印度经济如何重新提速？

The shine has come off India’s growth. Most countries would crave a growth rate as high as 5.7 per cent, but this is a setback for a country that recently boasted of growth rates higher than China’s. The slowdown exposes underlying fragilities that no triumphalist talk could conceal. What lessons the government takes from this, and how it responds, will determine the contours of the economy and its growth prospects for a long time.

印度的经济增长失去了光辉。像5.7%这样高的增长率，多数国家都会求之不得，但对一个最近夸口经济增速超过中国的国家来说，这是一种倒退。经济增长放缓，暴露出任何必胜言论都无法掩盖的深层脆弱。印度政府能从中汲取何种教训以及它会如何回应，将决定该国的经济状况和长期增长前景。

The call for reforms has not gone unheeded by the government of Narendra Modi. A corporate bankruptcy law was put into effect last year. So was an inflation-targeting framework, giving the central bank a more focused mandate that makes low, stable inflation one of its principal objectives.

纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)政府没有忽视改革的呼声。去年企业破产法生效。同时生效的还有通胀目标制，这让印度央行有了更明确的使命，即把保持较低且稳定的通胀作为其主要目标之一。

Last November, the government unexpectedly withdrew 500 and 1,000-rupee notes. This year, it implemented the goods and services tax, a regime that gets rid of a patchwork of state excise levies.

去年11月，印度政府出人意料地废除了500和1000卢比面值的纸币。今年又实行了商品和服务税，结束了各邦自行征收消费税的混乱局面。

These reforms have fallen prey to a mix of weak design, poor implementation and inadequate follow-through. The GST ended up as a complicated hodgepodge that suffered from uneven implementation.

这些改革由于设计糟糕、执行不力和后续举措不到位而陷入困境。商品服务税最终成了复杂的大杂烩，各地实施力度不一。

Then consider the demonetisation, a well-intended strike against corruption. The chaos it unleashed in a cash-driven economy took too long to quell. Moreover, with no follow-through to change the incentives that foster corruption — especially the intrusive role of the state in most aspects of the economy — the dividends have been paltry.

至于废钞运动，这本是一个初衷良好的打击腐败的举措。然而，它在一个现金驱动的经济中引发的混乱用了很长时间才平息下去。此外，由于没有改变腐败诱因——尤其是政府在大多数经济领域中管得过多的状况——的后续举措，废钞运动带来的红利是微不足道的。

Nevertheless, Mr Modi still has enormous support. His demonetisation gambit got a remarkable political vindication in March when his party swept to victory in polls in Uttar Pradesh. With a majority in parliament and an economy growing rapidly, this outcome gave the prime minister more wind in his sails.

然而，莫迪仍颇受支持。今年3月，他的政党在北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)的地方选举中大获全胜，这显然是对其废钞政策的政治背书。随着其政党在议会占据多数席位以及经济快速增长，这种结果让莫迪更是一帆风顺。

What has he done with all this momentum? Little of consequence. The economic reform agenda seems to have given way to the social agenda promoted by extremist and nationalistic elements of his political party.

他利用这种势头做了什么?没什么成果。经济改革议程似乎让位于其政党内极端主义者和民族主义派系推动的社会议程。

Now, with growth flailing, there is a temptation to use looser fiscal policy to push up economic activity. The government is also subtly increasing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

现在，随着经济增长放缓，印度政府会忍不住使用更为宽松的财政政策来推动经济活动。印度政府还隐晦地对央行施压，要求后者降息。

These measures can help growth. But even the short-term boost will depend on whether they are undertaken in isolation or in tandem with broader reforms. And they are not without risks.

这些措施可能会有助于推动经济增长。但即便只是短期提振，也要看它们是孤立的措施还是伴随着更广泛的改革。而且实施这些举措并非没有风险。

Inflation had come under control sooner than expected but inflationary pressures are once again building up. Getting off the announced public deficit and debt reduction paths could shake investors’ confidence, pushing up interest rates and increasing the cost of financing the government’s debt.

通胀比预期更快地得到了控制，但通胀压力再次积聚。宣布公共赤字及债务削减途径后又偏离原定轨道，这可能动摇投资者的信心，推高利率，增加政府债务融资成本。

Such stimulus measures will do little for growth beyond a year or two unless investment picks up. This is the most fragile aspect of India’s economic surge in the past two years — private investment growth has been practically nonexistent. Thus, the real question for policymakers is not about how they can boost growth temporarily but how to create the environment to elicit private investment. Without that, durable long-term expansion will remain a mirage.

除非投资增加，否则此类刺激措施将无助于一两年以上的增长。这是过去两年印度经济迅猛增长势头中最为脆弱的部分——私人投资增长几乎不存在。因此，政策制定者面临的真正问题不是他们如何才能暂时推动增长，而是如何创造吸引私人投资的环境。没有这种环境，长期持续的增长仍将是海市蜃楼。

In addition to a stable macroeconomic environment, including low inflation and low budget deficits, substantive policy reforms are needed to give businesses confidence that India has economic prospects that would justify higher levels of investment.

除了创造稳定的宏观经济环境，包括保持低通胀和低预算赤字，印度还需要推行实质性的政策改革，以便让企业相信，印度拥有值得他们加大投资的经济前景。

Some good could come of the growth slowdown if it tamps down the government’s triumphalist chatter and forces it to fix the banking system, labour market and infrastructure, along with freeing the economy from state control. This is essential if India is to have a shot at achieving its potential. A panicky response emphasising short-term stimulus will hurt India’s economy.

如果说经济增长放缓能让印度政府的必胜主义者不再喋喋不休，并迫使政府改革银行业体系、劳动力市场和基础设施，同时让政府放松对经济的控制，那么这种放缓也是有好处的。这种改革对印度充分发挥其潜力至关重要。对经济增长放缓仓促地做出回应、把重点放在短期刺激上，将会损害印度的经济。

The writer is a professor at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution

本文作者是康奈尔大学(Cornell University)教授和布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员