抛弃“缅甸童话”

Myanmar today presents a more worrying picture than at almost any time since the darkest days of military dictatorship. The world's attention has rightly been focused on the Rohingya crisis and the plight of hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children fleeing in one of the biggest refugee exoduses since the second world war.

当今的缅甸比军事独裁最黑暗时期结束以来的几乎任何时候都更令人担忧。世界关注着罗兴亚危机以及由此导致的二战以来最大难民潮之一当中的几十万男女老幼的苦难，这种关注并没有错。

The worst may not be over. Humanitarian needs are far from met and discussions have barely begun on possible refugee return or the investigation of human rights abuses.

最坏的情况可能还未结束。人道主义需求远未得到满足，围绕未来难民可能回国或者对侵犯人权行为进行调查的讨论几乎还未开始。

There is a chance that western countries may respond with targeted sanctions. Even if formal sanctions are not imposed, international investor interest and tourism numbers will doubtless plummet. This is at a time when local business confidence is weak and banks unstable. Millions of the poorest people in Asia may soon face an unbearably bleak future.

西方国家有可能采取针对性的制裁措施作为回应。即便不施加正式制裁，国际投资者的兴趣和游客数量无疑都将急剧下滑。而当前正值缅甸国内商业信心羸弱，银行不稳定。亚洲最贫穷的数百万民众或许很快将面临一个不堪忍受的暗淡未来。

Any economic downturn will directly threaten Myanmar’s already fragile peace process. The country is home to approximately 20 “ethnic armed organisations”, the largest of which is fielding more than 20,000 troops, and hundreds of local militia.

任何经济低迷都将直接威胁缅甸本已脆弱的和平进程。缅甸国内存在大概20支“少数民族武装”，其中规模最大的一支拥有逾2万兵力，还有数以百计的地方民兵。

Fierce fighting has erupted at times during the past few years and there are nearly 500,000 internally displaced people along the Thai and Chinese borders. Economic growth alone will not lead to peace, but without the pull of an inclusive and fast-developing economy, the peace process will have no steam.

过去几年，激烈的战斗不时爆发，在缅甸与泰国和中国接壤的边界地带有近50万人流离失所。经济增长本身不会带来和平，但如果没有包容、快速发展的经济的拉动，和平进程就会失去动力。

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, responsible for the August attacks which set off the latest round of violence, may well strike again. There is an even worse scenario where international jihadi groups or others inspired by them target cities in central Myanmar, where 2m other, non-Rohingya Muslims, are for now living in peace with their Buddhist, Hindu and Christian neighbours. Imported terrorism could easily spark communal violence, with devastating consequences.

新一轮的暴力冲突是由若开罗兴亚救世军(ARSA)今年8月发动的袭击引发的，该组织很可能再次发动袭击。更糟糕的一个可能情形是，国际圣战组织或受其鼓动的其他人将缅甸中部多个城市作为目标，这些城市里生活着200万非罗兴亚穆斯林，目前他们与信仰佛教、印度教和基督教的邻居们和睦相处着。外来的恐怖主义很容易在族群之间引发暴力，酿成灾难性后果。

For many in the west, Myanmar has been seen for decades almost exclusively as a Manichean struggle between the democracy movement, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and a faceless junta. Few have wanted to understand the depth and complexity of Myanmar’s challenges or help find a pragmatic way forward. Policy failures have had little political cost.

对于许多西方人，缅甸问题几十年来几乎一直被看作一场正义与邪恶的斗争，一边是由昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)领导的民主运动，另一边是铁板一块的军政府。很少有人愿意去了解缅甸所面临挑战的深度和复杂性，或者帮助缅甸寻找一条切合实际的发展道路。政策上的失败几乎没有造成任何政治代价。

Inside the country, there is a myth of Myanmar as a rich country gone wrong, a belief in a golden age not long ago, ruined by military despots. The corollary to this is believing that a single shift, say to democratic government, is all that is needed to unlock potential and restore the country to its rightful place as one of the most prosperous in the region. An actual nuts and bolts programme for modernisation is nowhere to be found.

缅甸国内存在一个将缅甸视为一个误入歧途的富饶国家的神话，相信不那么久之前的缅甸处于一个黄金时代，只是被军事独裁者毁掉了。这种叙事的必然结果是，人们相信只需要一个转变——比如转向民主政府——就可以释放这个国家的潜力，让缅甸恢复其应有的地位：本地区最繁荣的国家之一。但没有人拿得出实现现代化的具体方案。

The tendency is to gloss over the effects of 20 years of sanctions, 30 years of self-isolation, 50 years of authoritarian rule, 70 years of internal war, and more than 100 years of colonialism.

人们倾向于轻描淡写20年制裁、30年自我隔离、50年威权统治、70年内战以及100多年殖民统治的影响。

The impact of generations of virtually no public spending on health and education is everywhere to be seen. Xenophobic tendencies are entrenched across the political scene. State institutions are brittle and in many parts of the country practically non-existent. Progress on any front, even with maximum political will, will not be easy.

几代人时期在医疗和教育上几乎没有公共支出造成的影响随处可见。仇外倾向在整个政治体系中根深蒂固。国家机构脆弱，而且在国内的许多地方基本上不存在。即便有最大的政治意志，也不容易取得任何方面的进步。

Some things have certainly improved in the past few years: political life is freer than at any time in half a century and at least a tentative transition has been made from military dictatorship to a quasi-elected government. No one wants to go back to isolation.

过去几年，有些方面确实有了改善：政治生活比过去半个世纪以来的任何时候都自由，而且至少实现了从军事独裁向准民选政府的初步过渡。没人想要回到孤立状态。

But the mix of challenges now facing the country is so great, it is hard to see a positive narrative continuing. It is not just the peace process, the economy, and the Rohingya crisis.

但这个国家如今面临的众多挑战如此艰巨，很难看到一种积极的发展势头。挑战不仅在于和平进程、国内经济和罗兴亚危机。

Migration, urbanisation, climate change, and new feelings and agendas unleashed by a revolution in telecoms are reshaping the social landscape. Relations with China are at an inflection point, with the possibility of huge new infrastructure projects remaking Myanmar’s geography.

移民、城市化、气候变化以及电信革命带来的新感觉和议程，正在重塑社会面貌。与中国的关系正处于拐点，可能上马的新的大型基建项目将重画缅甸的地理面貌。

At the same time, almost no one is considering the long view. Just take northern Rakhine, site of today’s violence and tomorrow’s possible refugee return: what will it be in 10 or 15 years? A stop on a new super-highway between China and India? Or will climate change sink it into the sea?

与此同时，几乎没有人对缅甸的未来进行长远考量。仅以北方的若开邦——当前暴力及未来难民可能回归之地——为例：10年或15年后这里会变成什么样?它会成为中国和印度之间新建高速公路上的中间站?还是会因气候变化被海水淹没?

Even an experienced government aided by super technocrats would struggle to manage what Myanmar is having to manage, let alone plan for the future.

即便是一个有超强技术官僚辅佐的经验丰富的政府，都很难解决缅甸当前不得不应对的问题，更不用说对未来进行规划。

The outside world is absolutely right to prioritise the crisis at hand. It is equally important, though, to jettison once and for all the Myanmar fairytale, and to appreciate that working in Myanmar means working with a near-failed state; to redouble efforts to boost the country’s own abilities, in particular through investments in health and education; and, perhaps most of all, to help inject fresh thinking about an exciting future for all.

国际社会优先处理眼下的危机一点儿没错。然而，同样重要的是要彻底抛弃“缅甸童话”，意识到在缅甸开展工作意味着与一个近乎失败的国家合作;要加倍努力以提升缅甸自身的能力，特别是通过对医疗和教育的投资;而且，或许也最重要的是，为所有人注入关于一个激动人心的未来的新思维。

Otherwise, the current crisis will be just the first of many to come.

否则，当下的危机将成为未来更多危机的开端。

The writer is author of the forthcoming book ‘The Secret History of Burma’

本文作者即将出版《缅甸秘史》(The Secret History of Burma)一书