美日澳印重启“四方安全对话”
在过去几天举行的两场亚洲峰会上，除了各国领导人友好的相互招呼、昂首阔步的身影以及各自发出的推文之外，带来极为重要地缘政治变化的是四个国家的官员之间的一次低调会晤。
Officials from the US, Japan, Australia and India met at the weekend on the sidelines of the Asean summit in Manila to restart the “quad”, a diplomatic initiative set up a decade ago to counterbalance China’s growing power in the region.
上周末，在马尼拉的东盟(Asean)峰会间隙，来自美国、日本、澳大利亚和印度的官员进行了会晤，目的是重启“四方安全对话”(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue，简称quad)——一项10年前搭建的、旨在制衡中国在该地区日益扩大的影响力的外交倡议。
None of the four mentioned China in subsequent statements but each touched on issues likely to make Beijing nervous. They talked of the importance of the Indo-Pacific region being “free and open” and bound by a “rules-based order”. All except India called for freedom of navigation in the region, potentially challenging China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.
在随后发表的声明中，上述四国都没有提及中国，但他们都触及了可能令北京方面紧张的问题。他们谈到印度洋-太平洋地区保持“自由、开放”以及维持“基于规则的秩序”的重要性。除了印度，其他三国都对这一地区的航行自由提出了要求，此举可能对中国在南中国海的领土主张构成挑战。
“The very fact that this meeting happened is very important,” says Harsh Pant, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think-tank. “It tells you that major powers have looked back at the last decade and made an assessment that whatever China has done has not been beneficial to the balance of power.”
“这次会晤举行了，这一事实本身就非常重要。”新德里智库观察家研究基金会(Observer Research Foundation)研究员哈什•潘特(Harsh Pant)表示，“它传达的信息是，几个大国回顾了过去10年并做出如下判断——中国的所作所为对权力平衡没起好作用。”
The quad, short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, was conceived in 2007 but disbanded the following year after complaints from Beijing. Those objections were heard loudest in New Delhi, which is traditionally wary of formal alliances, and Canberra, where the government hoped to dissuade China from acting aggressively in the region.
四方安全对话肇始于2007年，但在北京方面的抗议下于次年解散。反对的声音最响亮的地方是新德里和堪培拉，新德里传统上就对正式结盟持警惕态度，而澳大利亚政府希望劝服中国不要在这一地区采取咄咄逼人的行动。
“Involving all four parties was seen as too provocative back then,” says Dhruva Jaishankar, a fellow at the Brookings India research group. “So to do this on the sidelines of a major summit [now] is a significant break from the past.”
“将四方聚到一起当时被视为过于挑衅，”布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)印度中心研究员德鲁瓦•贾伊尚卡尔(Dhruva Jaishankar)表示，“因此，(如今)在一场重大峰会间隙举行这一会晤，是一次重大改变。”
The break-up of the quad in 2008 was seen as a particular blow to Tokyo, which has long sought greater co-operation between the four democratic countries. In an effort to overcome resistance from India and Australia, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, has targeted the leaders of both countries with his personal style of diplomacy.
2008年四方安全对话的解体对东京的打击尤甚，日本长期致力于推动这四个民主国家之间加强合作。为了克服来自印度和澳大利亚的阻力，日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)亲自上阵对这两国领导人进行游说。
This has proved successful particularly with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two leaders swapping repeated bilateral visits.
事实证明此法对印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)尤为成功，两位领导人多次互访。
Despite this, India’s government has until recently been reluctant to co-operate with the three other nations. This year, for example, New Delhi refused to let Australia join the Malabar naval exercise, held jointly with Japan and the US.
尽管如此，印度政府直至最近还一直不太情愿配合另外三国。例如，今年新德里拒绝了让澳大利亚加入印度与日美两国联合举行的马拉巴尔(Malabar)海上军演。
Foreign policy specialists say the mood has changed in Canberra and New Delhi because of a perception that seeking to appease China has not curtailed Beijing’s expansionist policies. They point especially to the way China has turned a number of reefs into de facto military bases in the South China Sea since 2012.
外交政策专家称，堪培拉和新德里的心态已经发生变化，因为寻求安抚中国的做法似乎并未阻止北京方面奉行扩张主义政策。尤其是，自2012年以来，中国已将南中国海的多处岛礁变成了事实上的军事基地。
John Hemmings, director of the Asia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign policy think-tank, says: “We must ask ourselves: by avoiding collective security arrangements in 2008, did we persuade China to behave as a model citizen in the region?”
外交政策智库亨利杰克逊学会(Henry Jackson Society)亚洲研究中心主任约翰•黑明斯(John Hemmings)说：“我们必须扪心自问：我们在2008年取消集体安全安排的举动，说服中国在这一地区像模范公民那样行事了吗?”
As well as reining in Beijing, observers say the creation of a formal alliance is designed to tie in Washington at a time when many US allies are unsure how reliable a partner Donald Trump’s administration will prove. 除了牵制北京方面，观察人士表示，打造一个正式联盟的目的还在于绑住华盛顿——眼下美国的诸多盟友都不确定唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府作为盟友在遇到事情时会有多靠得住。
“This represents an attempt by Japan, Australia and India to keep the US engaged in the region at a time when there are concerns about America’s position following the election of Donald Trump,” says Euan Graham, director at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
“此举是日本、澳大利亚、印度约束美国的一次努力，其目的是保持美国对这一地区的介入，在唐纳德•特朗普当选总统后，有人担心美国的立场发生变化。”悉尼洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)负责人尤安•格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示。
Many in India were delighted by Mr Trump’s adoption of the phrase “Indo-Pacific” to describe the region, which they feel gives a formal acknowledgment of the role New Delhi would like to play.
印度国内许多人对特朗普用“印度洋-太平洋”(Indo-Pacific)一词形容这一地区感到兴奋，他们觉得这是正式认可新德里想要扮演的角色。
So far, Beijing has not protested at initial steps towards the creation of a new regional alliance.
到目前为止，北京方面还未就这些打造一个新地区同盟的初步举动提出抗议。
“There is no reason to believe it is targeting China,” Zhang Jun, a senior official at the Chinese foreign ministry, said at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Vietnam. “No matter what [Trump’s Indo-Pacific] strategy is, it should be open, inclusive and embody equality, mutual benefit and respect as opposed to serving the interests of a small group of countries.”
中国外交部高级官员张军在越南举行的亚太经济合作论坛(APEC)上表示，没有理由相信这是在针对中国，不管(特朗普的印度洋-太平洋)战略是什么，它应该开放、包容，体现平等、互利和尊重，而不是为一小撮国家的利益服务。
Yet some believe the greater threat to the quad is not from China, but the commitment shown by the unpredictable Mr Trump.
然而，有人认为，四方安全对话面临的更大威胁不在于中国，而在于不按常理出牌的特朗普在对这项倡议的承诺上的表现。
“Despite coining his regional policy approach the ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’ . . . Mr Trump largely avoided discussing the importance of promoting human rights and good governance in the region,” says Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and a former White House adviser. “Instead, he focused on respect for sovereignty and independence. This cannot have been the reassurance that Asian countries were seeking.”
“虽然特朗普将自己的地区政策定义为‘印度洋-太平洋战略’……但他基本上回避了对于在该地区推进人权和良好治理的重要性的讨论。”北京的清华-卡内基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center)的主任、前白宫顾问韩磊(Paul Haenle)表示，”相反，他把重点放在尊重主权和独立上。这显然不是亚洲国家希望得到的保证。”
Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo in Da Nang, Robin Harding in Tokyo and Tom Mitchell in Beijing 迪米(Demetri Sevastopulo)岘港、罗宾•哈丁(Robin Harding)东京、米强(Tom Mitchell)北京补充报道
