德国大选：沉闷好于喧嚣，但并不够
重要的选举未必热闹。德国很快就要进行大选投票了。除德国外整个世界都忍不住哈欠连连。希望看到政坛喧嚣景象的人错了。欧洲目前的状况比一段时间以来都要好，但它无法再将繁荣和安全当作理所当然的事情。沉闷正是这个欧洲最强大的国家所需要的。
For a temporary refugee from Britain’s Brexit convulsions, this week’s televised debate between chancellor Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz, her Social Democratic party challenger, was jarringly tame. The shock would have been greater for those in Washington accustomed to the histrionics fired daily from Donald Trump’s smartphone.
在一个暂时逃离了英国退欧动荡的人看来，本周德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)和来自社民党(SDP)的挑战者马丁•舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)之间的电视辩论平和得令人震惊。在华盛顿那些习惯了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)每天通过智能手机表演日常打嘴炮的人看来，这幅景象应该更令人震惊。
Where were the personal abuse, the invented facts and casual lies? Had neither candidate seen Mr Trump take on Hillary Clinton or France’s Emmanuel Macron face the xenophobic invective of Marine Le Pen? Had they not heard British politicians lie about the vast riches that would flow from Brexit? Try as they might, Ms Merkel and Mr Schulz could not raise the temperature.What separates them politically is a gully rather than an ideological ravine.
人身攻击、捏造事实和随意编造的谎言去哪了?两位候选人都没见识过特朗普攻击希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)或法国马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)对埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的排外主义谩骂吗?他们没听过英国政客是如何谎称英国退欧可以带来巨大财富吗?不管默克尔和舒尔茨如何努力，他们也无法让气氛火热起来。他们之间的政治分歧不是一条意识形态鸿沟，而只是一条小溪。
It adds nothing to the excitement quotient that polls predict Ms Merkel will be returned for a fourth term — quite possibly at the head of another coalition with Mr Schulz’s SPD. Germany has not been immune to the populism destabilising political elites across Europe. The nativist Alternative for Germany is doing its best to whip up Islamophobia in the wake of the 2015 migrant crisis. But it looks unlikely to garner much more than 10 per cent of the vote.
丝毫无助于增加此次德国大选兴奋度的是，民调预测默克尔将赢得她的第四任期——非常可能领导与舒尔茨的社民党的又一次联盟。民粹主义在欧洲各地撼动政治精英阶层，德国对民粹主义也并非免疫。在2015年移民危机后，本土主义政党德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)正竭力煽动伊斯兰恐惧症(Islamophobia)。但该政党的得票似乎不太可能超过10%太多。
The middle-ground consensualism offends many outsiders. Voters, you hear critics say, are being denied a clear “choice”. But was not the postwar constitution, framed by the victors of 1945, designed to promote conciliation? In any event, there is another explanation for the absence of rage. Germany is prosperous and stable in a continent that recently has seemed anything but. The crises of the euro and migration have been contained. Germans, you could say, have already made their choice — they are content with things much as they are.
中间立场的共识主义(consensualism)惹恼了很多局外人。你可以听到批评人士称，选民被剥夺了做出明确“选择”的权利。但1945年由战胜国制定的战后宪法不正是为了促进调和吗?无论如何，还有一个理由可以解释德国为何不愤怒。德国繁荣而稳定，而它所处的大陆近来与这两个词毫不沾边。欧元危机和移民危机已经得到了控制。你可以说，德国人已经做出了选择——他们对现状基本满意。
Those who like noise for its own sake should look at Britain. There the political alternatives are now represented by a ruling party obsessed with the destructive endeavour of wrenching Britain from its own continent and by a far left opposition leader wrapped in nostalgia for Soviet era socialism. The choice between the Conservative prime minister Theresa May and Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn is not one to be wished on anyone else.
那些单纯喜欢热闹的人应该看看英国。眼下的英国政坛提供给选民两个选择，一个是执着于退欧这项毁灭性事业的执政党，另一个是怀念苏联时代社会主义的极左翼反对党领导人。在保守党首相特里萨•梅(Theresa May)和工党领袖杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)之间二选一，这个选择不会是任何人想要的。
What marks out Ms Merkel is not just her longevity (she has broken her promise not to make Helmut Kohl’s mistake of running for a fourth term), but her unabashed support for the open, liberal international order. When others went running to Washington to pay homage to Mr Trump after his election victory, Ms Merkel was studiously insistent she would deal with the new president on her own terms. Her Atlanticism is unquestionable, but not unconditional.
令默克尔与众不同的并不只是她的超长任期(她打破了自己的如下承诺，即不会犯赫尔穆特•科尔(Helmut Kohl)的错误、竞选第四任期)，而是她不加掩饰地支持开放自由的国际秩序。当其他人在特朗普胜选后竞相前往华盛顿向他效忠之际，默克尔故意坚持照自己的想法与这位新总统打交道。她坚持大西洋主义，这是毋庸置疑的，但并不是无条件地坚持。
The threats speak for themselves. Vladimir Putin’s Russia wants to remake Europe’s territorial boundaries. Mr Trump is at once an unreliable and combustible ally. Britain has walked off the foreign policy field. French president Emmanuel Macron has yet to prove himself. Italy’s fractured politics are strained by rising migrant flows from North Africa. Poland and Hungary bank hefty cheques from the EU while disowning its liberal values.
威胁不言自明。弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯希望重新划定欧洲边界。同时，特朗普是既靠不住又易激动的盟友。英国离开了外交政策舞台。法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙尚未证明自己。意大利支离破碎的政治正承受着北非移民日益增多的压力。波兰和匈牙利不断从欧盟手中接过高额支票，同时拒不接受欧盟的自由主义价值观。
For the moment a steady Germany is what Europe has left in terms of a nation willing to stand up for the norms and institutions of the postwar order.
此时，稳定的德国是欧洲仅存的愿意捍卫战后秩序准则和制度的国家。
Mr Trump’s belligerent nationalism and Britain’s break with Europe have torn the fabric of the west. The German chancellor is not giving up. Her commitments to freedom, the rule of law and democratic institutions are rooted in 35 years spent in the communist east. As the journalist Stefan Kornelius observes in an excellent biography, Ms Merkel knows that the liberal democracy that has assured Europe of peace and prosperity is not “a law of nature”.
特朗普坚持好斗的民族主义以及英国与欧盟分道扬镳，这两件事撕裂了西方。德国总理默克尔并未放弃。她对自由、法治和民主制度的坚守来源于她在共产主义东德生活的35年。正如记者斯特凡•科内柳斯(Stefan Kornelius)在一本出色的传记中所说的那样，默克尔知道，确保欧洲和平和繁荣的自由民主并不是“自然规律”。
The chancellor is no saint. There is national self-interest at stake. Germany has been a big winner from the rules-based system and from economic globalisation. Business and exports have thrived as successive governments have sheltered under America’s security umbrella and eschewed international responsibilities beyond Europe. Ms Merkel seems to understand that the days of free-riding are over. She has made rebuilding the Franco-German relationship a priority and has added to the defence budget. And yet there is still a conscious timidity. She talks about such things to voters only in the vaguest terms.
默克尔不是圣人。她考虑的是是德国自己的利益。德国大大受益于基于规则的体系和经济全球化。德国历届政府都在美国的安全伞下得到庇护、并逃避了欧洲以外的国际责任，在这种情况下，德国商业和出口一直繁荣发展。默克尔似乎知道搭便车的好日子已经结束了。她把重塑法德关系作为重中之重，并且增加了国防预算。但她仍然有意识地羞怯。她只用最含糊的言语向选民谈起这些问题。
Circumstance — Mr Putin’s land grab of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, and the flood of refugees from the Syrian civil war — have forced the chancellor to act. But leadership on the global stage is not something sought or welcomed by the electorate. The further you travel from Berlin, the more reluctant voters are to admit that Germany can no longer hide behind its history. Dull is good, especially when it substitutes for mendacity. But it is not enough. What has been missing in the campaign is a serious discussion of the international role Germany can no longer avoid.
普京强占克里米亚并入侵乌克兰东部、叙利亚内战导致大量难民涌入欧洲，这些情况迫使默克尔采取行动。但德国选民并不希望、也不愿意德国在全球舞台上发挥领导作用。距离柏林越远的选民，越不愿意承认德国再也无法以历史为借口逃避责任。沉闷是好的，尤其是跟谎言相比。但仅有沉闷是不够的。此次竞选所缺失的，正是有关德国无法再逃避其国际角色的认真讨论。
The writer at present is a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow of the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin
本文作者目前是柏林罗伯特•博世基金会(Robert Bosch Academy)理查德•冯•魏茨泽克(Richard von Weizsäcker)研究员
