IMF上调全球增长预测

The world economy is enjoying its most widespread and fastest growth spurt since a temporary bounce back from the global recession in 2010, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, as it released a series of upward revisions to its economic biannual forecasts.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二表示，世界经济正在经历自2010年从全球经济衰退暂时反弹以来最广泛最快速的增长期。该机构对其半年一次的经济预测作出了一连串上调。

In a rare upbeat World Economic Outlook, published at the start of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, the fund added that the unexpectedly good news had further to run in 2018 and higher investment was also beginning to improve the longer-term economic prognosis.

在IMF和世界银行(World Bank)在华盛顿举行的年度会议开幕之际，IMF发表一份不多见的乐观的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)，并补充称，出人意料的好消息在2018年仍有进一步延续空间，同时更高的投资也开始改善较长期的经济预测。

The last time the global economy grew so fast was in 2010 as the world economy staged a temporary recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis, so this year’s performance was significantly stronger, according to Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist of the IMF.

IMF首席经济学家莫里斯•奥布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，上一次全球经济增长这么快是在2010年，当时世界经济是从2008-09年的金融危机暂时复苏，因此今年的经济表现要强劲得多。

“This is not bounce back from a sharp deceleration, this is an acceleration from the fairly tepid growth rates of recent years, so that’s really good news,” he told the FT in an interview ahead of the report’s publication.

“这并不是从一轮急剧减速反弹，而是从近年相当温和的增长速度加快，所以这真的是好消息，”他在报告出炉之前接受采访时告诉英国《金融时报》。

The IMF estimates that the world economy will expand 3.6 per cent in 2017, up from 3.2 per cent recorded last year, and it is likely to grow 3.7 per cent in 2018, the IMF predicted. These growth rates are better than the norm for this decade and finally back to the long-term average of the past 30 years.

IMF估计，2017年世界经济将扩张3.6%，高于去年实现的3.2%。IMF还预计2018年世界经济有望增长3.7%。这些增长率优于本10年的常态，并且标志着终于回归过去30年的长期均值。

The upgraded growth forecasts came alongside predictions of low inflation across the world, helping to boost household incomes, a continuation of loose monetary policies and an end to fiscal austerity in most countries, the IMF said.

在上调增长预测的同时，IMF预计世界各地的通胀将保持在低水平，帮助提振家庭收入、延续宽松货币政策，并且结束多数国家的财政紧缩。

China’s economy is also performing better than expected on the back of easy credit and copious public investment. The forecasts for the US were cut marginally, reflecting a weak first quarter of this year and the fund’s view that a large fiscal stimulus is now less likely than it thought in April.

中国经济在宽松信贷和大量公共投资的支撑下表现也优于预期。美国的预测略有下调，反映今年第一季度的疲弱，而且IMF认为，该国出台大规模财政刺激措施的可能性小于它在4月份的设想。

The most significant upgrades to the fund’s forecasts were recorded for the eurozone, which is accelerating strongly as confidence has improved and credit supply has returned to normal.

在IMF的增长预测中，欧元区的预测获得最显著的上调。随着信心改善，信贷供应恢复正常，该地区的经济增长正在强劲加速。

Despite the strength of its largest trading partner, the UK economy is described as an “exception” to the improved 2017 outlook, with its prospects currently saddled by Brexit uncertainties limiting spending and hitting incomes.

尽管其最大的贸易伙伴表现强劲，但英国经济被描述为2017年全球经济前景好转的一个“例外”，其前景目前受到退欧不确定性的拖累，支出受到限制，收入受到影响。

Although the recovery was now broad, not all countries were enjoying the benefit, with some smaller emerging economies, particularly fuel exporters and nations suffering from drought or political instability.

虽然复苏的波及面已经相当广泛，但并不是所有国家都受益，一些较小的新兴经济体，特别是燃料出口国和遭受干旱或政治不稳定的国家，前景不佳。

Mr Obstfeld said: “In 2017 nearly a quarter of emerging market and developing countries are expected to have negative per-capita growth rates so that’s a sobering outlook.”

奥布斯特费尔德表示：“2017年，近四分之一的新兴市场和发展中国家的人均增长率预计会录得负值，这是一个令人警醒的前景。”

Global trade imbalances have also continued to reduce in severity with China’s trade surplus falling as the world’s largest economy sucks in more imports and some European surpluses decline as domestic spending also increases.

全球贸易不平衡的严重性也继续下降，中国的贸易顺差下降，因为世界第二大经济体进口增长，同时一些欧洲国家的顺差下降，因为它们的国内支出也在增加。

The IMF urged countries to use this sudden outbreak of calm in the global economy as “a window of opportunity” to implement necessary reforms, get public finances gradually in a better shape and in some places such as the US begin to normalise monetary policy.

IMF敦促各国将全球经济突然迎来的此轮风平浪静当作“一个机会之窗”，推行必要改革，逐渐改善公共财政状况，在美国等一些地方还应该将货币政策正常化。

If achieved, Mr Obstfeld said, such policies could raise the potential growth rate of the world economy and ensure the upswing lasted longer and was able to provide inclusive growth that raised the living standards of most people. At present, he warned that “predicted longer-run potential growth rates are lower than they were in the past”.

奥布斯特费尔德表示，如果能够落实，这样的政策有望提高世界经济的潜在增长率，同时确保上升期持续更久，并带来包容性增长，提高多数人的生活水平。他警告称，目前而言，“较长期潜在增长率预测低于过去的预测。”

The fund did caution that the good times were dependent on assuming there were no serious shocks to the global economy from geopolitical tensions, from an increase in protectionist forces or from negotiations such as those over Brexit or the North American Free Trade Area rupturing existing trade ties and supply chains.

IMF告诫称，当今的美好时期依赖于几个假设，包括地缘政治紧张和保护主义势力抬头不对全球经济造成严重冲击，围绕英国退欧或《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)等的破坏现有贸易纽带和供应链的谈判也不对全球经济造成严重冲击。

Trade growth has continued to disappoint, barely rising faster than economic growth compared with its pre-crisis rates which tended to be double the rate of world economic growth.

贸易增长继续令人失望，比经济增长速度快不了多少，而其在危机前的增速往往比世界经济增速快一倍。

In an indirect, but pointed, message to the Trump administration, the IMF said: “Although the chances of advanced economy policies turning inward have diminished in the near term, pressures for increased protectionism have not disappeared and ought to be resisted.”

IMF向特朗普政府发出一个间接但意有所指的信号，称：“尽管发达经济体政策转为内向的几率近期有所降低，但是加大保护主义的压力并未消失，这应该受到抵制。”

The fund also warned China that its delays in rebalancing the economy towards services and consumption by borrowing to fund investment risked an abrupt adjustment which would reverberate across the world. “Unless the Chinese authorities counter the associated risks by accelerating their recent encouraging efforts to curb the expansion of credit, these factors imply a heightened probability of a sharp slowdown in China’s growth,” the fund said.

该机构还向中国发出警告，称中国通过借款投资来推迟转向服务业和消费的经济再平衡，带来了突然出现调整、进而在全球范围产生震荡的风险。“除非中国当局加快近期令人鼓舞的遏制信贷扩张的努力来反制相关风险，否则这些因素意味着中国经济增长大幅放缓的几率加大。”