英国央行行长：英国退欧是“去全球化”实例

Brexit is a unique example of de-globalisation that will hurt Britain’s economy as trade ties with the EU are weakened, leading to higher inflationary pressures even after the effect of sterling’s recent depreciation disappears, Mark Carney said on Monday.

马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)周一表示，英国退欧是去全球化(de-globalisation)的一个独特例子，且随着与欧盟的贸易关系被削弱，英国经济将受损，即使在英镑近期贬值的影响消失后，仍会导致通胀压力加大。

The Bank of England governor said that even though the intention of Brexit was not to close the UK off from the rest of the world that would initially be the main result because trade ties with Europe would be damaged and those with other countries would take time to grow.

英国央行(BoE)行长称，尽管英国退欧的意图并不是让英国闭关锁国，但这将成为退欧后初期的主要结果，因为英国与欧洲的贸易纽带将遭到破坏，而与其他国家之间的贸易纽带将需要时间才能成长。

This makes Brexit an example of “de-globalisation”, said Mr Carney, which would mean higher prices for consumers and the likelihood of higher interest rates to keep inflation under control.

卡尼表示，这使得英国退欧成为“去全球化”的一个例子，它对消费者而言将意味着物价上涨，还意味着通过加息来控制通胀的可能性。

Mr Carney was delivering the annual Camdessus lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

卡尼是在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织(IMF)年度康德苏(Camdessus)讲座上发表上述言论的。

Speaking about the past 50 years, he said the process of globalisation had led to lower inflation and lower interest rates in many countries. Better trade integration had improved the supply of goods, services and labour.

在谈到过去50年的发展时，他表示，全球化进程降低了许多国家的通胀和利率。更完善的贸易一体化改善了商品、服务和劳动力的供应。

Brexit, he said, was a “unique” experiment compared with this period. “It will be, at least for a period of time, an example of de-globalisation not globalisation,” added Mr Carney. “It will proceed rapidly not slowly. Its effects will not build by stealth but can be anticipated.”

他说，与这一时期相比，英国退欧是一个“独特的”实验。“至少在一段时间内，它将成为去全球化、而非全球化的一个例子，”卡尼补充说，“它将快速(而非缓慢)推进。其影响不会悄悄累积，而是可以预见的。”

Saying that retaining existing trade links with the EU “may be challenging”, particularly in industries with integrated supply chains, Mr Carney said Brexit was likely to be inflationary and “these inflationary effects may be reinforced by developments in the labour market” as Britain shifts to a more restrictive immigration regime.

卡尼表示，保持与欧盟现有的贸易联系“可能具有挑战性”，尤其是在拥有一体化供应链的行业。他表示，英国退欧很可能具有通胀效应，而随着英国转向更加苛刻的移民制度，“这些通胀效应可能会因劳动力市场的变化而被强化”。

He added that productivity was likely to be hit. “It is critical to recognise that Brexit represents a real shock about which monetary policy can do little,” said Mr Carney, in a tough message to politicians that they should not look to the BoE to get them out of any economic difficulties.

他补充说，生产率可能会受到打击。卡尼表示：“至关重要的是要认识到，英国退欧代表着一场真正的冲击，而货币政策对此帮不了什么。”他向政界人士发出的强烈信号是，他们不应指望英国央行帮助他们摆脱任何经济困难。

“The actual impact [on productivity] will depend on how quickly any lost access to European and third country markets can be replaced.”

“(对生产率)的实际影响将取决于能够多快置换失去的欧洲及第三国市场准入。”

His warning that Brexit was likely to prove inflationary did not relate to the current rise in consumer prices, which has been fuelled by the fall in sterling since the UK vote to leave in the EU last year.

卡尼发出的有关英国退欧很可能被证明具有通胀效应的警告，与当前的消费价格上涨无关，后者是去年英国公投决定退欧后英镑贬值的结果。

Instead his remarks were focused on how the UK’s weaker trade ties after Brexit would limit the speed at which the economy could expand. Any growth after Brexit would therefore be more inflationary than before, and require higher interest rates.

相反，他的言论聚焦于退欧后英国更弱的对外经贸联系将如何限制英国经济扩张的速度。因此，英国退欧后的任何增长，都将产生比以往更大的通胀效应，并要求更高的利率。

Mr Carney noted the BoE Monetary Policy Committee had cut interest rates after the EU referendum, but now the initial shock of the Brexit decision had passed.

卡尼指出，英国央行货币政策委员会(BoE Monetary Policy Committee)在退欧公投后下调了利率，但如今，退欧决定带来的最初冲击已经过去。

In a hawkish message, he added: “This stimulus is working . . . as a consequence the trade-off between inflation and spare capacity is diminishing.”

他带着鹰派口吻补充说：“这一刺激正在发挥作用……其后果是，通胀和闲置产能之间的取舍关系正在消失。”

Mr Carney was not seeking to talk up the pound. He said that after Brexit, sterling would reflect changes in the UK’s terms of trade, among other things.

卡尼无意通过言论来提振英镑汇率。他表示，英国退欧后，英镑将反映出英国贸易条件等情况的变化。