欧洲央行拒绝设定QE结束日期

The European Central Bank confounded monetary hawks by extending its economic stimulus programme until at least September next year, pushing down the euro as investors digested Mario Draghi’s refusal to call the end to crisis-era measures

. 欧洲央行(ECB)拟将经济刺激计划延长到至少明年9月，让货币政策鹰派人士感到意外。此举压低了欧元汇率，投资者在咀嚼马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)拒绝宣布终止危机时期措施的涵义。

The ECB said stimulative bond purchases would be halved to €30bn a month but the commitment to keeping the programme open-ended sent European shares higher as markets anticipated access to cheap money for longer.

欧洲央行表示，旨在刺激经济的债券购买将减少一半规模，至每月300亿欧元，但是承诺保持该计划持续运行，这推高了欧洲股票，因为市场预期廉价资金的供应将持续更久。

The ECB decision had been eagerly awaited, with many in Germany pushing Mr Draghi to set a firm end date to the €2.1tn programme amid signs that eurozone growth has become stronger and more sustained. The ECB has been the most active investor in the region’s bond markets since the scheme, or quantitative easing, began in early 2015.

此前外界对欧洲央行此次决策翘首以盼。随着有迹象显示欧元区的增长已经变得更强劲更持久，德国有很多人敦促德拉吉设定终结2.1万亿欧元刺激计划的具体日期。自这个量化宽松计划在2015年初启动以来，欧洲央行一直是欧元区债券市场上最活跃的投资者。

Under the plan agreed yesterday, central bankers will go on spending €60bn a month buying mostly government and some corporate debt until the end of the year, before then halving purchases.

根据昨日达成一致意见的计划，央行官员在今年余下时间将继续每月支出600亿欧元买入债券(主要是政府债券，也有一些公司债券)，之后将购买规模减半。

But instead of announcing an end date to bond buying, something the ECB did not do before the eurozone crisis, the bank said it stood ready to extend QE beyond September — or even raise the level of purchases should conditions worsen again. It also stuck to its line on keeping interest rates at a record low until “well past” the end of QE.

但是，欧洲央行非但没有宣布债券购买计划的结束日期(该央行在欧元区危机之前从未买入债券)，反而表示准备将量化宽松计划延长至明年9月以后，甚至还会在条件再度恶化的情况下加大购买规模。欧洲央行还重申，将把利率保持在创纪录低位——“远远超出”量化宽松的持续时间。

The reaction in Germany, where years of negative interest rates and stimulus have caused rising anger among economists worried by inflation and savers facing tiny returns on their nest eggs, was surprisingly muted. Berlin has recently scaled back criticism of Mr Draghi amid hopes Germany’s Jens Weidmann might succeed him in 2019.

对此，德国的反应低调得出人意料;持续多年的负利率和刺激措施，已在德国导致担心通胀的经济学家们以及面对微薄回报率的储蓄者们越来越气愤。柏林方面最近降低了批评德拉吉的调子，其背景是德国的延斯•魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)有望在2019年接替他。

Mr Draghi said the changes were not a “tapering” but a “downsize”, adding QE was “not going to stop suddenly”.

德拉吉表示，相关改变不是“逐步缩减”，而是“减小规模”，他补充说，量化宽松“不会突然停止”。

He admitted that some on his governing council wanted a swifter exit to the programme. As many as four of the 25-member council wanted more precision on when QE would end, according to two people familiar with deliberations.

他承认，欧洲央行管理委员会中有一些人希望更快退出刺激计划。据两位熟悉审议情况的人士透露，在管理委员会的25名成员中，有4人希望在何时终止量化宽松的问题上要更为明确。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING-DiBa, said the “very gentle” exit plan “illustrates that the ECB wants to start the exit as cautiously as possible, ideally without seeing the euro appreciate or bond yields increase”.

荷兰国际直销银行(ING-DiBa)的经济学家卡斯滕•布雷斯基(Carsten Brzeski)表示，这一“非常温和的”退出计划表明，“欧洲央行希望尽可能谨慎地开始退出，理想情况是没有出现欧元升值或债券收益率上升”。

The euro fell 1 per cent to just under $1.17. Sovereign bonds were back in demand, with the yield on the 10-year Bund falling 7 basis points to 0.41 per cent. Stocks rose Europe-wide, with the Stoxx 600 rising 1.1 per cent.

欧元汇率下降1%，至略低于1欧元兑1.17美元。主权债券再度受到追捧，10年期德国国债收益率下降7个基点，至0.41%。欧洲各国股票上涨，泛欧斯托克600指数(Stoxx 600)攀升1.1%。

The ECB’s slow taper suggests it will keep interest rates at current record lows until 2019 — highlighting the gulf in policy between the eurozone and the US, where the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates. The ECB said rates would stay at present levels “for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases”.

欧洲央行缓慢缩减量化宽松的政策似乎表明，它将把创纪录低位的利率保持到2019年，突显欧元区和美国之间的政策鸿沟;在美国，美联储(Federal Reserve)已经开始提高利率。欧洲央行表示，利率将保持在目前水平“相当长时期，远远超出净资产购买计划的持续时间”。