FT社评：特朗普点燃巴以问题定时炸弹引信
美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)决定兑现竞选承诺，承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都，并最终把美国大使馆迁至耶路撒冷，这是一种外交方面的故意破坏行动。此举更加让人难以理解之处在于，可能谁也不会从中受益，至少对和平感兴趣的人不会，就连特朗普本人也不会。
He has united almost everyone against him, including his closest allies in the region, provoked outrage among Muslims, provided fuel for extremists and, not for the first time, diminished America in the eyes of the world. Nor has he served Israel’s interests well — though some Israelis might disagree.
他让几乎所有人团结起来反对他(包括他在中东地区的最亲密盟友)，激起了穆斯林的愤怒，为极端主义者提供了刺激，而且并非第一次在全世界眼里让美国的形象受损。这也并不很符合以色列的利益——尽管有些以色列人也许不这么认为。
Jerusalem has been at the centre of peacemaking efforts in the Middle East ever since partition in 1947 when sensitivities surrounding the city’s status (and its importance as a holy site for Jews, Muslims and Christians alike) led the UN to treat it initially as a separate entity from the Jewish state. Although Israel has always claimed the Holy city as its capital, no country has, until now, recognised it as such.
自1947年分治以来，耶路撒冷一直处于中东和平努力的中心。当年，围绕耶路撒冷地位(及其作为犹太人、穆斯林和基督徒的共同圣城的重要意义)的敏感性，导致联合国最开始把它视为与以色列分开的单独实体。尽管以色列始终声称这座圣城是自己的首都，但迄今没有一个国家承认这一点。
This is for good reason — the same reason that other US presidents declined to honour the 1995 act of Congress acknowledging hard facts on the ground, and seeking to move the US embassy. To recognise Israel’s claims to the city is not only to stymie Palestinian hopes to claim their own capital in occupied East Jerusalem and tear up an agreement in the 1993 Oslo peace accord, which held that the city’s final status would be settled by negotiation. It is also to unite Muslims against Israel at a time anti-Israeli sentiment has been relatively subdued.
这是有充分理由的，其他美国总统拒绝履行1995年的国会法案，也是出于同样的理由——该法案宣称承认当地铁的事实，并寻求把美国大使馆搬到耶路撒冷。认可以色列对耶路撒冷的主权要求不仅仅会破坏巴勒斯坦人在被占领的东耶路撒冷主张自己首都的希望，并且撕毁了1993年的奥斯陆和平协议(该协议规定耶路撒冷的最终地位将通过协商来确定)，还会在反以情绪已相对减弱之际让穆斯林联合起来反对以色列。
Mr Trump has been warned about this unequivocally this week. The Turks have threatened to sever relations with Israel. Saeb Erekat, the PLO negotiator, said that should the US go ahead with the move it would disqualify itself from “any role in any initiative towards achieving a just and lasting peace”. Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza strip, has threatened a new intifada. Nor could King Abdullah of Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel, stand by. He cautioned that recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s would play into the hands of terrorists and enable them to “spread their ideologies”.
本周，特朗普在这个问题上受到了明确的警告。土耳其人威胁中断与以色列的关系。巴解组织(PLO)谈判代表赛义布•埃雷卡特(Saeb Erekat)表示，如果美国推进这一行动，那么美国将失去“在任何旨在达成公正、持久和平的倡议中扮演角色”的资格。控制着加沙地带的伊斯兰组织哈马斯(Hamas)威胁发动新的起义。与以色列签署了和平条约的约旦国王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)也没有袖手旁观。阿卜杜拉警告称，承认耶路撒冷属于以色列将正中恐怖主义者下怀，使他们得以“传播自己的意识形态”。
Moreover, for all his words about not taking a position on the city’s final status, Mr Trump appears to have pre-empted his own plans to broker agreement between Israel and the Palestinians by resolving one of the most explosive issues in Israel’s favour. For someone who prides himself on being the consummate deal maker it is odd that he should surrender this card before negotiations have even begun.
此外，虽然特朗普说过不对耶路撒冷最终地位采取立场，但他以对以色列有利的立场解决最有爆炸性的问题之一，似乎预先废弃了他自己的撮合以色列和巴勒斯坦达成协议的计划。对于自诩为完美交易者的人来说，在谈判甚至尚未开启之际就放弃了这张牌，这是很奇怪的。
It is odd too because it complicates life for Saudi Arabia, Mr Trump’s chosen interlocutors in the region. The Saudis, who have been playing a role in the evolution of the latest US peace plans, are also strongly opposed. They have little choice. The ruling al-Saud family are not only royals. The Saudi king is the self-styled leader of Sunni Islam and al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem is considered the third holiest site in Islam, after the mosques at Mecca and Medina.
奇怪之处还在于，这会令特朗普在中东选定的对话者沙特的处境变得复杂。一直在美国最新和平计划的演化中发挥作用的沙特人也持强烈反对态度。他们几乎没有选择。执政的沙特王室不仅仅是王室。沙特国王是自封的伊斯兰逊尼派领袖，而耶路撒冷的阿克萨清真寺(al-Aqsa mosque)被视为仅次于麦加圣寺和麦地那先知寺的伊斯兰第三大圣寺。
This can only be a blow to the Saudis, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been acting as go between with the Palestinians and Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s son-in-law and envoy to the region.
这对沙特人、尤其是穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼王储(Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman)只能构成打击——他此前一直在充当巴勒斯坦人和特朗普女婿、中东特使贾里德•库什纳(Jared Kushner)之间的牵线人。
Most of all, by taking sides on an issue central to the Israel-Palestine conflict Mr Trump has exploded any residual notion that Washington can act as honest broker. The status of Jerusalem has always been a ticking time bomb. The fear now is that the US president has lit the fuse.
最重要的是，特朗普在巴以冲突的核心问题上站队，已爆掉了人们对于美国可能充当诚实调解人的任何残存想法。耶路撒冷地位问题一直是一枚滴答作响的定时炸弹。如今令人忧虑的是，这位美国总统已点燃了引信。
