中国投行不再顺风顺水

Booming debt markets and extravagant trading fees made China’s investment banks the envy of many global rivals for several years.

过去几年里，中国红火的债券市场和高昂的交易费用让中资投行成为许多全球同行的羡慕对象。

Not any more.

现在，他们不再羡慕了。

Revenues from China’s onshore bond market this year are half their 2016 level, partly because of policies to discourage a dangerous debt build-up.

今年以来中国在岸债券市场产生的收入仅为去年全年收入水平的一半，部分原因在于政府阻止危险的债务积累的政策。

As a consequence, China banks are losing ground on the global stage, according to an FT analysis covering more than 60 institutions from leaders Bank of China, Citic Securities and Haitong to smaller ones such as Dragon Securities and Hengtai Securities.

因此，根据英国《金融时报》的一项分析，中国投行在国际舞台上的分量在下降。这项分析涵盖60多家机构，既有中国银行(BoC)、中信证券(Citic Securities)和海通证券(Haitong)这样的市场领导者，也有华龙证券(China Dragon Securities)和恒泰证券(Hengtai Securities)等规模较小的券商。

After more than trebling from 2013 to 2016, Chinese banks’ share of the world’s investment banking spending fell sharply in the first nine months of 2017, fee data from Dealogic show.

Dealogic的数据显示，2013年至2016年期间，中国投行占全球投行业务费用的份额扩大了两倍多，在2017年前三季度则出现大幅下滑。

At the same time, the brokerage fees powering Chinese banks’ sales and trading business — the industry’s largest revenue source — have plummeted after deregulation led to brutal competition.

同时，由于政府放松监管引发了残酷竞争和费用下降，支撑中国投行销售与交易业务的经纪费用——该行业最大的收入来源——已直线下降。

Trading revenues for 33 mainland-listed investment banks were 27 per cent lower in the first half of 2017 than a year earlier, according to data from Wind Information compiled from exchange filings.

万得资讯(Wind Information)根据交易所文件汇编的数据显示，2017年上半年，33家在中国内地上市的投行的交易收入同比下降了27%。

It is a scenario that would prompt soul-searching and restructuring plans at western banks, where global prestige is highly valued and sharp falls in business areas prompt alarm among shareholders and management alike.

如果是西方投行遇到这种情况，就会赶紧进行反思并制定重组计划，因为它们非常重视自己的国际名声，而且业务方面的急剧下滑也会引起股东和管理层的不安。

But China bank executives tend to place more emphasis on how they are performing in local markets than they do on global league tables. By that measure, they are doing better.

但是，中国投行高管通常更重视自己在国内市场上的表现，不太关注自己在全球排行榜上的位置。就国内来说，它们的表现比较好。

In China’s onshore bond market, they take 95 per cent of the fees, up a touch from previous years, and in China onshore equity capital markets, China banks’ share rose slightly in the first nine months of 2017.

在中国在岸债券市场上，中国投行占据了费用收入的95%，略高于前几年;在岸股权资本市场上，2017年前三季度中国投行的市场份额略微升高。

Chinese investment banks “don’t care about their league tables globally”, says a banker based in Hong Kong who has held roles in two of China’s big investment banks. “They will not play outside the region in any significant way.”

中国投行“不关心它们在全球范围的排名情况”，一位曾在两家中国大型投行担任高级职务、如今常驻香港的银行家表示，“它们不会以很大精力在地区以外发展业务。”

Chinese bankers are also more sanguine about short-term revenue drops, and expect that the onshore bond market will rebound to its more lucrative past, when yields were lower and companies had more incentive to issue debt.

对于短期的收入下降，中国银行家也比较乐观，并预计在岸债市将发生反弹，回到过去利润更丰厚的状态。过去收益率较低，各公司有更大的发债动力。

“I believe bond yields in the onshore market have probably peaked,” writes Chen Long, analyst at Gavekal-Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research group. “The financial tightening that drove yields up in the first half is also probably ending as the [macroeconomic] data become weaker.”

“我认为，在岸债券市场的收益率很可能已见顶，” 北京研究集团龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的分析师陈龙写道，“随着(宏观经济)数据变得更弱，在上半年推高收益率的金融紧缩也很可能会终止。”

In Shanghai, where the big Chinese lenders’ power centres are, and Hong Kong, where their offshore businesses are based, bankers talk of expansion rather than cutbacks.

在中国大型银行的权力中心上海和他们的离岸业务基地香港，银行家们谈论的是扩张，而不是收缩。

“A focus area for Chinese securities companies is establishing an effective foreign fundraising platform,” says Zhang Jingwei, financial analyst at Northeast Securities in Shanghai.

“中国券商的一个关注点是建立一个高效的海外融资平台，”东北证券(Northeast Securities)驻上海金融分析师张经纬说。

He projects that mainland groups will then seek to expand their share of Chinese companies’ offshore fundraising. “They’ve also pushed into asset management — either helping foreign clients invest on the mainland or helping domestic clients abroad.”

他预计，内地券商将寻求扩大自己在中国企业离岸融资中的份额。“它们也闯进了资产管理领域——要么帮助海外客户投资于内地，要么帮助国内客户对外投资。”

A debt syndicate director at a Chinese bank based in Hong Kong says his firm is hiring locally and has set up a debt syndicate desk in Singapore. “Most banks have been expanding in the first half of the year in this area,” he says. His group has hired “a few associate directors that once worked at global banks”.

中国一家银行驻香港的债务银团业务总监表示，他所在公司正在当地招人，并已在新加坡设立了债务银团业务。“今年上半年，大多数银行都在这个领域拓展业务，”他说。他所在公司已聘用了“几名曾在全球性银行效力的副总监”。

Some China banks have begun pushing into international markets to follow their corporate and private banking clients, and are targeting Chinese and foreign business in some Asian markets.

一些中国投行已开始挺进国际市场，追随企业与私人银行客户的脚步，并瞄准了部分亚洲市场上的中外企业。

A spokesperson for Citic, the largest Chinese investment bank by revenues, says the 68 countries covered by China’s One Belt One Road strategy “clearly present great opportunity”.

中国最大的投行中信证券的一名发言人表示，中国“一带一路”战略所涵盖的68个国家“明显提供了很大机会”。

Citic pursues European and US opportunities through CLSA, the brokerage it bought from Crédit Agricole in 2013. CLSA pulled out of US equities in February because of challenging conditions, but is preparing to rebuild.

中信证券2013年从法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)手中收购了里昂证券(CLSA)，目前正通过这家券商在欧洲和美国发掘机会。今年2月，里昂证券因为处境艰难而关闭了美国股票业务，但目前正准备重整旗鼓。

“The US is a market [we are] considering beyond the current CLSA offering of Asian equity sales and trading,” the spokesperson says. The group “is looking at what licences are needed” to expand its business in the US. In Europe, CLSA is “looking at opportunities” in commercial real estate.

“美国是(我们)在当前里昂证券亚洲股票销售与交易业务之外考虑的一个市场，”上述发言人说。里昂证券正在考察在美国扩张业务“需要哪些牌照”。在欧洲，里昂证券正在商业地产领域“考察机会”。

Chinese banks have had early success abroad, including Citic/CLSA’s role as joint global co-ordinator for a dollar bond issued by Indonesia’s MedcoEnergi. But competitors and even some executives say there are limits to how far Chinese banks can go despite their scale — they include the world’s top four lenders by assets.

中国投行已在海外取得了初步成功，比如中信证券/里昂证券在印尼的MedcoEnergi发行一笔美元债券时担任了全球联席协调人。但它们的竞争对手、甚至一些业内高管都表示，中国机构在国际化方面存在局限，尽管它们规模庞大。

“Chinese brokerages need to carefully consider their entry points for foreign expansion,” says a Shanghai-based professional services executive who works with China investment banks. “Europe and America already have a large batch of top-grade brokerages and investment banks. There’s no shortage.”

“中国券商需要认真考虑它们进行海外扩张的切入点，”上海一名与多家中国投行有合作的专业服务高管说，“欧洲和美国已经有一大批顶级券商和投行。根本就不缺好的机构。”

One executive based in Hong Kong admits that his Chinese bank “can’t be global”. The executive says: “We cannot compete anywhere except for Asia. And even in Asia, we are quite limited.”

一位驻香港高管承认，他所在的中资银行“无法走向全球”。这位高管说：“除亚洲之外，我们在别的地方无力参与竞争。即便在亚洲，我们的业务也相当有限。”