中国第三季度GDP数据的四个看点

China will report third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, just as the Communist party convenes a meeting in which it will select a new slate of top leaders.

中国将在周四发布第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据，届时中国共产党将正在举行十九大，新一届最高领导人班子最终将在会上亮相。

Global sentiment towards China has improved dramatically since last year, when concerns about capital flight and excessive debt led many foreign investors to conclude that policymakers were losing their ability to control risks.

全球市场对中国的信心自去年来显著提升，那时资本外逃和过度负债引发的担忧，令许多外国投资者断定，中国的政策制定者正在失去控制风险的能力。

Today, few observers believe that China is on the verge of a crisis, but investors will still be watching Thursday’s data for signs about whether China is addressing structural problems in its economy or simply kicking the can down the road.

如今，观察家们不再认为中国正处于一场危机的边缘，但投资者们仍将关注周四的数据，看是否有迹象显示中国正在解决其经济的结构问题，或只是在把问题推到将来。

Here are four things to watch for in Thursday’s data dump.

周四发布的这批数据有四个看点：

1. Headline GDP

1、整体GDP

With inflation-adjusted growth of 6.9 per cent in the first half, China’s economy is on a path to meet — and probaby exceed — Beijing’s full-year target of “around 6.5 per cent”. At the current pace, this year would also mark an acceleration on last year’s growth of 6.7 per cent, the first such year-on-year pick-up since 2010.

中国上半年经通胀调整后的增长率为6.9%，中国经济将会达到——且很可能超过——北京方面提出的“6.5%左右”的全年目标。以目前的速度，中国今年的经济增长也将标志着在去年6.7%的基础上有所提速，这是中国经济自2010年以来首次实现同比加速。

Economists expect that growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll. But Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, told the International Monetary Fund that growth could hit 7 per cent in the second half of 2017. Stronger headline growth would create breathing space for policymakers to focus on reducing debt, while an unexpectedly sharp slowdown would renew pressure for stimulus.

路透社(Reuters)的一项调查显示，经济学家们预测第三季度中国的经济增长率将放缓至6.8%。但中国央行行长周小川告诉国际货币基金组织(IMF)，2017下半年中国的经济增长率可能达到7%。更强劲的整体增长率将为政策制定者创造喘息的空间，让他们聚焦于降低债务，而出乎意料的急剧下滑将再度带来采取刺激措施的压力。

2. Infrastructure

2、基础设施

China ramped up infrastructure spending last year to ensure strong growth in the run-up to this week’s party congress. With manufacturers still reluctant to expand given overcapacity in many sectors, the infrastructure share of overall fixed-asset investment hit a record high in the first eight months of this year.

中国去年加大了基础设施支出，以确保在本周的十九大之前保持强劲经济增长。考虑到许多行业产能过剩导致制造企业仍不愿扩张，今年前八个月，基础设施在总体固定资产投资中所占的份额创下历史新高。

But economists doubt that infrastructure can continue to drive growth, especially since the finance ministry is clamping down on exotic financing techniques that local governments use to avoid official caps on borrowing. Monthly fixed-asset investment figures released alongside GDP on Thursday will show the extent to which infrastructure is still underpinning overall growth.

但经济学家们怀疑基础设施能否继续推动经济增长，特别是中国财政部正在打击地方政府用别出心裁的融资手段来规避正式借款限制。周四随GDP一同公布的月度固定资产投资数据，将显示出基础设施在多大程度上仍在支持着整体经济的增长。

3. Property

3、房地产

Alongside infrastructure, real estate has been the other pillar supporting growth over the past 18 months. Rising housing prices and strong sales volumes have underpinned property investment, which in turn drives demand for commodities such as steel, copper and glass.

除基础设施外，房地产是过去18个月支撑经济增长的另一个支柱。上涨的房价与强劲的销量支持着房地产投资，进而拉动了对钢铁、铜及玻璃等大宗商品的需求。

But local governments have imposed a series of increasingly tight restrictions on housing loans and purchases over the past year, amid concerns about a bubble. Property investment and sales data on Thursday will offer more evidence about the impact of those measures. The government’s aim is to calm the market but not to spark a slowdown in construction activity.

然而，在人们担忧房地产市场存在泡沫的背景下，地方政府在过去一年对房贷和购房实行了一系列越来越严厉的限制。周四公布的房地产投资与销售数据，将为这些措施的影响提供更多证据。政府的目标是让市场平静下来，而不致引发建筑活动放缓。

4. Consumption

4、消费

China’s economy is gradually rebalancing away from investment-driven growth towards greater reliance on consumption, but progress has been slower than many economists believe is required to avoid future problems.

中国经济正在逐渐再平衡，从投资驱动增长转向在更大程度上依赖消费，但迄今的进展慢于许多经济学家认为避免未来问题所需达到的速度。

Consumer confidence and household-income growth are near record highs, according to a proprietary survey by FT Confidential Research, an independent research service from the FT. But there are concerns that rising mortgage payments due to higher house prices are taking an ever-larger bite out of household income, hampering consumption.

英国《金融时报》旗下的独立研究机构“FT投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的一项专有调查显示，消费者信心和家庭收入的增长接近历史高点。但有人担心，更高的房价导致抵押贷款支出不断增加，使其消耗掉越来越大比例的家庭收入，因而限制了消费。

Consumption contributed 63 per cent of real GDP growth in the first half, up from an average of 55 per cent each year in the five years to the end of 2016. If the consumption share of growth rises further in the third quarter, it will be a sign that rebalancing is gaining steam.

上半年消费贡献了63%的实际GDP增长，高于在截至2016年底的5年期间55%的年均占比。如果第三季度经济增长中的消费份额进一步提升，那将说明再平衡正在形成势头。