中国助力瑞士手表再次闪耀光芒

Switzerland’s watchmakers have turned markedly more optimistic this year despite the rise of the “smartwatch”, with sales of luxury timepieces to China leading a surge in exports.

尽管“智能”手表兴起，但瑞士手表制造商今年明显变得更为乐观，面向中国的豪华手表销售引领了该行业的出口飙升。

Sentiment has swung sharply positive since last year, when the watch industry was in a downturn, according to a survey by the Deloitte consultancy.

根据咨询机构德勤(Deloitte)的一项调查，自去年以来，市场情绪已明显转好。去年手表行业曾遭遇低迷。

Optimism levels about the Swiss economy and the sector’s main export markets were the highest since the consultancy started its annual survey in 2012, Deloitte said.

德勤表示，自该咨询公司2012年开始年度调查以来，对于瑞士经济和手表行业主要出口市场的乐观情绪达到最高水平。

Overall 52 per cent of Swiss watch executives were positive about the outlook for the industry in the next 12 months — up from 2 per cent last year and the highest since 2013.

总的来说，有52%的瑞士手表制造商高管对该行业未来12个月的前景持乐观态度，远高于去年的2%，为自2013年以来最高。

“Last year’s pessimism has clearly been replaced with optimism,” the Deloitte report notes.

德勤的报告指出：“去年的悲观情绪显然已被乐观情绪取代。”

Swiss makers of luxury mechanical timepieces have been hit in the past two years by a series of setbacks. Hong Kong, their largest market, had excess inventory. Sales weakened in Europe where terrorist attacks deterred tourists. The strong franc increased prices for overseas buyers, while China clamped down on corruption and “gifting”.

过去两年，一系列挫折令瑞士豪华机械表制造商受到打击。它们的最大市场香港出现库存过剩。欧洲销售额下滑，因为该地区的恐怖袭击吓退了游客。瑞士法郎走强提高了海外买家的购买价格，同时中国又打击腐败和“送礼”。

Those factors have gone into reverse in 2017. Swiss watch exports in the eight months to August were 1.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to the Swiss Watch Federation, and exports to China were up 19 per cent. The share price of Swatch Group has risen 41.5 per cent and Richemont 47 per cent during the past year

2017年，这些因素出现逆转。根据瑞士钟表协会(Swiss Watch Federation)的数据，截至8月份的8个月里，瑞士手表出口同比增长1.2%，对华出口增加19%。过去一年，斯沃琪集团(Swatch Group)和历峰集团(Richemont)的股价分别上涨41.5%和47%。

The Deloitte survey, based on responses from more than 60 watch company executives, found 71 per cent expected Chinese demand to grow further in the next 12 months.

德勤调查了逾60位手表制造商高管。调查发现，有71%的高管预测未来12个月中国需求将进一步扩大。

A major factor in boosting consumption of high-end watches, the report said, had been the drop in corruption prosecutions in China. “In 2016, China’s courts prosecuted 20 per cent fewer officials for corruption than in 2015. For the first time in five years, the number of officials handed over to China’s courts decreased, marking a turning point in China’s anti-corruption and anti-bribery campaign,” the report noted.

报告称，提振高端手表消费的一个重要因素是中国的腐败诉讼减少。报告指出：“2016年，中国法庭起诉的腐败官员数量比2015年减少20%。移送法庭的官员数量减少，这是5年来的首次，这标志着中国反腐和反贿赂运动的一个转折点。”

The US remains a weak spot, with export sales 5 per cent lower in the year to August. But almost 70 per cent of Deloitte survey’s respondents expected an improvement in the next 12 months.

美国市场仍然疲软，截至8月的一年，对美出口销售额下滑5%。但德勤这项调查近70%的受访者预测未来12个月会有改善。

One explanation for weak US sales is the rise of smartwatches, led by Apple. In the first quarter of 2017, sales of smartwatches overtook Swiss watches in numbers of units, while the sharpest falls in Swiss exports last year were in the lower-price categories most exposed to competition, according to Deloitte.

美国销售疲弱的一个原因是以苹果(Apple)为首的智能手表的兴起。根据德勤的数据，今年第一季度，智能手表的销量超过瑞士手表，去年瑞士出口的最大降幅出现在竞争最为激烈的低价手表。

Nevertheless, the proportion of executives surveyed who viewed smartwatches as a “significant risk” to their business remained stable at 23 per cent, about the same as in the two previous annual surveys. That compared with 57 per cent who cited foreign demand as a big risk, and 48 per cent who worried about the strength of the Swiss franc.

然而，认为智能手表对于他们的业务是一项“显著风险”的受访高管比例仍然稳定在23%，大致与之前两年的年度调查相同。有57%的高管把外国需求视为一项重大风险，48%的高管担心瑞士法郎走强。

Swiss watchmakers are turning increasingly to online sales channels, and expect to put far less emphasis on traditional shops. Some Swiss watchmakers such as Tag Heuer and Montblanc have added smart functions to conventional watches.

瑞士手表制造商正越来越多地转向在线销售渠道，同时预测对传统店铺的注重将大大减轻。泰格豪雅(Tag Heuer)和万宝龙(Montblanc)等一些瑞士手表制造商给传统手表添加了智能功能。

But the survey suggests Swiss watchmakers believe their long-term survival depends on emphasising their history. Some 42 per cent believed “classical” watch styles, rather than, for instance, “sporty” styles, would be the most successful category over the next 12 months — up from 34 per cent last year.

但这项调查显示，瑞士手表制造商认为它们的长期生存取决于强调历史。约42%的受访高管认为，未来12个月，“经典”手表款式(而非“运动”款等)将成为最成功的款型。去年这个比例为34%。