巴西欢迎中国投资基础设施
当中国总理李克强试图强调北京方面与巴西的紧密关系时，他曾写到中国人对巴西肥皂剧的喜爱，比如上世纪70年代的电视连续剧《女奴》(Escrava Isaura)。这部在中国脍炙人口的电视剧，描述了美丽质朴的伊佐拉与逆境斗争的曲折故事。
A similar narrative could be applied — admittedly with a great deal less romantic heat — to Brazil’s seesawing economic relationship with China. The ardour that had attended the boom in commodity exports to China from the early years of the millennium had dissipated by 2015 as an economic crash threw millions out of work.
类似的描述也适用于阐释巴西与中国忽冷忽热的经济关系，但不可否认的是这其中并没有那么多浪漫元素。21世纪头些年里伴随巴西对华大宗商品出口繁荣的热情，到2015年已消失殆尽——那时巴西遭遇经济崩溃，导致数百万人失去工作。
But in the same 2015 article in which he lionised Isaura, Li struck an optimistic tone. The “natural partners” would forge a new path that would transcend the reliance on commodity trade and emphasise Chinese investment in infrastructure to help Brazil avoid the “middle income trap”, Li wrote.
但是就在2015年李克强赞美伊佐拉的那篇文章里，他表现出了乐观的情绪。他写道，中巴这两个“天然的合作伙伴”将走出一条超越对大宗商品贸易依赖的新路，并强调中国对巴西基础设施的投资将帮助巴西跨越“中等收入陷阱”。
“China is willing to participate in the Brazilian freight railway network, power grid, communications network and other large construction projects, and co-operate with the Brazilian side through the whole industrial chain in shipbuilding, chemical, oil and gas exploration and other areas,” Li added.
李克强还称，“中方愿参与巴西货运铁路网、电网、通信网等重大项目建设，与巴方一道推进造船、化工、油气勘探等领域全产业链合作。”
Over the past 18 months, Beijing has started delivering, in emphatic fashion. Kevin Gallagher, professor of global development policy at Boston University, says a new phase in China’s commercial relationship with Brazil is under way. “The boom is over with respect to commodities, but there is now a shift toward infrastructure, banking and some manufacturing.”
过去18个月，北京方面开始明确兑现承诺。波士顿大学(Boston University)全球发展政策教授凯文•加拉格尔(Kevin Gallagher)表示，中国与巴西的商业关系正步入新阶段。“大宗商品繁荣期已经结束，但是如今基础设施业、银行业和部分制造业正在活跃起来。”
One of the clearest expressions of China’s new resolve came in June this year, when it agreed to allocate $15bn toward a bilateral $20bn fund earmarked mainly for infrastructure projects. Brazilian financial institutions are scheduled to provide $5bn to the fund, which was first proposed by Li during his 2015 visit to the country.
有关中国新决心最清晰的表现之一出现在今年6月，当时中方同意为总值200亿美元的双边基金(主要用于基础设施项目)出资150亿美元。巴西金融机构计划为该基金出资50亿美元。此项基金最初由李克强在2015年访问巴西时提出。
“China has been really quick in setting up the $20bn infrastructure fund because it wants to get going [on investments],” Gallagher says. “Brazil is, of course, very hot to trot because the cost of capital is expensive for it right now. Brazil has major infrastructure gaps that won’t be filled by private capital or even development banks, so those funds are sorely needed.”
“中国很快就成立了这个总值200亿美元的基建基金，因为它想开始(投资)，”加拉格尔表示，“当然，巴西非常乐意配合，因为如今对它来说资本的成本太高了。巴西存在很大的基建缺口，私人资本、甚至发展银行都无法填补，因此巴西迫切需要这些基金。”
The scope of Brazil’s infrastructure needs — and therefore the size of the opportunity to China’s contract-hungry engineering companies — is huge. The Global Infrastructure Hub, a G20 research initiative, estimates that Brazil will need to put $2.7tn into infrastructure by 2040, but at the current rate of investment will achieve only $1.5tn of this, leaving a shortfall of $1.2tn.
巴西对基建的需求巨大，因此也给迫切需要合同的中国工程公司带来了巨大的机遇。二十国集团(G20)研究计划“全球基础设施中心”(Global Infrastructure Hub)预计，2040年年底前，巴西将需要向基建投入2.7万亿美元，但以目前的投资速度只能获得1.5万亿美元的资金，还剩1.2万亿美元的资金缺口。
Such pressures, reinforced by those of an economy in recession, have led to a more open attitude to foreigners owning and building infrastructure. China’s big state groups have seized on this, snapping up some prize infrastructure assets and preparing bids for many more, officials and analysts say.
此类压力、再加上经济衰退带来的压力，导致巴西对外国人拥有并建设基础设施持较为开放的态度。政府官员和分析师表示，中国大型国企抓住了这一点，抢占了部分一流的基建资产并准备参与更多项目竞标。
“Some countries will not allow investment from China in these sectors [basic infrastructure], but this is not the case in Brazil,” says Roberto Jaguaribe, president of Apex-Brazil, the Brazilian trade and investment promotion agency. “We are very open to infrastructure investments from China.”
“一些国家不允许中国投资进入这些领域(基建)，但巴西不是这样，”巴西出口投资促进局(Apex-Brazil)主席罗伯托•雅瓜里贝(Roberto Jaguaribe)表示，“我们非常欢迎中国资本投资基建。”
Jaguaribe, a former Brazilian ambassador to China, is in no doubt about the macroeconomic importance that Chinese investments represent as his country grapples to free itself from the deep recession that followed the commodity boom. “China is the biggest year-to-year investor in Brazil in recent years and we think these investments are going to go even higher,” he says.
前巴西驻华大使雅瓜里贝认为，在巴西努力摆脱在大宗商品繁荣后到来的深度衰退之际，中国投资对巴西宏观经济的重要性是毫无疑问的。他称，“近年来中国是对巴投资同比增速最快的国家，我们认为中国投资还会越来越多。”
In hard numbers, China’s infrastructure-led acquisitions amounted to $5.7bn in the first four months of 2017, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of total inward investment, according to Dealogic, the consultancy. The Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce in São Paulo predicts this number could reach $20bn for the whole of 2017, up 70 per cent on 2016.
以具体数据来看，根据咨询机构Dealogic的数据显示，2017年第一季度与基建有关的中国企业收购总计达57亿美元，几乎占巴西外来投资总额的40%。位于圣保罗的巴中工商总会(Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry)预计，2017年整年的数字可能将达到200亿美元，较2016年增长70%。
The importance of Chinese infrastructure investments can be seen clearly in the power generation and transmission sectors. State Grid Corp, a state-owned Chinese power transmission company and the world’s largest utility, bought a controlling stake in CPFL Energia last year. This made the Chinese company, which already operated nearly 10,000km of power lines in Brazil, responsible for one of the largest parts of the country’s power grid.
在巴西发电和输电部门可以明显看出中国基建投资的重要性。全世界最大的公用事业公司、中国国有输电公司国家电网(State Grid Corp)，去年收购了CPFL Energia的控股权。这使得这家已经运营了巴西近10000公里输电线的中国企业，控制了巴西电网的最大部分之一。
In power generation, the China Three Gorges Corporation bought a 30-year franchise for two large hydropower plants, the Jupiá and Ilha Solteira, for $3.7bn in late 2015. But this might be just the start of a wave of deals. Several other Chinese power companies, including Shanghai Electric, China Southern Power Grid and Huaneng, are considering bids for power industry assets set to be sold off, analysts say.
在发电方面，2015年末中国长江三峡集团公司(China Three Gorges Corporation)以37亿美元收购了Jupiá和Ilha Solteira这两座电站30年的特许经营权。但这可能只是这波交易潮的开始。分析人士称，包括上海电气(Shanghai Electric)、中国南方电网(China Southern Power Grid)和华能(Huaneng)等其他几家中国电力公司正在考虑竞标计划出售的电力资产。
In one sense, the Chinese are acting as white knights. Some Brazilian electricity companies’ debt is rising to unsustainable levels, exacerbated by the recession and a government measure in 2012 that forced companies to cut tariffs to renew their 30-year contracts with the government. A severe drought between 2013 and 2015 shrivelled the country’s reservoirs, hitting hydropower companies hard, as customers switched from hydroelectric to thermoelectric sources.
在某种意义上，中国正在扮演白衣骑士的角色。受经济衰退和2012年巴西政府措施(要求企业必须下调电费价格才能续签与政府的30年合同)拖累，一些巴西电力公司的债务正在攀升至不可持续的水平。2013年至2015年的严重干旱使得巴西的水库干涸，重创了水电公司，因为用户从水电转向了热电。
The strategic dimension to this is that Beijing regards Brazil as an important ally in the developing world, a key potential market of more than 200m people and a springboard for commercial opportunities in the rest of Latin America. That Brazil is situated in the strategic backyard of the US, which has an increasingly fraught relationship with China, only increases the value of Beijing’s ties with the country.
在战略层面上，北京方面把巴西视为发展中世界的重要盟友、拥有逾2亿人口的关键潜在市场、也是中国企业在拉美其他地区寻找商业机会的跳板。在地理位置上，巴西正处于美国的战略后院内。美国与中国的关系愈发令人担忧，这只会进一步提升中巴关系的重要性。
There are, however, residual concerns, says Jaguaribe. Chinese infrastructure companies should be careful to observe Brazilian labour practices, environmental and social standards as they go about acquiring big chunks of the country’s basic infrastructure, he warns. “The biggest barrier is that they can’t act abroad as they do in China,” says Jaguaribe. “Some countries let them do this, but this does not happen in Brazil.”
然而，雅瓜里贝表示仍然存在一些顾虑。他警告称，中国基建公司在准备收购巴西大型基建项目时，应该小心遵守巴西在用工做法、环境和社会方面的标准。“最大的障碍是他们不能像在中国一样在外国行事，”雅瓜里贝表示，“一些国家允许他们这样做，但巴西不会。”
