沙特“国家转型计划”面临的油价困局

Just a year after its release, Saudi Arabia is reportedly slowing down the planned pace of the National Transformation Program, a bundle of targets and initiatives designed to deliver the “Vision 2030” plan to diversify the country’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenue.

出台仅一年后，沙特阿拉伯据报道正放慢其“国家转型计划”(National Transformation Program)的节奏，该计划包含一整套目标和举措，旨在实现《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)，推动经济多样化，并降低对石油收入的依赖。

The NTP was exceedingly ambitious from the start, with a head-spinning 543 initiatives and 346 targets. It has a laudable focus on concrete targets, measurable outcomes, transparency and accountability, along with a strong focus on boosting the education and skill levels of Saudi Arabian citizens. At the same time, many of the goals were unrealistic — tripling non-oil revenue by 2020, for example — and the pace of reform has been slower than intended.

“国家转型计划”从一开始就过于雄心勃勃，包含让人头晕的543个举措和346个目标。它关注具体目标、可衡量的结果、透明度和问责机制，还特别注重提高沙特阿拉伯公民的教育和技能水平，这些都值得称赞。与此同时，很多目标不切实际(例如到2020年将非石油收入增加至原有水平的三倍)，迄今的改革速度慢于预期。

The reset is not surprising, therefore. Announcing an attention-grabbing set of goals can be an effective way to galvanise a complex government bureaucracy, as well demonstrate seriousness to both citizens at home and international investors who have seen economic reform visions in the Gulf states come and go.

因此调整并不意外。宣布一揽子夺人眼球的目标可能是动员复杂的政府官僚体制的有效方式，同时还向国民和国际投资者证明其认真，后者曾不止一次目睹海湾国家的经济改革愿景不了了之。

Moving now to a still ambitious but more achievable set of targets reflects a recognition of how challenging the NTP is to implement. It also signals the kingdom’s intention to stay the course. Achieving a sizeable portion of the new targets would still reflect dramatic progress.

现在沙特正转向仍然雄心勃勃、但更有望实现的目标，这反映出该国承认，“国家转型计划”实施起来非常具有挑战性。此举还表明沙特的初衷并未改变。实现可观比例的新目标，仍将反映戏剧性的进步。

The challenge for Saudi Arabia, however, is that low oil prices restrict its room for fiscal manoeuvre. The International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia’s break-even oil price to be $84 per barrel (the price of Brent Crude is currently $53 per barrel). The kingdom is running large fiscal deficits and has seen its foreign reserves dwindle by almost a third since the end of 2014, to below $500bn. It can continue to borrow and draw on its reserves, but the prospect of “lower for longer” oil prices reinforces the imperative to shrink the fiscal hole by cutting state spending or raising other revenue.

然而，沙特阿拉伯面临的挑战是低油价限制了财政回旋空间。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，沙特阿拉伯达到盈亏平衡的油价水平是每桶84美元(目前布伦特原油(Brent Crude)的价格为每桶53美元)。沙特运行着巨额财政赤字，而且自2014年底以来外汇储备已缩减近三分之一，至不到5000亿美元。该国可以继续借款并动用储备，但油价“在更长时间内偏低”的前景，将增强该国通过削减政府支出或开辟其他财政收入来源来缩小财政赤字的必要性。

The dilemma Saudi Arabia faces is that the harsher the austerity measures, the greater the contractionary effect on the economy of sharp cuts in government spending. The IMF recently downgraded the outlook for growth in gross domestic product to 0.1 per cent for 2017 and 1.1 per cent for 2018.

沙特阿拉伯面临的难题是，紧缩措施越严厉，政府支出大幅削减对经济的收缩效应就越大。IMF最近将其对该国2017年和2018年国内生产总值(GDP)增速的预测分别下调至0.1%和1.1%。

Moreover, cutting expenditure by shrinking the state payroll, imposing taxes or curtailing subsidies risks public backlash at a time of significant transition in the royal family, with the recent elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince. Austerity measures have already been curtailed. In April, King Salman reversed cuts to public sector pay and benefits, and in June reinstated pay that had been cut previously. The government has also delayed planned energy reforms.

另外，在沙特皇室家族经历重大过渡之际(王子穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)不久前被立为王储)，通过裁减政府工作人员、征税或限制补贴来减少支出，有引起公众反弹之虞。紧缩举措已被逆转。今年4月，萨勒曼国王撤销了削减公共部门薪资和福利的措施，并在6月恢复了此前被削减的薪资。政府还推迟了计划中的能源改革。

The US shale revolution is a further challenge for the reform programme, as the ability of the Americans to ramp up output rapidly at lower prices than many expected seems to be putting a lid on oil’s upside. From an oil market standpoint, the news that the Saudis intend to pursue a slower pace of reform increases the pressure to boost revenue by maintaining the current Opec/non-Opec supply agreement. It also reinforces the importance of a successful initial public offering of Saudi Aramco in 2018, a key piece of the economic reform plan aimed at raising $100bn for a public investment fund.

美国页岩革命对这项改革计划构成进一步的挑战，积极增产的美国页岩油生产企业能够承受低于很多人预期的油价水平，这似乎制约了油价上涨。从石油市场的角度来看，沙特计划放慢改革速度的消息，加大了通过维持当前的石油输出国组织(Opec，简称：欧佩克)/非欧佩克国家供应协议来增加收入的压力。这还增强了沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)在2018年成功完成首次公开发行(IPO)的重要性，此举是该国经济改革计划的关键一环，旨在为一只公共投资基金筹集1000亿美元。

Saudi Arabia matters immensely, both as a swing supplier of oil and for stability and security in the region. A serious effort to reduce its dependence on oil revenue, open up to foreign investment and liberalise its society should be supported and encouraged. Yet the challenges remain immense, especially as the shale era depresses oil prices and efforts to close the resulting fiscal deficits slow the economy.

沙特阿拉伯极为重要，它既是一个举足轻重的石油供应者，还对地区的稳定与安全至关重要。降低对石油收入的依赖、向外资开放以及允许该国社会自由化的认真努力，应该得到支持和鼓励。然而，挑战仍然巨大，尤其是考虑到页岩时代抑制油价，而弥补由此导致的财政赤字的努力将减缓经济。

The writer is a former special assistant to President Barack Obama and director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University

本文作者曾担任巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统的特别助理，现任哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)主任