中哈边境贸易现状与“一带一路”雄心

Soaring mountains and golden plains surround the nascent city of Khorgos, one of the most important land transport hubs planned for China’s New Silk Road.

崇山峻岭和金色的平原环绕着年轻的霍尔果斯市，这里是中国“新丝绸之路”倡议中规划的最重要陆路交通枢纽之一。

But despite hundreds of millions of dollars of investment, the majority of traders here on China’s border with Kazakhstan, among the planet’s furthest points from the ocean, still rely on maritime routes to receive imported goods.

然而，尽管吸引了以数亿美元计的投资，这里的大多数贸易商仍依靠海运来接收进口货物。霍尔果斯市地处中国与哈萨克斯坦接壤的边境地区，是地球上距离海洋最远的地区之一。

“I would rather my goods take 10 times as long to get to Khorgos but be sure they arrive on time,” says Jia Xiubing, who imports European snacks through the Chinese ports of Qingdao and Tianjin, which lie about 4,000km east by road or rail. Traders say Khorgos’s showpiece free trade zone is blighted by chronic delays, high costs and limits on what can be imported.

“我宁愿我的货物多花10倍时间运到霍尔果斯，只要确保能准时运到，”贾秀秉(音)说，他通过青岛港和天津港进口欧洲小食品，这两个中国港口城市距离霍尔果斯大约4000公里的公路或铁路里程。贸易商们表示，霍尔果斯示范性的自由贸易区存在着一些问题，包括拖延时间长、成本高以及进口商品种类受限。

With investments ranging from ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to high-speed railways in east Africa to gas pipelines crossing central Asia, China’s $900bn Belt and Road Initiative is arguably the largest overseas investment drive ever launched by a single country.

从巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡的港口，到东非的高铁，再到穿越中亚的天然气管道，中国提出的拟投资9000亿美元的“一带一路”倡议(Belt and Road Initiative)可以说是单个国家发起的史上最大规模的海外投资行动。

But the problems, along with other logistical difficulties of transporting goods through central Asia to Europe, illustrate the shaky ground beneath China’s ambitious plans to boost its global influence and bolster slowing growth.

但上述那些问题，以及通过中亚向欧洲运输货物过程中物流方面的其他困难，暴露出中国这项提升自身全球影响力和刺激经济增长的宏伟计划缺乏坚实基础。

Khorgos is a crucial hub in the transport network linking China and Europe. By 2020 it will house the world’s largest “dry port”, where 4m tonnes of goods a year can be stored and transferred between Chinese and Kazakh trains, which run on a different gauge.

霍尔果斯是连接中国与欧洲的运输网络的一个重要枢纽。到2020年，这里将建成世界最大的“干港”，每年存放和通过列车转运的货物可达400万吨左右(中哈两国铁路的轨距不同)。

However, it is one of China’s slowest outbound border crossings. Goods take an average of 10.6 hours to cross into Kazakhstan — almost twice as long as those moving in the opposite direction, according to the Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (Carec) programme, a trade organisation.

然而，这里是中国效率最慢的出境口岸之一。贸易组织“中亚区域经济合作”(CAREC)的数据显示，货物进入哈萨克斯坦平均要耗时10.6个小时，几乎是反向通关所用时间的两倍。

“Customs processes are actually very fast on the China side. It is getting goods through the Kazakh side that can be very unpredictable and costs twice as much in customs fees,” says Alim, a Chinese Uighur confectionery trader.

中国维吾尔族糖果贸易商阿利姆(Alim)称：“中方一侧的海关手续实际上非常快。但哈方一侧的货物通关时间非常难料，且通关费用翻倍。”

Most goods have to be unloaded and stored in bonded warehouses, sometimes for days, as they await clearance from the customs regimes either side of the border. The cost of unloading train cargo remains the highest among trade corridors Carec monitors, putting Khorgos among central Asia’s most expensive border crossings.

大多数货物必须卸下，存放在保税仓库中，有时需要数日，因为要等待边界某一边的海关当局清关。这里的货运列车卸货费用在CAREC追踪的贸易走廊中仍是最高的，使霍尔果斯成为中亚通关成本最高的边境口岸之一。

And the problems are not limited to Khorgos, which lies in the Chinese frontier region of Xinjiang that borders three central Asian nations.

而且，这些问题不只存在于霍尔果斯，该市位于中国的新疆境内，这个边疆省份与三个中亚国家毗邻。

A free-trade zone set to open this year in the regional capital of Urumqi has been delayed “because the local government has not been able to decide on logistics operations and a customs regime with partners”, according to a zone employee who declined to be named because of a lack of authorisation to discuss the matter.

原定今年在新疆首府乌鲁木齐开通一个自由贸易区的计划已被推迟，“因为当地政府未能够就物流和海关制度与合作方做出决定”，一位拒绝透露姓名的自贸区雇员表示，他称自己未获授权讨论此事。

Jonathan Hillman, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says: “More efficient border procedures will be key — even more important than building new roads.”

华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心(CSIS)研究员乔纳森•希尔曼(Jonathan Hillman)表示：“更高效的通关程序将是关键——甚至比修建新公路更重要。”

Kazakh officials deny that shipments pass into Kazakhstan slower. Almaty, meanwhile, remains bullish on bilateral ties. Cross-border trade between the two countries increased 100-fold in the five years to 2016 and is on track to double this year to 200,000 containers a year, according to Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry. Kazakh officials say their country accounts for 70 per cent of China-Europe transit traffic.

哈萨克斯坦官员否认进入哈萨克斯坦的通关速度较慢。与此同时，阿拉木图方面仍对双边合作保持乐观态度。哈萨克斯坦外交部表示，两国间跨境贸易在截至2016年的5年间增长了100倍，今年贸易量有望翻倍达到20万个集装箱。哈萨克斯坦官员表示，哈萨克斯坦占到中欧过境贸易的70%。

“The government of Kazakhstan wants to ensure that it continues to develop as a key transportation hub in Eurasia that plays a crucial role in connecting and enabling trade between east and west,” says Roman Vassilenko, deputy foreign minister.

哈萨克斯坦外交部副部长罗曼•瓦西连科(Roman Vassilenko)表示：“哈萨克斯坦政府希望确保本国作为欧亚大陆重要交通枢纽继续发展，在连接东西方和促进贸易方面发挥至关重要的作用。”

But the positive sentiments are not universally shared across the border, where critics believe Kazakhstan has been freeriding on China’s goodwill.

但这种积极情绪在中方一侧并不多见，中国国内的批评人士认为，哈萨克斯坦一直在利用中方的善意搭便车。

Chinese development in Khorgos dwarfs that on the Kazakh side, where only 25 of 63 projects have investors, according to Ravil Budukov, the zone’s former press secretary. “China has provided all the money” for Kazakhstan’s roads and high-speed rail links, says a Chinese trade official in Xinjiang. “And we do not expect anything back.”

霍尔果斯自由贸易区前新闻秘书拉维尔•布杜科夫(Ravil Budukov)称，中国在霍尔果斯的发展令哈萨克斯坦一侧相形见绌，哈方的63个项目中只有25个获得了投资。“中国已向哈萨克斯坦提供了全部资金”用于其公路与高铁线路的修建，新疆的一位贸易官员称，“而且我们完全不求回报。”

While Kazakhstan’s leaders have welcomed Chinese investment, analysts say the country remains deeply suspicious of Beijing’s motives.

虽然哈萨克斯坦的领导人对中国的投资表示欢迎，但分析人士指出，该国对北京方面的动机仍深感怀疑。

“The larger the Chinese presence in central Asia, the stronger the anti-China sentiments,” says Daniyar Kosnazarov, of Narxoz University in Almaty. “Nationalist sentiments and enthusiasm for Chinese investment are living an uneasy coexistence but the ice is getting thinner and thinner.”

“中国在中亚地区的影响力越大，反华情绪就越强，”阿拉木图Narxoz大学的达尼亚尔•科斯纳扎罗夫(Daniyar Kosnazarov)说。“民族主义情绪和对中国投资的热情不和谐地共存，但局面越发紧张。”

In April last year, thousands took to the streets over concerns about legal changes that would allow Chinese investors would buy up valuable real estate. “There is a lot of fear among Kazakhs about the country being overrun by Chinese,” says Dmitriy Frolovskiy, a Moscow-based central Asia analyst. “It has to face the world’s second economy and one of the strongest armies, which could conquer it within days.”

去年4月，数千人走上街头示威，担心法律修订会允许中国的投资者大量买进宝贵的地产。“许多哈萨克人害怕中国人大量涌入他们国家，”莫斯科的一位研究中亚问题的分析师德米特里•弗罗洛夫斯基(Dmitriy Frolovskiy)表示。“哈萨克斯坦不得不面对世界第二大经济体及世界最强大的军队之一，中国的军事力量能在几天之内征服哈萨克斯坦。”

Kazakhstan has traditionally gravitated towards Russia, itself wary of China’s growing clout in central Asia, for political and economic patronage. A deeply Russified cultural legacy remains in the former Soviet republic, with most ethnic Kazakhs on the border using Russian, rather than Mandarin, as the lingua franca of trade.

为得到政治庇护与经济援助，哈萨克斯坦传统上是亲俄的，俄本身就十分提防中国在中亚地区日益增长的影响力。这个前苏维埃社会主义共和国仍保留着俄罗斯化的文化遗产，大多数生活在中哈边境的哈萨克人将俄语、而不是汉语普通话用作贸易通用语。

“People are always going to look after their own interests,” says Su Gang of the Xinjiang Uighur Logistics Association, which monitors trade in the region. “That’s what we call trade protectionism.”

“人们总是关心自身的利益，”新疆维吾尔自治区物流学会(Xinjiang Uighur Logistics Association)的理事苏刚(音)说，“这就是我们所说的贸易保护主义。”

That extends to the Khorgos free-trade zone.

这种情况也出现在霍尔果斯自由贸易区。

Kazakhstan, as a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, limits imports to 50kg or €1,500 worth of undeclared goods per person per month. China, worried that cheap Kazakh imports could hurt domestic producers, bans most agricultural products from entering through the tax-free zone.

作为俄罗斯领导的“欧亚经济联盟”(Eurasian Economic Union)中的一员，哈萨克斯坦只允许每人每月进口50公斤或价值1500欧元的未申报货物。而中国担心廉价的哈萨克进口商品会损害国内生产者的利益，禁止通过该免税区进口大部分农产品。

That limits all but small-scale trade from surviving in Khorgos, where buyers and sellers haggle over socks, bedding and packaged food in dimly lit malls.

除小规模贸易以外，这些限制使一切贸易在霍尔果斯都难以为继。在霍尔果斯光线昏暗的商场里，买卖双方就袜子、床上用品和包装食品讨价还价。

This falls far short of what many traders had in mind when they set up shop, says Xiang Wu, a textile trader: “No matter how hard you work, there is a glass ceiling on how much money you can make here.”

这远远低于很多商贩开店时的预期，一位名叫向武(音)的纺织品小贩说：“不管你多努力工作，在这儿能挣到的钱还是有限。”