全球减排计划再添变数

New figures showing global carbon emissions in 2017 are likely to rise for the first time in four years make a gloomy backdrop to the UN climate talks in Bonn this week that were already looking difficult.

一些新数据表明2017年全球碳排放有可能在4年来首次上升，这给本周在波恩举行的本就看起来困难重重的联合国(UN)气候谈判平添了一层黯淡的气氛。

Climate-warming emissions were almost flat in the years between 2014 and 2016, despite a growing global economy. This had bolstered hopes that the world had finally found a way to “decouple” economic growth from carbon pollution, a goal that had seemed unimaginable only a few years earlier.

2014到2016年间，尽管全球经济保持增长，导致气候变暖的碳排放却基本持平。这曾经带来一种希望，即世界终于找到了将经济增长和碳污染“脱钩”的办法，而这个目标在几年前似乎还是不可想象的。

Many scientists say emissions should peak by about 2020 to have any hope of preventing dangerous levels of warming this century.

很多科学家表示，碳排放应在2020年左右达到峰值，才有希望在本世纪防止气候变暖达到危险的水平。

But the data published on Monday by an international consortium of climate researchers suggest levels could rise by 2 per cent this year, driven by a rebound in fossil fuel burning in China, the world’s emissions superpower.

但一个由气候研究人员组成的国际团体在周一发布的数据表明，今年全球碳排放量可能会上升2%，原因是碳排放超级大国中国的化石燃料消耗量出现反弹。

It is too early to know if this will prove to be a one-off spike in a trend of decoupling, or the start of a fresh pattern of growth. Either way, it casts an unsettling light on the Paris climate accord that virtually every country in the world adopted in December 2015.

这是脱钩大趋势下的一次性上升，还是碳排放的一种新增长模式的开端?要判断这一点还为时过早。无论如何，这给2015年12月经几乎所有国家通过的巴黎气候协定带来了令人不安的讯息。

That agreement is supposed to hold global temperature rises “well below” 2C from the pre-industrial era, and preferably no more than 1.5C. To achieve this, countries have each published an initial round of plans to cut or slow their emissions. The trouble is, we already know this first round of pledges is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris accord’s goals.

巴黎气候协定寻求使全球气温相比工业化时代之前的升幅“远低于”2℃，最好在1.5℃之内。为了实现这个目标，各国都提出了削减或放缓排放的首轮方案。问题是，我们已经知道首轮减排承诺远远不足以实现巴黎协定的目标。

The plans currently add up to only a third of the reductions needed to avoid 2C of global warming at least cost, according to a UN Environment Programme report last month. That leaves what the UN calls an “alarmingly high” emissions gap. This will be even harder to close if we are on the brink of a new period of carbon growth, considering the state of global climate politics.

上月联合国环境规划署(UN Environment Programme)的一份报告表明，目前首轮方案的减排量总和也只能达到以最低成本避免全球升温2℃所需的减排量的三分之一。这就形成了联合国所说的“大得惊人”的排放量差距。考虑到全球气候政治的局面，如果我们即将进入一轮碳排放增长的新时期，将使我们更难以缩小这一差距。

Negotiators in Bonn are supposed to be crafting a set of rules, due to be finalised next year, ensuring countries ramp up future action enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement.

波恩气候大会的谈判代表们需要编写一套规则，并在明年敲定下来，以确保各国在未来采取足够多的措施来达到巴黎协定的目标。

That effort has been complicated by the decision of US president Donald Trump to withdraw from the accord. The US is the second-largest emitter after China and although Washington cannot legally pull out of the pact until 2020, Mr Trump has made it clear he has little interest in the Paris pledge made by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to cut US emissions by at least 26 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.

美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)退出巴黎气候协定的决定让这一努力变得更加复杂。美国是继中国之后的第二大排放国，尽管美国要到2020年以后才能合法地退出巴黎协定，特朗普已经明确表示，他对前任巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)做出的承诺——到2025年将美国排放量相比2005年水平至少减少26%——毫无兴趣。

Numerous US states and business leaders say they are still committed to the Paris agreement, despite Mr Trump.

尽管特朗普如此表态，美国许多州和商界领袖表示依然会致力于实现巴黎协定。

But that still leaves a large question mark about China. Beijing has leapt to fill the political gap left by the US in global climate leadership. And there had been signs that China was on course to meet its Paris plan to halt emissions growth by 2030.

但关于中国还有一个大大的问号。美国退出在全球应对气候变化方面的领导角色，而中国已经迅速出面力求填补这个政治空白。而且此前也有迹象表明，中国正处在有望实现其巴黎协定减排计划(2030年停止增加排放)的轨道上。

That hope has been dented by the new figures. It is hard to see the Paris accord succeeding unless they prove to be a temporary blip.

新数据却打击了这一希望。除非这些数据被证明只是暂时性现象，否则我们将很难看到巴黎气候协定取得成功。