美日关系中潜藏着安倍下台的种子

Japanese citizens in areas of Hokkaido woke up to an alert early on Tuesday morning as a North Korean rocket flew over Japan for the third time since 1998. Donald Trump was quick to affirm in a call to Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, that America stands behind the country “100 per cent” — an echo of the US president’s words spoken six months earlier at Mar-a-Lago in response to an earlier missile launch.

周二一大早，北海道地区居民被警报声唤醒，那是自1998年以来，朝鲜导弹第三次飞越日本上空。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)很快给日本首相安倍晋三打电话确认，美国“100%”支持日本——6个月前特朗普在海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago)回应更早一次朝鲜导弹试射时也是这样表态的。

Undoubtedly, Japanese fears over their national security have heightened this week. In the US, however, the missile launch could be seen as a warm-up for Pyongyang’s threatened attack on Guam. And the unified front of Mr Trump and Mr Abe masks signs of a gap opening up between the US and Japan in how they perceive the threat from North Korea. Pyongyang insulted Japan, and looked to drive a wedge into US-Japanese solidarity by reminding Tokyo that Mr Trump’s declaration that “all options are on the table” only applies to a direct attack on the US.

毫无疑问，日本围绕国家安全的恐惧在本周加深了。但在美国，这次导弹试射可能被视为朝鲜威胁对关岛发起的袭击的一次热身。特朗普和安倍晋三的统一战线，掩盖了美日两国就如何看待朝鲜威胁出现分歧的迹象。朝鲜侮辱了日本，还意图通过提醒日本，特朗普所谓“所有选项都在考虑范围内”的声明仅仅适用于美国遭到直接攻击的情况，来离间美日关系。

Mr Trump’s strategy is to step up the pressure by pinning responsibility on China. Reinforced sanctions were seen as a possible game changer for China’s business-as-usual approach. Voices in the Abe administration are not wholly negative about Mr Trump’s pressure tactics, making a complimentary comparison with his predecessor — “if this was President Obama, this would never have happened”.

特朗普的战略是，通过要求中国承担起责任来加大施压力度。加强制裁曾经被视为可能改变中国“一切照旧”态度的一种手段。安倍政府内部对特朗普施压策略的评价并非完全负面，在特朗普与他的前任两人之中，他们更青睐前者——“如果由奥巴马总统来处理，连这都不可能发生”。

Initially, Mr Abe’s shoring up of the alliance with the US through golf was seen as a masterstroke of diplomacy. His popularity had been suffering domestically — although he has recovered some standing via an oft-employed tactic of shifting to the centre, and even apologetically taking a rest from his much-loved golf.

安倍通过打高尔夫球强化日美联盟，最初被视为一种外交高招。他在国内的支持率此前一直低迷——不过，他通过一种“回归中间”的常用策略、甚至抱歉地放下他挚爱的高尔夫球，使个人声望得到了一定程度的恢复。

But there is plenty of reason to suspect US-Japan relations could contain the seeds of Mr Abe’s downfall. The menace posed by Mr Trump extends beyond East Asian security to Japan’s trade and regional policy: both could wound Mr Abe more deeply even than another scandal.

但是，我们有充分理由推断，美日关系中可能包含着导致安倍晋三下台的种子。特朗普构成的威胁超出了东亚安全领域，延伸至日本的贸易与地区政策：这两者都可能对安倍晋三造成比又一场丑闻要严重得多的伤害。

Japan’s ambitious trade policy is a vital part of national strategy. After US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan has taken the lead on reaching a deal with other TPP members, as well as achieving a broad agreement on a Japan-EU “cars for cheese” free trade partnership. These vital contributions by Japan to support rules-based free trade, integral to the liberal international order, represent a rare moment of international leadership.

日本雄心勃勃的贸易政策是国家战略的一个至关重要的组成部分。在美国撤出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP)之后，日本开始牵头其他TPP成员国达成一项协议，并试图就日欧自由贸易伙伴关系达成一项广泛的“汽车换奶酪”协议。日本在支持基于规则的自由贸易——这是自由国际秩序的不可或缺的一部分——方面的这些重要贡献，是日本表现出国际领导力的为数不多的时刻。

Mr Trump poses multiple threats to the success of these Japanese-led initiatives. First, the entanglement of economics and national security in Mr Trump’s approach to China make the possibility of a trade war real.

特朗普对这些日本牵头的计划能否成功构成了多重威胁。第一，在特朗普的对华政策中，经济与国家安全纠缠在一起，使爆发贸易战的可能性变得切实起来。

Second, US attempts to form bilateral free-trade deals with other Asian countries could create barriers for drawing them into high-standard multilateral agreements. The Trump administration is demanding a free-trade agreement with Japan in the hope of establishing the dominance of bilaterally managed trade. If Tokyo is forced to make more concessions in US-Japan trade negotiations than it did in TPP talks, then concluding the latter would become considerably more difficult.

第二，美国与其他亚洲国家达成双边自由贸易协议的努力，可能对日本把它们拉入高标准的多边协议构成障碍。特朗普政府正要求与日本签订一份自由贸易协议，希望确立双边贸易协议的主导地位。如果日本政府被迫在美日贸易谈判中做出比TPP谈判中更大的让步，那么完成TPP谈判的难度将会增加很多。

The philosophical gap in the approach of both nations to trade is exemplified in sectoral discussions, which Japan wants to view through the lens of regional rules.

日美两国在贸易方式上的理念差距在行业谈判中得到体现。日本想要从地区规则的角度看待这些谈判。

More broadly, the US retreat from the region is a chance for Japan to create its own foreign policy independent of America. Sticking with the liberal international order is its long-term strategy.

从更广视角来看，美国从亚太撤退，为日本打造独立于美国的自主外交政策提供了一个机遇。坚持维护自由的国际秩序符合日本的长期战略。

But here lies a third major risk to Mr Abe’s agenda. Sudden US disengagement weakens Japan’s position and leverage in Asia. Regional diplomacy will be considerably tougher for Mr Abe.

但是，安倍晋三的议程面临第三个重大风险。美国的突然撤退弱化了日本在亚洲的地位和影响力。安倍晋三将在地区外交中面临更大困难。

When Mr Trump visits Asia in November for three summits, he will be sure to have meetings with Mr Abe. It is a huge opportunity for the US to develop a strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific region. But if all Mr Trump does is extol the spoils from the forthcoming talks between Japanese deputy prime minister Taro Aso and US vice-president Mike Pence, such as Japanese purchases of liquid natural gas, there will be stinging legitimacy to the question of what Mr Abe’s thus far pragmatic courting of the president is ultimately for.

当特朗普在11月到访亚洲参加三场峰会时，他肯定将与安倍晋三举行会谈。对美国而言，这是为亚太地区描绘一幅战略性愿景的重大机遇。但如果特朗普所做的一切就是称赞即将举行的日本副首相麻生太郎和美国副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)之间谈判的成果(比如日本向美国购买液化天然气)，那么人们将有充分理由问这样一个问题：安倍晋三一直基于务实态度对特朗普大献殷勤究竟是为了什么?

Historically, relations with the US have been a deadly issue for Japanese prime ministers. The prime example is 1971, when the Japanese government was informed about Richard Nixon’s trip to China just three minutes before it was made public, and when Nixon introduced the cheap dollar by ending its convertibility to gold. Failure to manage the alliance damaged irreparably public faith in then prime minister Eisaku Sato. While history will not repeat itself exactly, Mr Abe could start to worry about falling victim to the same lethal unpredictability that ended his great uncle’s political career.

从历史上看，日美关系对日本首相历来是个致命问题。最典型的例子发生在1971年。那一年，日本政府在理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)访华消息对外公布3分钟之前，才被告知此事;也是在那一年，尼克松宣布终止以美元兑换黄金，推出了弱美元政策。在管理日美联盟关系方面的失败，不可挽回地损害了公众对日本时任首相佐藤荣作的信任。尽管历史不会丝毫不差地重演，但安倍晋三可能会开始担心，致命不测事件会让自己遭殃——同样的致命不测事件曾终结他的外叔祖父佐藤的政治生涯。