FT社评：飓风“哈维”的“成本核算”

Contrary to much commentary, America’s response to Hurricane Harvey has so far been good. It is tragic but remarkable that fewer than 40 people have lost their lives in Houston and its environs, given the scale of the disaster. The death toll is likely to rise but the contrast with South Asia, where more than 1,200 have died from flooding, is yawning. The US federal disaster response system picked up valuable lessons from the debacle of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, such as deferring to authorities on the ground and drawing on the knowledge of local volunteers.

与诸多评价相反的是，迄今为止，美国对飓风“哈维”(Hurricane Harvey)的应对其实还行。它是一场悲剧，但考虑到这场灾难的规模，它又很了不起——在休斯敦及其周边，丧生者不到40人。死亡人数很可能会上升，但与南亚的情况有天壤之别，在南亚，已有1200多人死于洪水。美国联邦救灾系统从对2005年飓风“卡特里娜”(Hurricane Katrina)的极其失败的应对中汲取了宝贵的经验教训，例如要遵从当地政府的意见，以及要利用当地志愿者的才识。

Alas, the same cannot be said of America’s approach to disaster preparedness. Though Harvey is classified as a once-in-500-year flood, this is the third time Houston has been blighted with freak rainfall in as many years. Global warming is real. From the Indian monsoon to America’s hurricane season, extreme weather is becoming more common. Unless we sharply cut carbon emissions, and build more resilient systems to cope with their effects, the cost of such disasters will keep mounting.

遗憾的是，美国的防灾方针就无法得到同样的好评了。虽然“哈维”带来的是五百年一遇的洪水，但这却是休斯敦三年来第三次遭受反常降雨的侵袭。全球变暖是真实的。从印度季风到美国的飓风季，极端天气变得越来越普遍。除非我们大幅削减碳排放并建立更有弹性的系统来应对其影响，否则此类灾害造成的损失将不断增加。

Prevention is cheaper than cure. With each degree-Celsius rise in the global temperature, there is a 7 per cent increase in the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water. That means more extreme storms and floods. Though no specific natural disaster can be solely attributed to global warming, there is no doubt it boosts their frequency and severity. It was thus reckless of Donald Trump’s administration to pull out of the Paris agreement on climate change earlier this year.

防要比治便宜。全球气温每上升1摄氏度，大气的容水能力就增加7%。这意味着更为极端的暴风雨和洪水。虽然没有某一特定的自然灾害可以完全归因于全球变暖，但毫无疑问全球变暖会加大灾害的频率和严重程度。所以说，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府在今年早些时候退出巴黎气候变化协定是草率之举。

Encouragingly, the rest of the world, including erstwhile sceptics such as India, did not follow suit. Moreover, many US states and cities, such as California, are continuing to adhere to the Paris deal targets. Such efforts are invaluable. But there is no substitute for a US commitment to spearhead the global drive. America remains the second-largest carbon emitter behind China and ahead of India. Mr Trump is committed to reviving the fortunes of America’s heaviest-emitting industries. Given the competitiveness of US alternative energy technology, this is morally wrong and commercially myopic.

令人鼓舞的是，世界其他地区——包括印度等过去持怀疑态度的国家——都没有这样做。此外，美国的许多州和城市，比如加利福尼亚州，都在继续遵守巴黎协定的目标。这样的努力是无价的。但没有什么能取代美国承诺引领全球行动。美国仍是排在中国之后、印度之前的全球第二大碳排放国。特朗普正致力于振兴美国碳排放最严重的产业。考虑到美国替代能源技术的竞争力，这么做在道义上是错误的，在商业上是目光短浅的。

Even if Mr Trump were to embrace US leadership, the need to build more resilient systems is urgent. Houston is a classic case in point. In spite of having suffered numerous deluges this century, America’s fourth-largest city has ignored the lessons. Harris County, which includes Houston, has had America’s fastest-growing population in eight of the past nine years. Uniquely among big US cities, Houston has no zoning laws or building codes. Thus vast tracts of prairie, inland waterways and green space have been paved over to make way for residential developments and shopping malls.

即使特朗普欣然认同美国的领导地位，也迫切需要建立更有弹性的系统。休斯敦就是一个典型的例子。尽管本世纪已遭遇多次洪水，这座美国第四大城市却对教训视而不见。休斯敦所在的哈里斯县过去9年有8年人口增速位居全美第一。在美国所有大城市中，只有休斯敦没有区划法或建筑规范。因此，大片草原、内陆水道和绿地被填平，为住宅开发和商场让路。

The effect has been drastically to weaken Houston’s resilience to flooding. Allowing developers to build pretty much anywhere and how they like has certainly kept the cost of housing low. But the bill comes due with each natural disaster. The cost of Hurricane Harvey is estimated at between $75bn and $90bn, and counting. Fewer than one in six homes affected are covered by federal flood insurance. Most of those who have lost their homes have been wiped out.

其结果是，休斯敦抵御洪水的能力大大减弱。允许开发商在几乎任何地方随心所欲地兴建房屋，肯定能压低住房成本。但每场自然灾害都是还账的时刻。“哈维”造成的损失估计在750亿到900亿美元之间，而且数字还在不断增加。仅有不到六分之一的受灾家庭被联邦洪水保险覆盖。绝大多数失去家园的人失去了一切。

As the costs of global warming become more tangible, public action must keep pace. The most vulnerable cities, such as Houston and Miami, need to overhaul their development priorities. The days when building associations dictate housing policy should be over. Washington has done a good job of improving its disaster responsiveness. It must now make prevention a national priority.

随着全球变暖造成的损失变得更加清晰，公共行动的脚步也必须跟上来。那些最脆弱的城市，比如休斯敦和迈阿密，需要全面调整其开发重点。建筑协会决定住房政策的日子该结束了。华盛顿方面在改进灾害响应方面做得不错。它现在必须把防灾当作全国性的优先事项。