外交手段可以控制核威胁

Nuclear weapons are back on the agenda. There is now a greater risk of them being used than at any time since the 1960s. While we wrestle with America’s global retreat, Brexit, and dealing with Islamist terrorism, we must not lose sight of the one issue that could upend the international order and destroy our way of life.

核武器问题重新提上了日程。自1960年代以来，如今动用它们的可能性比任何时候都要大。当我们竭力应对美国的全球大撤退、英国退欧、以及伊斯兰恐怖主义时，绝不能忽视一个可能会颠覆国际秩序并破坏我们的生活方式的问题。

There are now nine states with nuclear weapons. For six of them — the US, Britain, France, Israel, India and China — they are purely defensive weapons, designed solely as the ultimate means to deter attack. The remaining three think differently. Russia and Pakistan also conceive of using nuclear weapons as a means of turning a limited conflict in their favour. North Korea wants nuclear weapons to hold others at threat, both to protect the regime and to secure more practical benefits.

当今拥有核武器的国家有9个。对于其中6个国家——美国、英国、法国、以色列、印度和中国——核武器纯粹是防御性的，仅为以威慑阻止他方攻击的最终手段。其余3个国家的想法则不同。俄罗斯和巴基斯坦还想利用核武器使有限的冲突对他们有利。朝鲜想利用核武器威胁其他国家，既为保卫政权，也为获得更多实际好处。(注：题图为美国示威者抗议特朗普对朝军事威胁。)

Nuclear weapons create a military balance where one does not exist between conventional forces. During the cold war, the Soviets had superior armed forces and Nato had to rely on the threat of nuclear retaliation to keep the peace. The balance is now reversed. However skilful Russia’s use of the new weapons of hybrid warfare, the balance between regular forces is now reversed. Russia’s military doctrine also provides for battlefield nuclear weapons being used to bring a war in central Europe to an end on Russia’s terms. Its forces train for that scenario, and we have to take it seriously.

核武器能创造出一种军事均势的局面，这种平衡在常规军事力量之间是不存在的。冷战期间，苏联拥有优越的武装力量，而北约(NATO)不得不依靠核报复的威胁来维持和平。这种平衡如今颠倒了。不论俄罗斯多么巧妙地运用了混合战争的新式武器，常规军事力量之间的平衡如今都被颠覆了。俄罗斯的军事信条还支持俄罗斯使用战场核武器让一场中欧战争以俄罗斯的条件终结。其军队为应对这一情景进行训练，我们不得不认真对待。

Pakistan has developed battlefield nuclear weapons as a means to defend itself. India has declared that it would respond militarily if there was another major terror attack out of Pakistan like the one in Mumbai in 2008. Knowing they would be overwhelmed by Indian forces, these weapons are Pakistan’s way to halt Indian forces shortly after they cross the border. When I was chief of MI6, I was concerned that the Indians did not understand how quickly they could cross a Pakistani nuclear tripwire. A wider nuclear exchange then becomes a real risk.

巴基斯坦已研发出战场核武器作为自卫的手段。印度宣布，如果再次发生如2008年孟买那样的来自巴基斯坦的重大恐怖袭击，印度将作出军事回应。巴基斯坦明白他们会被印度的军事力量压倒，因此这些核武器是在印度军队越过边界后，巴基斯坦迅速阻挡他们的手段。当我还是英国军情六处(MI6)负责人时，我曾担心印度人不了解他们能多快穿越巴基斯坦的核武器防线。于是一场更大范围的核交火变成了真正的风险。

North Korea is the issue of the day. The objective of a denuclearised Korean peninsula, pursued by the previous US administrations, is no longer an achievable goal. The best that can be hoped for is the suspension of nuclear and missile testing in return for security assurances and practical aid. Sanctions are designed to draw Kim Jong Un into a negotiation with that aim, and to pressure China to take a more active part.

朝鲜是当今的首要问题。美国前几届政府追求的朝鲜半岛无核化不再是可实现的目标。现在能够指望的最好结果是朝鲜暂停核武和导弹试验以换取安全保证和物质援助。制裁的目的是让金正恩(Kim Jong Un)就该目标谈判，并敦促中国发挥更为积极的作用。

But it is very hard to see President Kim pulling back now. And China is more concerned about a new US-led war in Korea or the north collapsing and sending millions of refugees into China, than it is about living with a nuclear armed Pyongyang.

但现在很难看到金正恩退缩。相比与拥有核武器的朝鲜比邻而居，中国更担心朝鲜半岛爆发新的由美国主导的战争，或者朝鲜政权崩溃，从而导致数百万难民进入中国。

The US only really has two strategic options: contain and deter the threat; or destroy it, which would require regime change. There are always military options. But all who have studied the secret Pentagon plans are sobered by the scale of loss of life in South Korea these would entail. There is also a risk of China reluctantly coming to the aid of the north as it did in the 1950s.

美国真的只有两个战略选项：遏制并用威慑吓阻朝鲜的核武威胁;或者摧毁这种威胁，这就必须出现朝鲜的政权更迭。军事选项总是存在的。但五角大楼的秘密计划将会导致韩国出现巨大伤亡，所有研究过这些计划的人都会因此变得冷静下来。此外还存在中国在不情愿的情况下像上世纪50年代那样援助朝鲜的风险。

Realistically, it seems the only practical option is containment. That requires missile defence systems to create uncertainty that nuclear-tipped missiles would ever get through to their target, and to deter any use of such weapons by being clear that North Korea would be destroyed if it ever tried to use them. Mr Kim may be hard for us to comprehend, but he is a rational actor and he is certainly not suicidal.

现实而言，唯一务实的选择似乎只有遏制了。这要求部署导弹防御系统，从而使得带有核弹头的导弹不一定能够击中目标，以及通过明确表示如果朝鲜试图使用核武器就会被摧毁，从而威慑朝鲜不敢使用此类武器。我们可能很难理解金正恩，但他是理性的，当然不会自取灭亡。

US concern about this isn’t exaggerated by the Trump administration: it has a serious problem on its hands. However much we may view containment as the only sensible answer, there are still dangers of miscalculation. Mr Kim may be tempted to use his nuclear arsenal to hold others to ransom.

特朗普政府没有夸大美国对朝鲜问题的担忧：这是它手头上的严肃问题。无论我们多么将遏制视为唯一明智的解决办法，仍然存在误判的风险。金正恩可能忍不住使用其核武器来勒索其他国家。

There is also a proliferation threat. We have seen how Pyongyang has used its nuclear technology as an export earner. In 2007, the Israelis destroyed a secret nuclear reactor in the Syrian desert that had been designed and built by the North Koreans.

还存在核扩散的风险。我们已经看到朝鲜是如何使用其核技术来出口创汇的。2007年，以色列人摧毁了叙利亚沙漠里的一个秘密核反应堆，这正是由朝鲜人设计和建造的。

Is it conceivable that a future terrorist organisation might be able to obtain such a device? Unlikely. But if they had the means, then Pyongyang would be the first place to go to get it. Pakistan’s ambivalent relationship with terrorist organisations adds to the dangers.

可以想象未来的恐怖主义组织能够获得此类设备吗?不太可能。但一旦他们有办法，那么平壤将是他们获得这种设备的首选地。巴基斯坦与恐怖主义组织的暧昧关系更是让这种风险上升。

One country where our nuclear weapons concerns had eased is Iran. The nuclear agreement has its weaknesses, especially that it only applies for 10 years. But it is worth having, and Tehran is complying by its technical requirements. If Donald Trump walks from the nuclear deal — as he threatened at the UN last week — then before long he could find he has another North Korea to deal with, this one in the Gulf.

我们的核武担忧减轻的一个国家是伊朗。伊朗核协议有缺陷，尤其是它只适用10年时间。但值得签署此类协议，而且德黑兰正在遵守对其的技术要求。如果唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)撕毁这份核协议——就像他上周在联合国威胁的那样——那么不久后他就可能发现又有一个朝鲜要应对，这次是在波斯湾。

The outlook on nuclear weapons might look grim. But as we showed in the cold war, these issues are manageable with skilful diplomacy and the right investments in defence. We just have to give it the right degree of priority.

核武器的前景可能看起来很严峻。但正如我们在冷战期间证明的那样，这些问题可以通过巧妙的外交手段和适当的防务投资来控制。我们只不过要给予它正确的优先级别。

When I was at MI6, and before that our negotiator with Iran on its nuclear programme, I was always mindful of the nuclear threat. The only issue that can seriously threaten our way of life must be among our top international security priorities.

当我在军情六处的时候，以及在此之前担任谈判代表与伊朗就其核计划展开谈判的时候，我总是不忘核威胁。对于唯一真正威胁到我们生活方式的问题，必须给予最高国际安全优先级别。

The writer is chairman of Macro Advisory Partners and a former chief of MI6, the British Secret Intelligence Service

本文作者现任宏观顾问机构(Macro Advisory Partners)主席，曾担任英国秘密情报局(British Secret Intelligence Service，亦称军情六处)的局长