短线观点：中国要学会对人民币汇率放手

Put helicopters in the same sentence as central banks and the assumption is you are discussing boosting an economy by showering cash from on high. In China, however, the notion is in reality more akin to so-called “helicopter parenting”, given Beijing’s constant micromanagement. The renminbi is one example. If China truly wants to internationalise its currency, it must learn to let go.

把“直升机”与“央行”放在一个句子里，人们会假设你说的是从高处抛撒现金以提振经济。然而在中国，北京方面持续不断的微观管理意味着，这个概念实际上更像所谓的“直升机式育儿”。人民币就是一个例子。如果中国真的要让人民币国际化，它必须学会放手。

Last week was a case in point. A rapid rally in the renminbi pushed the currency to 21-month highs before the People’s Bank of China relaxed two controls that had acted to boost the currency. The moves could be seen as a stepping back, if it were not for two things. The tweaks were targeted at limiting a rally, not letting the renminbi find its own level. And the gains were ed by the onshore market, which in itself is a sign of the PBoC’s control because it has crushed the offshore market — the wilder of the two renminbi markets — during the past two years.

上周就是一个说明问题的例子。快速上涨使人民币汇率升至21个月高点，随后中国人民银行(PBoC)放松了之前采取的旨在提振人民币的两项控制措施。要不是两件事，这些举动可以被看作后退一步。首先，这些微调的目的是遏制涨幅，而不是让人民币发现自己的水平。其次，人民币汇率涨幅是由在岸市场引领的，这本身就是中国人民银行实行管控的一个标志，因为近两年来它压制了人民币离岸市场，即两个人民币市场中比较野性的那个市场。

If China is ever to change its helicopter habits, the offshore market is the key. Unlike onshore traders, tethered to moving the renminbi by a maximum of 2 per cent each day from a central point (and in reality never using half that range), their offshore brethren can in theory set their own level. But this has not been happening. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong have virtually halved and a weaker currency is only one reason. The renminbi “dim sum” bond market has also shrunk dramatically, while China too has played its part by restricting renminbi flows into Hong Kong. With fewer products and a far smaller liquidity pool, many international investors have little interest in the market.

如果中国有朝一日要改变“直升机”习惯，离岸市场将是关键。与在岸交易员(被限制在人民币每日中间价上下2%的浮动区间范围内，实际上从未用到一半区间)不同，离岸交易员理论上可以设定自己的价位。但这种情况尚未发生过。香港的人民币存款已几乎减半，这其中人民币走弱只是一个原因。人民币“点心”债券市场也已戏剧性缩水，而中国通过限制人民币流入香港也在这方面发挥了作用。由于产品数量较少，且流动资金池小得多，许多国际投资者对该市场没什么兴趣。

Internationalisation has no single definition. Standard Chartered, for example, is now factoring foreign investors’ onshore access into its renminbi globalisation index, which in July gained by the most in almost two years. The renminbi has also edged back into fifth place among international payment currencies. But these are small developments in light of China’s overall control. For the renminbi to internationalise, investors worldwide would have to be comfortable in their ability to trade it at will, and Chinese officials would need to leave the market alone. Either, right now, is as likely as money falling from helicopters.

国际化没有单一的定义。例如，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)目前将在岸市场的外国投资者准入程度计入其人民币全球化指数，7月份该指数出现近两年来最大涨幅。人民币在国际支付货币中的排名也回升至第五位。但从中国的整体控制看，这些都是小的发展。要让人民币国际化，就必须让世界各地的投资者对自己自由买卖的能力感到放心，同时中国官员们将需要放手让市场自行运转。目前来看，这两者的几率都像直升机撒钱一样渺茫。