FT社评：美联储将失去一位出色的主席

The Federal Reserve can take some blame for failing to see risks building up in the years preceding the global financial crisis. But perhaps more than any other major policymaking institution in the world, the Fed has acquitted itself well in the decade since.

在全球金融危机爆发前的几年里，美联储(Federal Reserve)未能看清风险在逐渐累积，这一点或许应该受到责备。但危机后十年来，美联储表现得或许比世界上其他任何主要的政策制定机构都好。

The competent and right-minded running of the Fed remains absolutely indispensable to stability in the US and beyond. It is unfortunate therefore that Janet Yellen, who has chaired the central bank since 2013, will be replaced when her term expires in February.

美国及其他地区的稳定仍离不开美联储称职、英明的运作。可惜，自2013年起出任美国央行行长的珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)将于明年2月任期届满后离任。

Ms Yellen’s tenure has largely pursued the philosophy and style of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. The Yellen Fed has been prepared to err on the side of monetary laxity and it has continued to use historically unusual tools to provide stimulus. Although it has tightened policy, probably somewhat prematurely, it has clearly signalled a gradual approach distinct from the traditional Fed style of an inexorable sequence of moves.

担任美联储主席以来，耶伦大体上延续了其前任本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的理念和做派。耶伦领导下的美联储偏向于宽松的货币政策立场，持续以非常规手段刺激经济。虽然美联储收紧了政策——也许有点过早了——但它已经表明要一改以往雷厉风行采取连串行动的作风，采取一种循序渐进的作法。

Ms Yellen has repeatedly emphasised that the economy has not returned to a pre-crisis normal — it has recently delivered robust growth without much inflationary pressure — and monetary policy must adapt to that.

耶伦一再强调，美国经济尚未恢复到危机前的常态——最近，在没有太多通胀压力的情况下美国经济实现了强劲的增长——而货币政策必须顺应这种形势。

Her style of governing, too, has been apposite in a world of great uncertainty. In contrast with Mr Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan, Ms Yellen has run the Fed in a much more collegiate fashion. She was prepared to countenance dissent without it descending into cacophony and division.

耶伦的管理风格也很切合当今充满极大不确定性的世界。与伯南克的前任艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)相比，耶伦以一种更学院派的方式管理美联储。她愿意接受不同意见，不会让异议沦为不和与分歧。

In terms of the Fed’s philosophy of monetary policy, and probably its management style, Ms Yellen’s successor, Jay Powell, is likely to show a welcome degree of continuity. But his is only one of a string of appointments that President Donald Trump is due to make to the Fed’s board, including choosing a new vice-chairman.

耶伦的继任者杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)也许会令人可喜地在某种程度上延续美联储货币政策理念——或许还有管理风格。但鲍威尔出任美联储主席只是美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将对美联储理事会做出的一系列任命之一，这些任命中包括选定一位新的美联储副主席。

If Mr Trump appoints to that position a monetary policy hawk such as John Taylor, the Stanford economist, it could set the stage for serious internal disagreements and possibly too rapid a withdrawal of stimulus.

如果特朗普任命一位货币政策鹰派人物担任美联储副主席，如斯坦福大学经济学家约翰•泰勒(John Taylor)，就有可能导致美联储出现严重的内部分歧及过快地撤销刺激举措。

With regard to one of the Fed’s other main roles, financial regulation, Mr Trump has already installed a vice-chairman for banking supervision, Randal Quarles, whose liberalising instincts stand in unwelcome contrast to Ms Yellen’s more cautious approach.

美联储其他的主要职责之一是金融监管，这方面特朗普已经任命了一位负责银行业监管的副主席，兰德尔•夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)，其自由化的倾向有别于耶伦那种更为谨慎的作法，不太受欢迎。

Ms Yellen has said that she will leave the board of governors altogether when her term as chair is completed, waiving the right to remain as a member until 2024. That is a pity, because a strong and articulate voice in favour of the current approach to monetary policy and financial regulation could be extremely valuable.

耶伦已表示其主席任期届满后会彻底离开美联储理事会，放弃将理事身份保留至2024年的权利。这不免令人遗憾，因为一个强有力的明确支持当前货币政策与金融监管方针的声音将是极其宝贵的。

In her absence, Mr Powell must brace himself for pushback from within the Fed’s open market committee. He will also face continued criticism in Congress.

耶伦离任后，鲍威尔必须准备应对来自美联储公开市场委员会内部的反弹，他还将面临国会的不断批评。

Mr Trump has also shown little compunction about trying to push any Washington institution he can to do his bidding, and may well believe that Mr Powell is in his debt.

特朗普对自己使出浑身解数迫使华盛顿一切机构听命于他没表现出丝毫悔意，并很可能认为鲍威尔要对他感恩戴德。

A domineering president with eccentric beliefs and a weak Fed can be a disastrous combination, as the Fed chairmanship of Arthur Burns during the inflationary Nixon administration years revealed.

一位思想偏执、刚愎自用的总统再配上一个软弱的美联储也许是场灾难，尼克松执政期间连年的通货膨胀就说明了这一点，那时的美联储主席是亚瑟•伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)。

Ms Yellen has not had to face a serious crisis during her term as chair; Mr Powell may not be so lucky.

耶伦担任美联储主席期间没有遭遇严重的危机;鲍威尔可能没那么幸运。

Ms Yellen will leave office with a fine record of public service. Her term as chair may look even better in retrospect if the governance of the Fed is weakened.

耶伦将带着良好的政绩离任。如果一个主席对美联储的管理被削弱，那么他日回头来看耶伦的任期将显得更为出彩。