人民币还会继续升值？

The renminbi used to shake the world. The biggest global markets scare of the past six years came after China allowed the Rmb to devalue very sharply in August 2015. After that, China’s currency became a big issue in the US election, even if the administration has not prioritised it in office so far. The latest development is different. It has risen very fast. And this time, beyond the world of those most directly involved in the Chinese foreign exchange markets, it has barely attracted comment.

人民币曾撼动世界。在2015年8月中国允许人民币急剧贬值之后，过去6年来最大规模的一场全球市场恐慌来临。此后，人民币成为美国选举中的重大问题，即便这届美国政府上台后还一直没有把它列为优先政务。最新动向则有所不同。人民币近来快速升值。但这次基本上没引起什么评论，最直接涉及中国外汇市场者除外。

There are various reasons for this. The first is a result of the furore of two years ago. There is a strong tendency to view Chinese authorities as all-powerful villains from James Bond movies, calmly directing everything according to a central plan, as they plot world domination. Every contradictory move would be minutely analysed to work out how it fitted in the grand plan. After the dreadfully ham-fisted response in August 2015, outside analysts have begun to grasp that Chinese officials, like their counterparts elsewhere, are often just making things up as they go along, and reacting to events.

原因有很多。首先，这是两年前那场群情激奋的结果。人们很容易将中国当局视为《007》(James Bond)系列影片中的强大恶棍，他们从容不迫地按照中央计划指导一切，并密谋主宰世界。每个自相矛盾的举措都将被仔细分析，以找出它如何服务于整体计划。在2015年8月中国极为拙劣的回应之后，外部分析师开始明白，中国官员与其他国家的官员一样，往往只是走一步算一步，见招拆招、随机应变。

A second reason is that the Chinese response this time is transparently driven by the recent weakness of the dollar. Strengthening the Rmb against the dollar keeps it more stable against other currencies. The following chart compares the exchange rates with the dollar and the euro. China’s currency has weakened against the euro, until the past few weeks.

第二个原因是，中国这次的回应显然是最近美元疲弱推动的。人民币兑美元汇率升值让它兑其他货币的汇率更加稳定。下图比较了人民币兑美元和兑欧元的汇率。人民币对欧元直至过去几周一直是贬值的。

Viewed in terms of its real effective exchange rate (as calculated by Barclays), China’s currency is roughly back where it started the year, and still significantly lower than it was before the messy devaluation of August 2015:

从实际有效汇率来看(如巴克莱(Barclays)所计算)，人民币基本回到了今年年初的水平，但仍远低于2015年8月那次无序贬值前的水平。

Then came the latest thrilling development. At the end of last week, the authorities announced that they were relaxing restrictions on selling short the currency. As Lex puts it, this appeared to be an invitation to press the currency down, even against the dollar. How should we interpret this? It is probably best to think in terms of officials reacting to events and making things up as they go along. But there may be more to it than that. NatWest Markets’ Mansoor Mohi-uddin said:

随后就出现了最近的激动人心的动向。一周前，中国有关部门宣布，他们将放松对卖空人民币的限制。正如英国《金融时报》的Lex专栏所言，这似乎是邀请人们压低人民币汇率，甚至是压低人民币兑美元汇率。对此我们应该如何解读?也许最好把这看成官员们在见招拆招、随机应变。但实际情况也可能并非如此简单。以下为NatWest Markets的曼苏尔•毛希丁(Mansoor Mohi-Uddin)所述：

This week we visited clients and officials in Beijing and Shanghai. Dollar-yuan has continued to fall through 6.50 to breach 6.45 on Friday. But news late yesterday the People’s Bank of China was removing its 20% reserve requirement on FX forward trading — imposed in 2015 to support the yuan — helped the pair end the week higher back near 6.50.

我们近来拜访了北京和上海的客户和官员。9月8日，美元兑人民币汇率跌至6.50后继续下探，击穿6.45。但中国人民银行(PBoC)将取消远期卖汇业务20%外汇风险准备金要求的消息，帮助人民币兑美元汇率重回6.50附近——中国人民银行从2015年开始对远期卖汇业务征收20%的外汇风险准备金、以支撑人民币汇率。

We recommend staying short dollar-yuan. But we would not add to positions at current levels given the risks of further action by policymakers.

我们建议继续做空美元兑人民币汇率。但我们不会增加现有头寸水平，因为政策制定者可能还会出台进一步举措。

First, domestic corporates still have greenbacks to sell. Local companies have been caught out this year by accumulating foreign exchange at the start of 2017 and then being forced to sell after the authorities engineered a stronger yuan from 6.90 against the dollar in May to encourage foreign participation in China’s and Hong Kong’s new Bond Connect. Local banks we met were divided on how much more dollars domestic corporates needed to sell. But some banks thought Chinese companies were only half way through cutting greenback longs.

首先，中国企业还会继续抛售美元。中国企业在2017年年初积累外汇，随后被迫抛售，因为今年5月政府让人民币兑美元汇率从6.90的水平一路升值，以鼓励外资参与中国内地和香港新推出的“债券通”项目。我们拜访的中国银行对中国企业还需要抛售多少美元意见不一。但一些银行认为，中国企业削减美元储备的过程才进行到一半。

Second, the People’s Bank of China’s options for supporting dollar-yuan in the near term appear constrained by the upcoming Chinese Communist Party’s Congress starting on October 18. Ahead of the event, clients in Beijing and Shanghai felt the monetary authorities could not publicly call for the yuan’s surge to ease. If senior officials at the central bank were to verbally intervene and foreign countries responded adversely, the exchange rate would become a very inconvenient issue at a key time for China’s political leadership.

其次，中国人民银行近期支撑美元兑人民币汇率的可选手段，似乎受到10月18日召开的中共“十九大”的限制。在“十九大”前，北京和上海的客户感到货币当局不能公开呼吁人民币放缓升值。如果中国人民银行的高级官员发声干预，而外国做出负面的回应，汇率就会在中国政治领导层换届这个节骨眼上成为极其棘手的问题。

Third, increased carry costs this year are also forcing onshore dollar longs to cut their positions. The short-term 1Y China government bond — US Treasury yield differential currently stands at 227bps compared with 140bps at the end of 2016.

第三，今年持有成本增加也迫使在岸美元多头削减头寸。中美的1年期政府债券收益率差目前是227个基点，而2016年年底是140个基点。

Fourth, alternative indicators signal continuing yuan strength. In the CSI 300 equity index, cyclical real estate developers have been underperforming defensive healthcare providers this year as China’s important property sector cools. This suggests Chinese demand for iron ore may ease in future to the benefit of the yuan.

第四，其他指标表明人民币将会继续升值。从沪深300(CSI 300)股指来看，随着中国至关重要的房地产行业降温，今年周期性的房地产板块的表现一直不如防御性的医疗板块。这表明中国对铁矿石的需求可能在未来下降，这有利于人民币升值。

Last, offshore demand has begun to rise. The total amount of yuan (CNH) deposits in Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore and Taipei have picked up since March. This marks a reversal of the trend seen after the yuan’s devaluation in August 2015 when CNH deposits across Asia fell almost every month from CNY1.65trn to CNY950bn in Q1’17.

最后，离岸需求开始升温。香港、首尔、新加坡和台北的离岸人民币(CNH)存款额自今年3月以来增长。这标志着自2015年8月那次人民币贬值以来的趋势开始逆转——当时整个亚洲的离岸人民币存款几乎每月都在下降，从1.65万亿元人民币下降至2017年一季度的9500亿元人民币。

Perhaps another way of summing this up is: Chinese authorities are making this up as they go along, and so should investors.

上面这段话或许可以总结为：因为中国当局正在见机行事，所以投资者也应如此。