FT社评：中国需要的债务平衡术

Why continue working when you are guaranteed a monthly income?” So asks Xu Yongan, a 55-year-old former steelworker from Anhui province and the recipient of an employee buyout. It may seem a bit puzzling that in China, the factory to the world, factory workers are paid to stay home. The solution to the puzzle — as to most puzzles about the Chinese economy — comes down to debt.

“如果你每个月都有收入，为什么还要工作?”许永安(音译)这样问。他现年55岁，来自安徽省，以前是一位钢铁工人，目前接受了一项提前退休补偿安排。这似乎有些令人费解：在中国这个世界工厂，居然要出钱让工人们别来上班。这一难题的解决方法——就像中国经济的大多数难题一样——归根结底在于债务。

The government worries that years of investment-led growth have left the country with a heavy debt burden and lots of excess industrial capacity. It was a government-led effort to shut inefficient factories that led to Mr Xu’s early retirement.

中国政府担心，多年来靠投资拉动的经济增长导致中国债务负担沉重、工业产能严重过剩。导致许永安提前退休的，正是中国政府领导的关停低效工厂的行动。

That Chinese debt has grown to dangerous levels is beyond dispute. Non-financial sector debt has gone from $6tn in 2007 to nearly $29tn today, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. The debt, equivalent to 260 per cent of gross domestic product, has brought with it dramatic declines in credit efficiency. The International Monetary Fund points out that in 2016 it took four units of credit to raise GDP by one unit. A decade ago the ratio was 1.3 to one.

中国的债务水平已上升到危险级别，这一点是无可争议的。根据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，中国非金融部门的债务已从2007年的6万亿美元上升到如今的近29万亿美元。这些债务相当于中国国内生产总值(GDP)的260%，带来了信贷效率的大幅降低。国际货币基金组织(IMF)指出，2016年中国需要4个单位的信贷才能实现1个单位的GDP增长。十年前，这个比例是1.3：1。

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is not far from that of the US, for example. But, as Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, emphasised last month, China’s companies bear an extraordinary high portion of the burden. Corporate debt levels at 160 per cent of GDP make it the most leveraged corporate sector in the world.

中国的债务与GDP之比跟美国差得并不多。但就像中国央行行长周小川上个月强调的那样，中国企业承担的债务比例不同寻常地高。中国的企业部门是全世界杠杆率最高的：公司债务与GDP之比为160%。

A year ago the situation looked even less tenable than it does today. Since then, the efforts to rein in excess capacity seem to have had some effect. Commodity prices have firmed, helping the big state-supported industrial companies. Private company growth (particularly in technology, as exemplified by groups such as Alibaba and Tencent) have helped reduce overall leverage levels. If China is to grow its way out of its debt problems, these trends must continue. Another potentially helpful factor is rural growth: over the past decade, China has promoted the transfer of agricultural land usage rights among farmers, resulting in bigger farms, increased investment and higher returns. Data on the scale of such transfers is scarce but an online broker, tuliu.com, has transferred a cumulative 6.8m hectares since it started up in 2009.

比起当下，一年前的形势更不稳定。自那时起，收缩过剩产能的举措似乎取得了一定效果。大宗商品价格企稳，对国家支持的大型工业企业有所帮助。私营企业的增长(特别是像阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)这样的科技企业)令整体杠杆水平有所降低。如果中国要靠增长摆脱债务问题，那么这些趋势就必须持续下去。另一个潜在的有利因素是农村经济的增长：在过去的十年中，中国一直推动农用土地使用权在农业人口间流转，导致农场规模扩大，投资增加，回报提升。有关这些流转规模的数据很少，但提供线上中介服务的土流网(tuliu.com)自2009年上线以来，累计交易面积已达680万公顷。

It reassures many China bulls that, due to its current account surplus and accompanying high savings rate, China has lent effectively all of the money to itself. But all the same, if the debtors cannot service their debts, a painful restructuring will be necessary. To avoid a crisis the government will have to tread carefully. The tentative withdrawal of credit from the economy is making the bond market jumpy. The central bank yesterday added more reserves into the financial system than it has in almost a year, to stem weakness in government bond prices. But liquidity injections are not a long-term solution to a debt problem. Neither is moving debt around by, for example, issuing asset-backed securities, which are increasingly popular in China.

这让许多看好中国的人感到安心，由于经常账户盈余并且储蓄率高，中国所有的钱事实上都借给了自己。但如果债务人无法偿还债务，艰难的重组依然是不可避免要面对的。为避免危机，中国政府必须谨慎行事。试探性从经济中收回贷款正让债券市场战战兢兢。为抑制政府债券价格的疲软，中国央行昨天向金融系统注入资金，其规模为近一年来最大的一次。但流动性注入并不是解决债务问题的长久之计。拆东墙补西墙(例如在中国越来越流行的发行资产支持证券)同样不能解决问题。

So the government must continue to move deliberately and hope the centre holds. It will need to stay disciplined about keeping a lid on loan growth, industrial capacity and — most importantly — the shadow banking system of dodgy fund companies, trusts, and wealth management products. Slow and steady progress these front, even if the economy does not grow as quickly as previously, will send a reassuring message to global investors, and minimise the chances that China’s debt addiction will require a more radical form of treatment.

所以中国政府必须小心行事，并寄希望于核心不倒。中国政府必须要严格恪守对贷款增长、工业产能及——最重要的——由可疑的基金公司、信托及理财产品构成的影子银行系统的限制。即使中国经济增长速度不及以往，在这些领域取得缓慢而稳步的进展也会向全球的投资者们传递一个令人宽慰的信息，并将需要通过更激进疗法才能让中国戒除债务瘾的可能性降到最低。