joseph Dunford)上将8月访华期间商定的。
Whether North Korea was raised at these talks was unclear until last Tuesday, when Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state, said during remarks at the Atlantic Council that the US had assured China that it would not occupy North Korea in the event of a conflict.
外界原来不清楚双方在会上有没有谈到朝鲜问题，但在上周二，美国国务卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)发表演讲期间表示，美国已向中国作出保证：如果发生冲突，美国不会占领朝鲜。
“We have given the Chinese assurances we would . . . retreat back to the south of the 38th parallel,” he said, referring to the border between the two Koreas.
“我方已经给了中方保证，我们会……撤回到三八线以南，”他表示。三八线指的是韩朝边界。
Paul Haenle, a former US National Security Council official under President George W Bush, said China’s appetite to hold such talks was new. “In the Bush administration we tried to have those conversations and the Chinese were very reluctant to engage.
曾在乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)手下的国家安全委员会(National Security Council)任职的韩磊(Paul Haenle)表示，中国愿意举行这类磋商是一件新事。“在布什政府时期，我们曾试图进行这些对话，而中方非常不愿意参与。
“They didn’t want to be perceived as doing secret planning with the United States about the collapse of the regime because they thought it would make the situation worse. But I think they’re probably more willing to have those conversations today,.
“他们不希望被视为与美国一道就平壤政权倒台作出秘密计划，因为他们认为那会使情况变得更糟。但我认为，如今他们可能更愿意进行这些对话。”
Meanwhile, South Korean media reported on Monday that China last year conducted a military exercise where it practised taking control of nuclear facilities similar to North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor.
与此同时，据韩国媒体周一报道，去年中国进行了一次军事演习，演练了控制类似朝鲜宁边反应堆的核设施的作战。
China’s ministry of defence did not immediately respond to request for comment.
中国国防部没有立即回应记者的置评请求。
Jia Qingguo, dean of the Peking University School of International Studies, said the main factors keeping Chinese leaders from talking to the US in the past were lack of trust and the low probability of a conflict. But today they believe a crisis in North Korea is more probable.
北京大学国际关系学院院长贾庆国表示，过去阻止中国领导人与美国交谈的主要因素是缺乏信任和爆发冲突的可能性较小。但如今他们相信朝鲜爆发危机的几率更高了。
Military co-ordination between the US and China is still a sensitive matter — Beijing is technically part of a military alliance with Pyongyang that dates from 1961. Though few believe China would come to its neighbour’s aid in the event of a conflict, China is unlikely to stay on the sidelines, either.
中美之间的军事协调仍然是一个敏感问题——从技术上讲，中朝从1961年起一直是一个军事联盟。尽管很少有人相信中国会在冲突中帮助邻国，但中国也不太可能坐在一边观望。
Chinese analysts say a probable Chinese response to conflict would be to occupy a zone inside the Chinese border with North Korea along the Yalu river, perhaps tens of kilometres deep, to stem tides of refugees.
中国分析人士认为，面对一场冲突，中国很有可能作出的回应是在沿着鸭绿江的中朝边境中国境内划出一个缓冲区，其纵深可能有数十公里，以便堵住难民人潮。
“When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, China must be more willing to consider talks with concerned countries on contingency plans,” Mr Jia wrote in September.
贾庆国在9月撰文写道，战争或已成为一种现实可能，中国必须防患于未然;现在中国政府应更多地着眼于与相关国家磋商并制定应急方案。
Yun Sun, a senior associate with the East Asia programme of the Stimson Center, a Washington-based security think-tank, said that any discussion between the US and China on North Korea would by definition be vague at this stage.
华盛顿安全问题智库史汀生中心(Stimson Center)东亚项目高级研究员孙云表示，现阶段中美之间就朝鲜进行的任何讨论都必然是模糊的。
“There is a big difference between contingency planning and conversations about contingencies,” she said.
“应急规划和关于突发事件的对话之间有很大区别，”她表示。
Additional reporting by Sherry Ju 俱菲(Sherry Ju)补充报道
