美联储保持利率不变
美联储(Federal Reserve)向着下月就进一步加息谨慎迈步。珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)在可能是她担任美联储主席的最后几个月期间权衡强劲经济增长与通胀持续偏弱的证据。
With Donald Trump expected to announce his nominee for Fed chair on Thursday, the central bank kept the key rate at 1 to 1.25 per cent at the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest two-day meeting. The Fed continued to signal that “gradual” rate rises lie ahead, even if it did not offer any explicit indications as to when the next move will come.
在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)预计将在周四宣布他的美联储主席提名人选前夕，美国央行在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最近一次两天会议结束之际将关键利率保持在1%至1.25%的区间。美联储继续发出信号表明，未来会有“逐渐”加息，即便它没有明确说明下一次何时动手。
While high petrol prices associated with the recent hurricanes had boosted some prices, “inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft,” the central bank said. On the upside, it noted that the labour market had continued to improve and “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions.”
美国央行表示，虽然近期与飓风有关的汽油价格高企导致了一些价格上涨，但“食品和能源以外的其他物品的通胀依然疲软”。在积极的方面，它指出，劳动力市场持续好转，同时“尽管飓风造成破坏，但经济活动以稳健速度上升”。
Investors have been expecting a further quarter-point rate rise at the Fed’s final meeting of the year on December 12-13, but the direction of US monetary policy beyond that is about to be cast into a period of further uncertainty as the president considers installing a new Fed chair following the end of Ms Yellen’s first term in early February.
投资者一直预计，美联储将在12月12日至13日举行的今年最后一次会议上进一步加息四分之一点，但是美国货币政策在那之后的走向将陷入一段不确定时期，因为总统考虑在耶伦在2月初结束首个任期后任命一位新的美联储主席。
At a press briefing earlier on Tuesday, President Trump said Janet Yellen was “excellent”, but did not say whether she would be renewed in her position as Fed chair when the term expires in February.
在周二早些时候举行的记者会上，特朗普总统称珍妮特•耶伦“优秀”，但没有说在她的任期到2月份届满时，她是否将继续担任美联储主席。
Asked if Yellen was his choice to keep leading the Fed, Trump said: “I didn’t say that. I think she’s excellent.”
在被问及耶伦是不是他选中的美联储领导者时，特朗普说道：“我没有那么说。我认为她很优秀。”
Administration officials expect Mr Trump to nominate Jay Powell, one of the Fed’s current governors, to take over the helm of the US central bank, although it remains possible that the president will change his mind at the last minute. Mr Powell would represent the continuity candidate for the Fed’s top job, given he hewed closely to Ms Yellen’s monetary policy approach in recent years.
特朗普政府的官员们预期，总统将提名美联储现任理事之一杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)执掌美国央行，尽管特朗普仍有可能在最后一刻改变主意。考虑到鲍威尔近年密切附和耶伦的货币政策姿态，他被提名为美联储主席将最有希望保持政策连续性。
The White House has suggested a decision on the Fed chair could come on Thursday. The expected change comes as a near-decade of loose monetary policy helps power a vigorous economic recovery — but one that is also coupled with surprisingly low inflation.
白宫暗示，有关美联储主席人选的决定可能在周四宣布。美国央行高层人事变动之际，近10年的宽松货币政策帮助推动了强劲经济复苏，但也伴随着低得让人意外的通胀。
Ms Yellen has been presiding over a fierce debate within the Fed on how to reconcile the conflicting trends in the recovery. Unemployment has dropped to just 4.2 per cent despite the economic damage done by the recent hurricanes, and the US has now seen two straight quarters of roughly 3 per cent annualised growth. The global backdrop has become increasingly sunny.
在耶伦领导下，美联储内部围绕如何解释此轮复苏中相互矛盾的趋势展开激烈辩论。尽管近期几场飓风造成经济破坏，但失业率已降至4.2%，而美国已连续两个季度录得大约3%的年化增长率。全球大背景变得越来越光明。
Yet at the same time the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, excluding food and energy, was just 1.3 per cent in September, following months of disappointing readings that have fostered concerns among some policymakers that entrenched factors are depressing prices following a half decade of sub-target price growth. The Fed stuck to its guns in expecting that inflation should stabilise around its 2 per cent objective in the medium-term. But it also noted that both its favoured inflation measures are running below target.
然而，与此同时，美联储重视的通胀指标(剔除食品和能源)9月仅为1.3%，此前几个月的数据也一直令人失望，这使一些政策制定者担忧，价格上涨低于目标水平已有五年的情况说明，有一些根深蒂固的因素在抑制价格。美联储坚持其预测，即中期而言通胀将在2%的目标水平上下企稳。但它也指出，它重视的两个通胀指标都低于目标水平。
After the Tuesday statement, US government bond prices held on to their rally, with yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note staying below the 2.4 per cent mark at 2.3649 per cent.
周二声明后，美国国债保持价格涨幅，基准的10年国债收益率维持在低于2.4%的水平，为2.3649%。
Stocks remained a mixed bag. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added to their slight gains to trade up 0.2 per cent at 2,580.34 and 23,424.89 respectively. The Nasdaq Composite is at 6,712.31 after trimming its losses from 0.4 per cent to 0.2 per cent. The dollar, as measured by the DXY index, remained 0.1 per cent higher for the day.
股市有涨有跌。标普500指数(S&P 500)和道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)延续微幅涨势，分别上涨0.2%，至2580.34点和23424.89点。纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)的跌幅从0.4%缩小至0.2%，至6712.31点。按照DXY美元指数衡量，美元汇率保持0.1%的当日涨幅。
At the Fed’s September meeting many policymakers said they thought another rate rise would be needed later in the year, yet views were divided. Some officials insisted they wanted to see firmer evidence that inflation is heading back to the Fed’s 2 per cent target.
在美联储9月会议上，多名政策制定者曾表示，他们认为今年晚些时候还需要加息一次，但各方意见分歧。一些官员坚持认为，他们希望看到更为有力的证据表明，通胀正在趋近美联储的2%目标。
The Federal Reserve put one key element of its stimulus programme into reverse at the September meeting as it announced the gradual reduction of a balance sheet swelled to $4.5tn by quantitative easing — a well-telegraphed move that has not jolted markets.
美联储在9月会议上逆转其刺激计划的一个关键要素，宣布将逐渐缩小因量化宽松而膨胀至4.5万亿美元的资产负债表;这一事先充分通报的举动没有引发市场惊慌。
However Ms Yellen has suggested the quantitative easing programme could well be needed when the US hits its next downturn — even if it is milder than the last one. That is because the Fed is not expecting to raise rates very far — perhaps to less than 3 per cent — leaving it with little rate-cutting firepower when the next recession happens.
不过，耶伦已暗示，当美国经历下一场低迷时(即便其程度比上一次更轻微)，很有可能再次需要量化宽松。那是因为美联储并不预计会大幅提高利率(此轮加息也许会在不到3%的某个水平收手)，因而在陷入下一场经济衰退的时候，不会有很大降息空间。
Additional reporting by Pan Yuk
玉品琨(Pan Yuk)补充报道
