FT社评：欧洲央行成功把握平衡

If it were done when ’tis done, ’twere well it were done slowly, with no firm commitment to an end date, and with the clear promise that it will swiftly be reversed if necessary.

如果要结束量化宽松，还是慢慢来吧，不要设定具体的量化宽松终止日期，同时明确承诺必要时迅速逆转进程。

The European Central Bank, as predicted by most investors, yesterday announced that it would start scaling back monetary stimulus by reducing from €60bn to €30bn its purchases of assets under the quantitative easing programme it began in 2015.

和大多数投资者预料的一样，欧洲央行(ECB)昨日宣布将缩减货币刺激措施，将其始于2015年的量化宽松计划下的资产购买规模从600亿欧元降至300亿欧元。

However clearly it has been signalled, the move to withdraw stimulus may yet turn out to be premature. In that context, the ECB was wise also to say that the buying programme is open-ended and to confirm that, even when it is finished, the bank will wait another good while before raising interest rates. In the months ahead, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, must continue to underline that the bank will make up its mind on future asset purchases based on incoming economic data, not an end date planned and announced in advance.

不论欧洲央行已发出多么明确的信号，撤销刺激措施可能还为时过早。在这种情况下，欧洲央行也很明智地表示，购买计划的期限是开放的，并确认即便购买计划结束了，欧洲央行也会再等一段时间才加息。在未来几个月，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)必须强调，欧洲央行将根据未来的经济数据决定将来的资产购买，而不是提前计划并宣布一个终止日期。

One thing should be made absolutely clear. Defying ill-informed warnings of high inflation, a collapsing currency and financial market volatility, the ECB has stuck to QE and it has served the eurozone economy well.

有一件事必须说清楚。欧洲央行无视了那些关于高通胀、欧元暴跌、以及金融市场波动的依据不足的警告，一直坚持量化宽松的政策，并且让欧元区经济受益匪浅。

Growth is set to pick up to rates not seen since before the global financial meltdown. Asset purchases and other unorthodox interventions have helped recoveries in peripheral countries such as Spain and Portugal that suffered during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The risk of corrosive deflation has sharply reduced. The euro, if anything, is a little too strong for comfort.

经济增长率将回升至自全球金融危机以来的最高水平。资产购买及其他非常规干预措施已帮助外围国家经济复苏，如西班牙和葡萄牙，这些国家的经济在欧元区主权债务危机期间曾遭到严重冲击。破坏性通货紧缩的风险已大大降低。欧元若说有什么不足的话，就是有些过于强势，令人担忧。

If QE were solely a one-off insurance policy against the extraordinary circumstances of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the risk of damaging deflation, the time would evidently now be right to withdraw it. In practice it is not as simple as that. With inflation still well below the ECB’s target despite years of growth, the world has changed from the days before the financial crisis. No one can be sure how far the eurozone economy presently is from full capacity. The idea that monetary policy can be normalised, without anyone having a good idea what constitutes the new normal, is a risky one.

倘若量化宽松仅仅是针对欧元区主权债务危机的非常情况及破坏性通货紧缩风险的一次性保险措施，那现在显然是撤销量化宽松的正确时机。而事实上却并没有那么简单。尽管历经多年经济增长，通货膨胀率仍远低于欧洲央行的目标，和金融危机前的日子相比，世界已经改变。没人能确定欧元区经济目前距离全产能运行状态还有多远。在任何人都不确定新常态是什么的前提下，认为货币政策可以恢复正常化，是有风险的。

As has happened all along, Mr Draghi has faced internal pressure to scale back QE from board members who have never been comfortable with the programme. Yesterday’s announcement was a good compromise. As a sop to the hawks, the ECB halved its asset-purchase programme. But by committing to buy bonds until at least September next year, and to refrain from raising interest rates “well past the horizon” of QE, the bank in effect promised that the first rate rise will not come until some way into 2019 at the earliest.

德拉吉一如既往地面临着来自董事会的内部压力，一些成员一直以来都对量化宽松计划不满，他们要求缩减量化宽松规模。昨天的声明是一个良好的折中之举。作为安抚鹰派的一种手段，欧洲央行将资产购买规模减半。但通过承诺继续购买债券到至少明年9月，并将在量化宽松结束后很长一段时间都不会加息，欧洲央行实际上承诺，第一轮加息最早要到2019年才会到来。

It may well be that the programmes of QE pioneered by the US Federal Reserve and followed by the Bank of England, the ECB and the Bank of Japan turn out in retrospect to be one-time inoculations against their economies sliding into depression. But it is also quite possible, in a world of low growth and low inflation, that they are stimulative injections to which policymakers have repeated recourse.

由美联储(Federal Reserve)率先推出，随后英国央行(BOE)、欧洲央行与日本央行(BOJ)纷纷效法的量化宽松计划，将来回想起来也许是这些国家防止经济滑向萧条的一次性防范举措。但也很有可能的是，在低增长与低通胀的全球背景下，它们是政策制定者们反复依赖的刺激性措施。

Mr Draghi, like the Fed’s Ben Bernanke before him, deserves great credit. He first made the intellectual case for unorthodox monetary policy intervention and then implemented it by manoeuvring his way through the tricky politics of the eurozone, facing down critics inside both the ECB and some of the EU finance ministries.

和前美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)一样，德拉吉值得高度赞扬。他先是为非正统货币政策干预找到了理智的依据，之后又在欧元区棘手的政治中全力斡旋，使得这些政策得以实施，并成功镇住了欧洲央行内部以及欧盟部分国家财长的批评之声。

The announcement yesterday showed both the fruits of Mr Draghi’s efforts and his skill in leaving the bank room to keep monetary policy appropriately loose for years to come.

昨天的声明既显示了德拉吉努力的成果，也展示出他的技巧——给欧洲央行留下了在未来几年保持货币政策适当宽松的余地。