FT社评：亚洲应携手应对朝鲜威胁
对于朝鲜具有挑衅性的导弹试射，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在Twitter上的最新回应是“对话不是办法”。特朗普的言论(与他之前威胁要发出“火与怒”一样)将再次引发外界担忧：美国正考虑对朝鲜政权发动先发制人的军事打击。
The exchange of threats between Washington and Pyongyang can create the impression that this is a personal duel between Mr Trump and Kim Jong Un. But if the crisis on the Korean peninsula is to be de-escalated then the major regional powers — above all, South Korea, Japan and China — have a crucial role to play. That makes it vital that they rise above their mutual antagonisms and fashion a co-ordinated approach to a common problem.
华盛顿与平壤之间的互相威胁可能会给人这样一种印象：这是特朗普与金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的私人争斗。但若要缓和朝鲜半岛危机，该地区的主要大国(最重要的是韩国、日本和中国)必须发挥关键作用。因此重要的是，他们要放弃相互对抗，并制定协调应对方案来解决这个共同的问题。
Despite the increasing urgency of the crisis, North Korea’s neighbours have tended to see the threat from the Kim regime through the prism of other priorities. In recent times, South Korea has been consumed by a domestic political crisis. Demands for apologies for Japan’s wartime conduct have also been a subject of bitter domestic controversy, making it harder for Seoul and Tokyo to work together on North Korea.
尽管危机变得日益紧迫，但朝鲜的邻国往往从其他优先任务的角度来看待朝鲜威胁。最近，韩国陷入国内政治危机。要求日本就战时恶行道歉也是国内热议话题，这加大了韩国和日本就朝鲜问题合作的难度。
The Japanese government has, until very recently, been more preoccupied by the risks from a rising China than the dangers of the Kim regime. As for China itself, it has been far more exercised by the threat of Thaad — an anti-missile system that the US has installed in South Korea — than by the North Korean menace that Thaad is meant to guard against.
直到最近，日本政府更在意的也是中国崛起带来的风险，而不是金氏政权的危险。至于中国，比起操心朝鲜带来的威胁，中国更担忧的是萨德(Thaad)的威胁，而美国在韩国部署这种反导系统就是为了防御朝鲜威胁。
All of these concerns will seem absurdly myopic, if the North Korean crisis spills over into war. Mr Kim is much more of a threat to his Asian neighbours than he is to the US. Japan and South Korea are already well within range of his missiles. And while China is an ally of North Korea, conflict on the Korean peninsula could threaten China with flows of refugees and, in the worst case, with nuclear fallout.
如果朝鲜危机扩大为战争，那么所有这些担忧就会显得非常短视。金正恩给亚洲邻国带来的威胁要远大于他对美国的威胁。日本和韩国已在朝鲜导弹的射程范围之内。中国虽说是朝鲜盟友，但朝鲜半岛若爆发冲突可能会有大量难民流入中国，最糟糕的是中国可能会遭受核辐射。
If the governments in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul accept that they face a common threat, then there may be room for an imaginative regional diplomatic initiative. Even if sending joint envoys to Pyongyang proves impossible in the current circumstances, the three countries could state their joint interest in the de-nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula — and their willingness to work together towards that end.
如果中国、日本和韩国政府承认三国面临共同威胁，那么还有提出一份具有想象力的地区外交倡议的空间。即便事实证明在当前局势下不可能向平壤派出联合特使，这三个国家也能宣称它们在朝鲜半岛无核化上有共同利益，而且也愿意为此携手努力。
But it is also important to be realistic. The Kim regime currently shows little interest in diplomacy, or in responding to the tentative efforts at rapprochement from the new South Korean government.
但抱着现实的态度同样重要。金家政权目前没有表现出外交解决的意愿，也不愿回应韩国新一届政府试探性的和解努力。
For the moment, therefore, the most important tasks remain deterrence and containment. Even here, there is room for greater regional co-operation. China’s concerns that Thaad might have implications for its own nuclear deterrent would be understandable in a normal security context. But given the acuteness of the threat faced by South Korea, China should now take a more tolerant attitude. In return, both Washington and Seoul could offer reassurances that Thaad will be withdrawn if and when the North Korean threat diminishes. The prospect of Japan acquiring more potent anti-missile systems will also alarm China. But, given the current emergency, Beijing and Tokyo need to reach an understanding.
因此，就目前而言，最重要的任务依然是威慑和遏制。即便这样也有加强地区合作的空间。中国担心，萨德可能影响到其自身的核威慑，这在正常的安全背景下是可以理解的。但鉴于韩国面临的严峻威胁，中国现在应该持更加容忍的态度。相应地，华盛顿和首尔可以做出表态，如果朝鲜威胁解除就会撤回萨德。日本获得更强大反导系统的前景也会让中国警惕。但鉴于当前紧急局势，中国和日本政府需要达成谅解。
Finally, there is the Trump question. There is no doubt that even America’s key allies have grave doubts about the judgment of the US president. That makes it all the more important that the major Asian powers take the initiative on the North Korean crisis.
最后还有特朗普的问题。毫无疑问，即便是美国的关键盟友也严重怀疑特朗普的判断。这让亚洲主要国家在朝鲜危机上采取主动变得更加重要。
