FT社评：特朗普零和观念危及亚洲贸易

Realistically, as far as trade is concerned, the most that Asian governments can hope for from Donald Trump’s visit to the region is that he does not do any significant damage. So far, his interventions have been ignorant but not substantively harmful. But a president in possession of serious misconceptions always retains the potential to cause havoc.

现实地说，就贸易而言，亚洲各国对唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)访问该地区所能期望的最好结果，就是他不带来任何重大破坏。迄今，他的干预尽管无知，但没有造成实质性伤害。但是，一位抱有严重误解的美国总统，始终有可能造成严重破坏。

Well before his election, Mr Trump had several Asian countries in his sights. Their crime was running bilateral trade surpluses with the US. He unleashed his full rhetorical arsenal of threats against China and Japan for alleged curre ncy manipulation (a charge which was at best several years out of date) and recast trade relations between the countries.

早在他当选之前，特朗普就把几个亚洲国家列为惩罚目标。这些国家的罪行是对美国保持着双边贸易顺差。他对中国和日本抛出全套威胁言论，称这两个国家操纵汇率(往最好的方向说，这个指控也过时了好几年)，还改变了对国与国之间贸易关系的定性。

Any serious analysis of current account balances finds that formal trade deals have a minimal impact. And to some extent, Mr Trump’s own actions have worsened the overall US deficit by encouraging a rush of imports before potential restrictions are imposed.

对经常账户平衡的任何认真分析都会发现，正式贸易协定的影响很小。而且在某种程度上，特朗普自己的行动加剧了美国的整体逆差，因为这些行动鼓励企业抢在潜在限制措施出台之前完成进口。

If Mr Trump is wrong-headed on his theoretical analysis of trade deficits, however, he is breathtakingly ignorant of reality. On Monday, in Japan, he asked why Japanese automakers could not manufacture more of their cars in the US rather than shipping them over. In fact, more than three-quarters of cars from Japanese companies sold in the US are manufactured in North America. Japanese-built auto plants have helped rejuvenate the US motor industry, bringing employment to several poorer states.

如果说特朗普对贸易逆差的理论分析是执迷不悟的，那么他对现实的无知简直令人错愕。周一在日本时，他问日本汽车制造商为什么不能在美国生产更多汽车，而是要把造好的汽车运到美国。事实上，日本企业在美国销售的汽车中，四分之三以上是在北美制造的。日资建造的汽车厂帮助重振了美国汽车业，为几个较穷的州带来就业机会。

On a slightly more optimistic note, Mr Trump did, on this occasion at least, refrain from making any specific new threats of retaliation, and spoke of the need for co-operation between Japan and the US. But there can be little doubt that his zero-sum attitude to trade in the region could be seriously damaging to business confidence and trade there.

略微让人乐观的一点是，特朗普至少在这个场合没有发出任何新的具体报复威胁，他还谈到了日美合作的必要性。但毫无疑问，他对亚洲贸易采取的零和态度，可能严重损害该地区的商业信心和贸易。

Mr Trump’s most obvious withdrawal from economic co-operation in Asia was his abrupt abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation comprehensive deal that was supposed to export the US economic model to the region.

特朗普退出亚洲经济合作的最明显举动，是他突然废除《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP);由12个国家达成的这项全面协定，本应把美国经济模式输出至亚太地区。

The conventional wisdom is that the vacuum left by the US giving up that role of trade leadership in east Asia will be filled by others. The EU is in the last stages of agreeing a trade deal with Japan, and even more of a (alleged) threat is China, which is pushing a trade deal involving 16 countries, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

普遍的看法是，美国放弃东亚贸易领导角色所留下的真空，将被其他国家填补。欧盟正处于同日本达成贸易协定的最后阶段，甚至更大的(据称)威胁是中国，中国正在推动一项涉及16个国家的贸易协定，即《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)。

These fears are somewhat overstated. RCEP is a rather narrow deal that is concerned largely with goods tariffs. The EU deal with Japan is a solid achievement, but there is little evidence it has the clout to corral a large posse of Asian countries together for a regional trade agreement.

这些担忧有些夸大了。RCEP是一个相当狭窄的协定，主要与货物关税有关。欧盟与日本正在谈判的贸易协定是一项坚实的成就，但是没有什么证据显示，它会有足够的影响力促使一大批亚洲国家凝聚共识，达成一项区域贸易协定。

More worrying is that the perpetual uncertainty induced by US caprice over trade may retard the growth of cross-border supply chains in the region aimed at the US market. Moreover, while goods trade until now has largely proceeded unimpeded by trade restrictions, the architecture of international commerce is failing comprehensively to address 21st-century issues such as cross-border data flow.

更令人担忧的是，美国在贸易问题上任性所引发的永久不确定性，可能阻碍亚太地区针对美国市场的跨境供应链的成长。此外，尽管货物贸易迄今基本上顺利进行，没有受到贸易限制的阻碍，但国际经贸架构未能全面解决21世纪的问题，比如跨境数据流。

The American president’s attitude to trade in Asia is not, as of yet, a catastrophe. So far his actions have been restricted to blocking new agreements rather than tearing up existing ones. But as long as he holds misguided mercantilist ideas with such fervour, there remains the possibility that the US will cause havoc in a region in which it should be fighting to maintain its relevance.

特朗普对亚洲贸易的态度尚未酿成一场灾难。到目前为止，他的行动仅限于阻止新协议，而不是撕毁现有协议。但是，只要他继续如此痴迷于错误的重商主义观念，美国就有可能搞乱这个地区，而其本来应该力争维护自己在该地区的重要性。