Lex专栏：中国煤炭需求的凛冬将至

Winter is the smoggiest season in China. The next few months will give commodity investors a chance to reassess whether the government is serious about curbing polluting industries. This year, coal-burning manufacturers and electrical utilities will be drafted in to help. This will hurt seaborne coal importers such as mining companies BHP Billiton or Anglo American.

冬季是中国雾霾最严重的季节。接下来的几个月，大宗商品投资者将有机会看到，中国政府是不是当真在遏制污染产业。那些消耗煤炭的制造业企业和电力公司今年也需出一分力。这将损及海运煤炭出口商，例如必和必拓(BHP Billiton)或英美资源集团(Anglo American)等矿业公司。

Domestic benchmark coal prices are a fifth above the range targeted by the National Development and Reform Commission. Prices doubled last November, when the government told miners to shut down for a quarter of the year. Similarly, production cuts in steel mills were strictly enforced — which boosted steel prices and margins for steelmakers. Aluminium followed suit.

中国国内基准煤价比国家发改委制定的目标范围高出了五分之一。去年11月煤价翻倍上涨，原因是政府要求煤矿在当年停产一个季度的时间。同样，钢厂减产也得到了严格执行，提高了钢材价格以及钢铁企业的利润率。铝随后也出现了一样的情况。

Given the impending capacity cuts at manufacturing plants, demand for electricity could be 4.5 per cent lower than the average during the four months from November to March, according to analysts at Liberum. China burns about 300m tons of coal in a winter heating season. The plants will require less of the black stuff to produce the diminished output.

Liberum的分析师认为，鉴于制造业工厂将减产，今年11月至明年3月电力需求可能比平均水平低4.5%。中国在冬季采暖季节大约要燃烧3亿吨煤炭。随着工厂削减产量，它们需要的煤炭量也将减少。

If the corresponding demand reduction for electricity is borne by thermal coal power stations exclusively, total usage in the season could be a sixth lower than normal. On an annualised basis that gap is as large as all of China’s seaborne thermal coal imports.

如果电力需求减少的部分完全由燃煤发电厂承担，那么冬季煤炭总用量可能会比正常情况低六分之一。若按年率计算，这一缺口相当于中国海运动力煤进口量。

Coal prices must ultimately take a hit. China’s efficiency drive in steel has already created victims. Lower-grade iron ore miner Fortescue, for example, has underperformed higher-quality peer BHP. The best steel mills in China have increased purchases of high-grade ore to maximise outputs. The lesson is that production cuts raise product prices first and hit demand for wasteful inputs later.

这最终会打击到煤价。中国提高钢铁生产效率的举措已经催生了“受害者”。例如，较低品味铁矿石生产商Fortescue的表现逊于矿石品位更高的同行必和必拓。中国各顶尖钢铁厂增加了高品位铁矿石的采购，以实现产量最大化。由此可知，减产首先会提高产品价格，之后会打击浪费性原材料的需求。

Investors need to brace for a new equilibria. Markets that China has oversupplied in the past may experience severe tightening. Scale producers in China, such as coal group Shenhua, should be relatively insulated. The outlook for foreign coal groups and traders in low-grade materials is chillier.

投资者需要准备好迎接一种新的平衡。中国过去供过于求的市场可能会严重趋紧。中国的规模生产商所受的影响会相对较小，比如主要生产煤炭的神华集团(Shenhua Group)。而外国煤炭集团和低品味矿石交易商的前景就不太乐观了。