中国接过金融全球化接力棒
全球银行业版图正在发生一场重大变化，欧美银行开始更关注国内活动，而中国等发展中国家的同行开始向海外扩张。
Global cross-border capital flows have declined 65 per cent since 2007, and half of that is explained by a drop in cross-border lending flows. The largest global European banks, and some US ones too, are in retreat from foreign markets. But financial globalisation is far from finished — rather it is broadening and becoming more inclusive as developing economies, most notably China, step into the breach.
自2007年以来，全球跨境资本流动减少了65%，其中半数是由跨境贷款额下降造成的。欧洲各大银行以及部分美国银行也在从外国市场撤退。但金融全球化远远没有告终——相反，它正在拓宽广度，变得更具包容性，发展中经济体——尤其是中国——正在填补空缺。
The eurozone has been at the forefront of the retreat from foreign markets among banks in advanced economies. The foreign claims of eurozone banks have fallen by $7.2tn, or 45 per cent, since 2007, and nearly half of that has been claims on other borrowers in the eurozone — particularly other banks, new MGI research finds. UK and Swiss banks have sharply reduced foreign assets since the crisis as well. US banks, which have always been less global than their European counterparts, have re-focused on growth at home.
在从外国市场撤退的发达经济体银行中，欧元区走在了前面。麦肯锡全球研究院(MGI)的最新研究发现，自2007年以来，欧元区银行持有的外国债权已减少了7.2万亿美元(减幅为45%)，其中近一半是对欧元区其他借款方(尤其是其他银行)的债权。自危机以来，英国和瑞士的银行也大幅减持了外国资产。全球化程度一直不如欧洲同行的美国银行，开始重新关注国内业务的增长。
In contrast, China’s four largest commercial banks have seen their foreign assets grow 12-fold since 2007 to more than $1tn. And that’s still only 9 per cent of their total assets. Foreign assets make up 20 per cent or more of the total assets in the largest banks in all advanced economies; if China’s largest banks follow that path, they could see tremendous growth in foreign lending ahead.
相比之下，自2007年以来，中国四大商业银行所持的外国资产增加了11倍，至逾1万亿美元。而这仍只相当于其总资产的9%。对于所有发达经济体的各大银行，外国资产占总资产的比例为20%。如果中国大银行走上跟发达经济体同行类似的道路，它们未来的海外放贷将出现极大增长。
Most of China’s foreign lending to date has accompanied Chinese corporate investments abroad. Banks have stepped in to finance green field new investments, purchases of foreign businesses, and to build the infrastructure to make those investments work. From 2005 to 2016, Chinese foreign direct investment abroad increased more than tenfold, to $1.4tn. Some $32bn has been invested in Africa, where China is currently the fourth-largest but fastest-growing source of FDI. An estimated 10,000 Chinese companies have set up shop in Africa, according to McKinsey. In 2016, China passed a new threshold: its foreign direct investment, lending, and portfolio investment assets now exceed its massive central bank reserve assets, at $3.4tn and $3.2tn, respectively.
迄今，中国的大部分对外贷款一直与中国企业对外投资相伴而行。银行介入的目的是资助新的绿地投资项目，收购海外企业，以及建造基础设施以使那些投资项目运转起来。从2005年至2016年，中国对海外的直接投资增加了逾9倍，至1.4万亿美元。大约320亿美元投向了非洲。目前，中国是非洲地区规模第4大、但增速最快的外国直接投资(FDI)来源国。麦肯锡数据显示，大约1万家中国企业已在非洲开办了业务。2016年，中国跨过了一个新门槛：对外直接投资、贷款和组合投资资产如今已达3.4万亿美元，超过了3.2万亿美元的庞大央行储备资产。
But whether China’s foreign lending and investment will prove to be profitable and sustainable remains to be seen. China’s domestic credit has grown at double-digit rates for the last decade, with debt of households, corporations and government entities increasing fivefold. New reports suggest that non-performing loans are rising. Even without sparking a financial crisis, this could create a wave of losses that hit their balance sheets and slow growth abroad. Indeed, many of the large global European and US banks now in retreat found that the margins and profits on their foreign business were lower than returns on their domestic business.
但是，中国的对外贷款和投资会不会盈利并且可持续，仍是一个需拭目以待的问题。过去10年，中国的国内信贷一直在以两位数的速度增长，家庭、企业和政府实体的总债务增加了4倍。最新报告似乎表明，不良贷款开始增多。即便不会触发金融危机，这也可能造成一波亏损，伤及银行的资产负债表并放缓在国外的增长。的确，目前在撤退的许多欧美大型全球性银行发现，其外国业务的利润率和利润低于国内业务。
Beyond banks, China also has formidable players in the next wave of disruption now hitting global finance: digitisation. The value of China’s mobile payments related to consumption by individuals, for instance, was $790bn in 2016, 11 times that of the US. Fintech peer-to-peer (P2P) start-ups, many of them operating across borders, are proliferating. China’s biggest P2P lending and microfinance platform CreditEase in 2016 had plans to buy loan portfolios from two leading US online lenders. New players can build positions extremely quickly. Alibaba built a loan portfolio of $16bn in less than three years, becoming China’s largest seller of money-market funds in just seven months.
除了银行，在数字化这一冲击全球金融的下一波颠覆浪潮中，中国也涌现出令人敬畏的企业。比如说，2016年中国与个人消费相关的移动支付总额达到了7900亿美元，为美国的11倍。金融科技类的个人对个人(P2P)初创企业——许多这类公司在跨境经营——在大量涌现。2016年，中国最大的P2P放贷和小额贷款平台宜信(CreditEase)曾有过向美国两家主要在线贷款机构购买贷款组合的计划。新进入者可以非常快地占据一席之地。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)不到3年便建立起160亿美元的贷款组合，仅用7个月就成了中国最大的货币市场基金销售方。
Advanced economies still hold the lion’s share of the global stock of foreign investments, at 85 per cent. But developing economies are making inroads. Their share of total foreign investment assets has risen from 8 per cent to 14 per cent over the past 10 years. On the McKinsey Global Institute’s new Financial Connectedness Ranking, China rose from 16th place in 2005 to eighth in 2015. Apart from China, no developing economy as yet has made foreign investments that exceed 1 per cent of the global total stock.
发达经济体在全球对外投资量中仍占主导地位，目前份额为85%。但是，发展中国家开始取得进步。过去10年，发展中国家在对外投资资产总量中的份额从8%上升至14%。在麦肯锡全球研究院最新的金融连通性指数金融连通性排名(Financial Connectedness Ranking)中，中国从2005年的第16位上升至2015年的第8位。除中国之外，目前还没有任何一个发展中经济体占全球对外投资总量的比例超过1%。
China’s rise in global finance looks set to continue. Regulators continue to ease restrictions on investing abroad and open the door to foreign investors. The number of qualified foreign institutional investors approved to participate in local stock and bond markets has grown ten-fold since 2005, to more than 300. In July 2017, the Chinese government launched its Bond Connect programme enabling foreign fund managers to buy and sell China’s $9tn of government, agency and corporate bonds without setting up an onshore account. The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has established swap lines with other 30 other countries since the crisis, totalling nearly $500bn in value, that can be drawn on to settle trade and other payments and promote financial stability. Call it “monetary diplomacy”.
中国在全球金融领域的崛起看来会延续下去。监管层继续放宽对投资海外的限制，并对海外投资者打开大门。自2005年以来，获准参与国内股市和债市的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)的数量增加了9倍，至逾300家。2017年7月，中国政府启动了债券通(Bond Connect)机制，使得海外基金管理公司不必先设立境内账户，就可以在中国9万亿美元的政府、机构和公司债券市场上进行交易。另一方面，自金融危机以来，中国央行(PBoC)已与30多个国家建立了价值近5000亿美元的货币互换额度，可以用来结算贸易和其他支付项目，提升金融稳定性。不妨称之为“货币外交”。
Ten years on from the global financial crisis, there are indications that global finance is becoming more inclusive. Developing countries are becoming more prominent cross-border players, and the inexorable spread of digitised finance can only reinforce that trend. We must hope that China’s increasing prominence in global finance does not create global spillovers for countries least prepared to deal with them if its domestic debt challenges end badly. In this ever more connected financial system, a Chinese crisis could all too easily turn into a global crisis.
全球金融危机过去10年了，眼下有迹象表明，全球金融正变得更具包容性。发展中国家变成更重要的跨境玩家，数字金融不可阻挡地普及，只会强化这一趋势。我们只能企盼，如果中国国内的债务挑战变得不可收拾的话，中国在全球金融中日益吃重的地位，不致给那些准备最不充分的国家带来全球溢出效应。在连通性日益提高的金融体系中，中国的一场危机可能很容易演变成一场全球危机。
Susan Lund is a partner with the McKinsey Global Institute based in Washington, DC. Jonathan Woetzel is a McKinsey senior partner and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute based in Shanghai
苏珊•伦德(Susan Lund)为驻美国华盛顿特区的麦肯锡全球研究院(MGI)合伙人。华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)为麦肯锡(McKinsey)高级合伙人、驻上海的麦肯锡全球研究院院长
