东欧国家担心俄军演成为“特洛伊木马”

They are still more than two weeks away, but Russia’s Zapad 2017 war games — potentially the country’s largest European exercises since the cold war — are creating jitters across eastern Europe.

虽然距今还有两周多时间，但俄罗斯“西方2017”(Zapad 2017，Zapad在俄语中是“西方”的意思)军事演习——可能是该国自冷战以来在欧洲举行的最大规模演习——正在东欧地区制造紧张情绪。

For seven days from September 14, Russia will conduct large-scale military manoeuvres spanning western Russia, its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and its ally Belarus — which borders three Nato members, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

自9月14日起的一周时间，俄罗斯将在俄罗斯西部、其位于波罗的海旁的飞地加里宁格勒州以及盟国白俄罗斯(与波兰、拉脱维亚和立陶宛这三个北约(NATO)成员国相邻)举行大规模军事演习。

While Moscow claims fewer than 13,000 troops will take part in Zapad 2017, western capitals expect the number could reach six figures.

尽管莫斯科方面声称将有不到1.3万名士兵参加“西方2017”军演，但西方国家预计参演人数可能达到六位数。

Concerns are understandable. The exercises are taking place with east-west relations at their most strained since the fall of the Berlin Wall almost three decades ago and shortly after the US imposed new sanctions over Moscow’s alleged interference in its presidential election.

西方的担忧是可以理解的。此次演习举行之际，正值东西方关系处于自将近30年前柏林墙倒塌以来最为紧张的时刻，而且不久前美国刚就莫斯科方面涉嫌干涉美国总统大选一事采取了新制裁。

Russia has also used drills in the past as cover for real military action. A “snap” exercise in 2014 masked the launch of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

过去俄罗斯也曾利用军演为真正的军事行动作掩护。2014年，莫斯科方面以一次“临时”演习为掩护，发起了吞并克里米亚的行动。

The head of Ukraine’s national security council said last week it was “not excluded” that Russia could use Zapad 2017 to create strike forces for the “military invasion” of Ukraine. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, the three former Soviet Baltic republics, have voiced similar fears.

乌克兰国家安全委员会负责人上周表示，“无法排除”俄罗斯利用“西方2017”演习来创造“军事入侵”乌克兰的打击部队的可能性。曾为苏联加盟共和国的波罗的海三国拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛表达了类似担忧。

Ben Hodges, the commanding general of the US army in Europe, has warned the exercise could be a “Trojan horse” to bring Russian soldiers and weapons into Belarus and leave them there. “They say, ‘we’re just doing an exercise’, and then all of a sudden they’ve moved all these people and capabilities somewhere,” he said.

美军在欧洲的最高指挥官本•霍奇斯(Ben Hodges)警告称，此次演习可能是一个把俄罗斯士兵和武器带入并留在白俄罗斯的“特洛伊木马”(Trojan horse)。他表示，“他们说，‘我们只是在演习’，突然间他们就把所有人和军事力量都带到某个地方了。”

Russia dismisses such fears. Grigory Karasin, its deputy foreign minister, countered that “artificial buffoonery over the routine Zapad 2017 exercises is aimed at justifying the sharp intensification of the Nato bloc” along Russia’s borders.

俄罗斯驳斥了此类担忧。俄罗斯副外长格里戈里•卡拉辛(Grigory Karasin)反驳称，“围绕例行军演‘西方2017’的夸张表演旨在证明(俄罗斯边境沿线)北约区域的高度紧张有合理性”。

Based on preparations to date, western officials estimate the exercises will involve nearer 100,000 military personnel rather than the 12,700, as well as 680 pieces of equipment, that Moscow says will be deployed.

根据目前的筹备来看，西方官员预计此次军演将涉及将近10万军事人员、而非莫斯科方面声称的1.27万，此外还将部署680套装备。

Zapad, which means “west” and refers to Russia’s western military district, is part of a four-year cycle of exercises that rotate through its eastern, central and Caucasus as well as western districts. “Zapad”

(西方)指的是俄罗斯西部军区，俄罗斯每年轮流在俄东部、中央、高加索以及西部军区举行军演，每四年完成一轮，“Zapad”军演就是其中一部分。

Alexander Golts, an independent Russian military analyst, says previous exercises in this cycle have all deployed 100,000 or more personnel, while Zapad’s geographical scope suggests a “huge concentration of troops”.

俄罗斯独立军事分析师亚历山大•戈尔茨(Alexander Golts)表示，之前的“西方”例行演习全都部署了10万人或以上的军事人员，而该演习的地域范围意味着这是“兵力的高度集中”。

Russia’s general staff are “geniuses” at manipulating an international agreement obliging it to invite European observers to any exercise involving more than 13,000, by holding multiple supposedly separate drills concurrently, he says.

他表示，一项国际协议规定，俄罗斯必须邀请西方观察人士观摩所有涉及1.3万人以上的演习活动，而俄罗斯总参谋部是投机取巧、规避这一协议的“天才”——他们于是就同时举行多场所谓的单独演习。

Keir Giles, an associate fellow at the UK’s Chatham House think-tank, says: “Put those things together and there are strong grounds for believing this is likely to be a much larger event than the Russian official figures”.

智库机构英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)副研究员基尔•贾尔斯(Keir Giles)表示：“把这些事放在一起来看，有充分理由相信此次演习的规模可能比俄罗斯官方数据显示的大得多。

The manoeuvres are clearly designed to send a strong message to Nato, which has strengthened its eastern flank since the 2014 Ukraine crisis by siting four multinational battle groups in Poland and the Baltics.

此次军演明显是为了向北约传达强有力的信息。自2014年乌克兰危机以来，北约通过在波兰和波罗的海三国部署四个多国战斗群，强化了其东翼力量。

But despite the nervousness among Russia’s neighbours, there is less reason to believe the drills could be cover for an attack, say analysts.

但分析人士表示，尽管俄罗斯各邻国情绪紧张，但没有太多理由认为此次军演可能会为军事袭击作掩护。

Unlike in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia days after completing exercises in its Caucasus district, there has been no sign of Moscow laying the political and propaganda groundwork for military action this time.

此次军演不同于2008年——当时俄罗斯在高加索地区军演完成几天后入侵了格鲁吉亚——目前莫斯科方面这次没有为军事行动作政治和宣传铺垫的迹象。

“The political message delivered by . . . these military drills is ‘hands off’ Russian interests’,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a Kremlin advisory group. “But there is absolutely no willingness to escalate anything.”

“此次军演传达的政治信息……是‘别碰’俄罗斯的利益，”俄罗斯外交与防务政策委员会(Council on Foreign and Defence Policy)主席费奥多尔•卢基扬诺夫(Fyodor Lukyanov)表示，“但绝对没有让事态升级的意愿。”该委员会为克里姆林宫提供咨询。

Moscow’s mood is “confusion” and “wait-and-see” after the Trump administration confounded its hopes of a sharp improvement in US-Russian relations, says Mr Lukyanov.

卢基扬诺夫表示，在特朗普(Trump)政府让俄罗斯极大改善俄美关系的希望落空之后，莫斯科方面现在的情绪是“困惑”和“观望”。

Even leaving equipment in Belarus would need the agreement of Alexander Lukashenko, its autocratic president. But Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, says Mr Lukashenko is anxious not to make Belarus a target for the west and has resisted pressure in the past to host Russian military infrastructure.

甚至，连把装备留在白俄罗斯都需要得到其专制的总统亚历山大•卢卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)的同意。兰德公司(Rand Corporation)资深政治学家塞缪尔•查拉普(Samuel Charap)表示，卢卡申科不想让白俄罗斯成为西方的靶子，并且过去一直顶住压力、拒绝俄罗斯在白俄罗斯部署军事设施。

“It takes preparation to permanently base forces in another country. Are they just going to stay in tents?” says Mr Charap.

查拉普称：“在另一个国家永久驻扎部队需要作一些准备。他们难道会一直住在帐篷里吗?”

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, criticised both Moscow and Minsk on Friday for failing to meet international commitments to make the exercises transparent.

上周五，北约秘书长延斯•斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg)批评莫斯科和明斯克方面没有履行对国际社会的承诺，即实现军演透明化。

But Belarus says it has invited Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Norway, plus organisations including the UN and Nato, to send observers. Minsk itself may be aiming to ensure Russia does not try anything unexpected, say analysts.

但白俄罗斯表示，它已邀请乌克兰、波兰、波罗的海三国、瑞典和挪威这几个国家，以及包括联合国(UN)和北约在内的多个组织派观察员来观摩此次军演。分析人士表示，明斯克方面本身的目的可能是确保俄罗斯不做出意外举动。

Whether or not they are invited to observe, western governments and militaries will be closely studying the drills, which come after a decade of Russian military reform and investment following its erratic 2008 Georgian campaign, and amid its operations in Ukraine and Syria.

无论是否受邀派出观察员，西方政府和军队都将密切研究此次军演——在2008年不按规矩出牌的格鲁吉亚行动后，俄罗斯进行了10年的军事改革和投资，而且此次军演正值俄罗斯在乌克兰和叙利亚展开军事行动。

Moscow’s new “information operations” troops, responsible for cyber warfare and “psy ops”, are expected to take part, as well as the powerful First Guards Tank Army, a second world war and cold war vanguard disbanded in 1998 but reformed in 2014.

莫斯科方面负责网络战和心理战的新“信息作战”部队预计将参加此次军演，强大的“第1近卫坦克集团军”(First Guards Tank Army)——二战和冷战时期的先头部队，于1988年解散但在2014年重新组建——预计也将参演。

“We’re seeing the Russian military on display in a way that you don’t often see it,” says Mr Charap, “and seeing how they think about contingencies and about potential conflict . . . with Nato.”

“我们将看到俄军以难得一见的阵容进行展示，”查拉普表示，“并且将看到他们就与北约之间的……突发事件和潜在冲突有何考虑。”