微信用户接近10亿但增速趋缓

WeChat, China’s most popularsocial media app, is fast approaching 1bn users — but analysts say growth is likely to taper sharply as the company strives to deliver on global ambitions.

中国最受欢迎的社交媒体应用微信(WeChat)的用户数量正快速接近10亿，但分析师们表示，随着该公司努力实现全球雄心，其增速可能会大幅放缓。

Numbers released this month as part of quarterlyearnings from parent Tencent showed that WeChat — which is called Weixin in China — had 963m monthly active users (MAUs) by the end of June. That was up 19.5 per cent year-on-year and 2.7 per cent on a quarterly basis, but the annual rate was a deceleration from 28 per cent at the end of 2016.

腾讯(Tencent)季度盈利报告公布的数据显示，截至6月底，微信月活跃用户为9.63亿，同比增长19.5%，较前一季度增长2.7%。但年度增速较2016年底的28%有所下滑。China Channel创始人马修•布伦南(Matthew Brennan)表示：“这说明，它现在确实在触顶。我认为，它将达到10亿，但不会超过太多。”自2011年微信问世以来，他一直在跟踪微信的发展。

“That shows you it’s really topping out now. I think it will hit 1bn but not much beyond that,” said Matthew Brennan, founder of China Channel, who has been following WeChat since its launch in 2011.

弘亚世代(Pacific Epoch)分析师Canaan Guo预测，未来3到5年，年度复合增速将达到4%，他还预测，微信的国内市场最终将涵盖中国几乎全部14亿人口，不过，他补充称，这可能需要20年或更长时间。

Canaan Guo, analyst at Pacific Epoch, projects a compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent over the next three to five years and forecasts that WeChat’s domestic market ultimately will comprise virtually the entire 1.4bn Chinese population — though it could take 20 years or more to get there, he adds.

“微信现在的情况是……他们在很多方面处于守势，”布伦南表示，“因为这个平台已非常成熟，容易摘取的果实已不多。”

“WeChat is in a space where . . . they are in many ways on the defensive,” said Mr Brennan. “Because the platform is very mature they have run out of low-hanging fruit.”

腾讯最初的即时通信平台QQ的用户数量已开始减少。在最新季度，QQ的月活跃用户减少5.4%，至8.50亿，而前一季度减少了2.2%。

Tencent’s QQ, the Chinese internet company’s original instant messaging platform, has already begun.

一些分析师将此归咎于QQ的较年轻用户转向微信，这与西方的趋势相反，在西方，年轻人正从Facebook转向其照片分享应用Instagram和Snap的Snapchat，这两款应用对较年轻用户更具吸引力。