不要夸大普京的能量

Ronald Reagan once joked that he had signed a bill to outlaw Russia. “The bombing begins in five minutes,” he said. Because the Soviet Union posed a mortal threat, his joke was in poor taste. Today’s Russia is a minnow by comparison. It offers no ideological challenge to democracy — and its economy is smaller than Italy’s. Yet liberal America has worked itself up into a moral panic. If it were not for Vladimir Putin, we are asked to believe, western democracy would be in reasonable shape. Without Russia, there would be no Donald Trump.

罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)曾经开玩笑说，他签署了一项从法律上禁止俄罗斯存在的法案。“轰炸将在5分钟后开始，”他称。由于当时的苏联构成致命威胁，这个玩笑缺乏品味。相比之下，如今的俄罗斯就像一条小鱼。它在意识形态上不再对民主政体构成挑战，而其经济规模甚至小于意大利。然而美国的自由派阵营神经兮兮地陷入了一场道德恐慌。我们被要求相信，要不是弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)在捣乱，西方民主如今将处于不错的状态。没有俄罗斯，就不会有唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)。

At best, such claims are an exaggeration. At worst, they are a red herring. The latest to join the fray is Joe Biden, the former vice-president. As a potential White House candidate, Mr Biden is a good barometer of Democratic thinking. In a co-authored article for Foreign Affairs, Mr Biden calls for the creation of a 9/11-style commission “to examine Russia’s assault on American democracy”. The body would identify tools to fight the Russian menace. “Americans need a thorough, detailed inquest into how Russia’s strike on their democratic institutions was carried out and how another one might be prevented,” he writes.

往最好的方向说，这些说法是夸大其词。说得难听些，它们是在转移人们的视线。最近一个发表这类言论的是美国前副总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)。作为潜在的白宫候选人，拜登很好地展现了民主党思路。拜登在与他人为《外交》(Foreign Affairs)季刊合写的文章中，呼吁成立一个与9/11调查委员会类似的委员会，“来审视俄罗斯对美国民主政体的攻击”。该机构将识别抗击俄罗斯威胁的工具。他写道，“美国人需要进行深入细致的调查，了解俄罗斯是如何对美国民主制度发动攻击的，以及如何防止另一场攻击。”

In sum, Mr Biden is calling for a new Cold War. But his reasons had little to do with foreign policy. The aim is to explain how Hillary Clinton could have lost to Mr Trump. Since the US electorate could not possibly have wanted him, it follows that the election was hijacked. The same kinds of argument are being made in the UK. Our minds were manipulated. Brexit was tipped by Russia, argue some Remainers. “Today, the Russian government is brazenly assaulting the foundations of western democracy around the world,” Mr Biden concludes.

总之，拜登呼吁发动新冷战。但是他的理由与外交政策没什么关系。他的目的是解释希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)怎么会输给了特朗普。由于美国选民不可能想让特朗普当总统，顺理成章的结论是选举被操纵了。英国也有人提出了类似的论点。我们的思想被操纵了。一些留欧派认为，英国退欧的公投结果受到了俄罗斯煽动的决定性影响。拜登的结论是，“如今，俄罗斯政府正在悍然攻击西方世界民主制度的根基。”

There are three problems with this line. The first is that it absolves Democrats of their own mistakes. Mr Putin did indeed throw all the bots and trolls he could muster against Mrs Clinton’s campaign. Moscow also helped hack and leak the email accounts of key figures in Mrs Clinton’s orbit. But to conclude that Russia threw the election is a stretch.

这个立场有三个问题。第一个问题是为民主党人自己犯下的错误开脱。普京的确动用了他能够召集的所有机器人软件和喷子来阻挠希拉里的竞选之路。莫斯科方面也帮助攻击了希拉里圈子内关键人物的电子邮件账户，并泄露了相关信息。但是由此断定俄罗斯左右了大选就有些牵强了。

There are any number of reasons Mr Trump scraped the 77,000 margin in the three key Midwestern states that clinched him the electoral college. Jill Stein, the Green party candidate, was one of them. She received more votes in Wisconsin and Michigan than Mr Trump’s winning tally. Mrs Clinton’s refusal to campaign in Wisconsin was another. The former FBI director James Comey’s last-minute bombshell about reopening the investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails was a third. And so on. None of these explain why Mr Trump’s support came within distance of victory in the first place.

特朗普在中西部三个关键州赢得7.7万张的票数优势(这为他敲定了选举人团)，原因有很多。绿党候选人吉尔•斯坦(Jill Stein)是其中之一。她在威斯康星州和密歇根州获得的票数高于特朗普的获胜票数。希拉里拒绝到威斯康星州展开竞选是另一个原因。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)在最后时刻重启对希拉里邮件调查的突发事件，是第三条原因。诸如此类。这些原因中没有一条能解释为何特朗普的人气本来就很高，使他有望胜出。

Mr Putin is an opportunist who wishes to tarnish the west. But America was already doing that by itself. He was only throwing paraffin on to the fire. The market for fake news predated Mr Putin. As the UK’s Sun newspaper would say: it was the west wot lost it. The second is that it looks nakedly partisan. Last year, Democrats accused the FBI of being a damaged outfit. Today they hold the agency up as the epitome of public virtue. In 2012, Democrats attacked Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, for saying Russia was America’s “number one geopolitical foe”. Today that is the Democratic position. Mr Trump is clearly a fan of Russia. His behaviour also fits with the theory that Mr Putin has kompromat on him. In due course, we are likely to find out which parts of the Russian dossier on Mr Trump are true.

普京是个希望给西方抹黑的机会主义者。但美国自己早已在这么做。普京不过是朝火上浇些煤油。假新闻市场的存在早于普京。就像英国小报《太阳报》(Sun)会宣称的那样：关键是西方那帮人拎不清。第二个问题是，这一切看起来像是赤裸裸的党派之争。去年，民主党谴责联邦调查局是一个受损的机构。如今，他们把该局吹捧为公德化身。2012年，民主党抨击共和党候选人米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)把俄罗斯称为美国的“头号地缘政治对手”。如今，这成为了民主党的立场。特朗普显然是俄罗斯的粉丝。他的行为也符合普京掌握了他的污点材料的理论。在适当的时候，我们很可能会发现，特朗普的“俄罗斯档案”里哪些部分是真实的。

Which leads on to the third problem. Democrats want to see Mr Trump impeached. Anyone who cares about the west’s future should want to see the back of Mr Trump. But it is unwise for Democrats to will that outcome by judicial means. Mr Trump was elected at the ballot box. He must also be ejected there. Anything else risks being seen as an elite coup — like Britain’s parliament overturning Brexit without another referendum. Most Americans are clearly bored with the details of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Perhaps they will take notice if Robert Mueller unearths something dramatic. Until then, the Democratic obsession with Russia looks rash.

这引起了第三个问题。民主党想看到特朗普遭到弹劾。任何关心西方未来的人，应该都想看到特朗普走人。但是由民主党人企图通过司法手段来达到这一目的是不明智的。特朗普是通过民主选举当选的。要赶走他，也必须通过民主选举。任何其他方式都可能被视为一种精英政变——就像英国议会不经过另一场公投而推翻英国退欧。大多数美国人明显对特朗普竞选阵营与俄罗斯之间据称勾结的细节感到了厌倦。如果特别检察官罗伯特•穆勒(Robert Mueller)挖出某些戏剧性的黑幕，他们也许会感兴趣。在那之前，民主党在俄罗斯问题上的纠结显得轻率。

It is also a boost to Mr Putin’s ego. The idea that a struggling petro-state thousands of miles away could manipulate the world’s greatest democracy is beyond flattering. It is empowering. As The New York Times reported, blaming Mr Trump’s victory on Moscow has tightened Mr Putin’s domestic grip. There is no need for staged pictures of a bare-chested Mr Putin on horseback. Just sit back and listen to the Democratic party.

这也提振了普京的自负。一个遥远的、经济不怎么样的石油国家竟然能够操纵世界上最伟大的民主国家——这种观点超出了恭维，简直是在助长普京的威望。正如《纽约时报》所报道的，把特朗普获胜归咎于莫斯科，已强化了普京对国内的掌控。没必要公布精心安排的、裸露着胸膛的普京在马背上的照片。只要躺在沙发上，听听美国的民主党在怎么说就行了。

edward.luce@ft.com 译者/何黎