中国对基础设施建设的依赖程度创历史新高

China’s reliance on infrastructure to drive overall investment hit a new high last month, raising worries that Beijing’s intensifying crackdown on local government debt, which mainly finances infrastructure, will drag down overall growth.

中国依靠基础设施来推动整体投资的程度上月达到新高，令人担心北京加紧打压地方政府举债的努力将拖累整体增长;中国的地方政府债务主要用作基建资金。

Fixed-asset investment remains the biggest engine of China’s economy and also fuels global demand for commodities such as coal, steel and base metals. Fixed investment contributed 45 per cent to China’s GDP last year, by far the highest share of any major economy. The US share is 22 per cent, while Japan’s is 30 per cent.

固定资产投资仍然是中国经济的最大发动机，还推动着煤炭、钢铁和基础金属等大宗商品的全球需求。固定资产投资去年占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的45%，在大型经济体中遥遥领先地占据首位。美国的这一比重是22%，日本是30%。

The infrastructure share of overall fixed-asset investment hit 21.4 per cent in the year to July, the highest on record, according to FT calculations of official data. That compares with 17.7 per cent for real estate.

根据英国《金融时报》对官方数据进行的计算，在截至7月的一年里，基建在固定资产总投资中的占比达到21.4%，创历史新高。相比之下房地产的占比为17.7%。

“It’s a very important data point. There are so many different ways that local governments finance urban infrastructure. But now there’s a real concern about how they can continue,” said Shen Jianguang, China economist at Mizuho Securities.

“这是一个非常重要的数据点。地方政府有很多不同的方式为城市基础设施融资。但现在对于它们如何能继续下去存在真正的担忧，”瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)中国经济学家沈建光表示。

“I believe we’re headed for another deleveraging cycle like the one in 2010-11. The growth slowdown will probably be sizeable over the next year.”

“我相信我们将进入又一个去杠杆周期，就像2010-11年那样。未来一年的增长放缓程度可能相当大。”

Chinese economic planners have turned more heavily to infrastructure as stimulus since 2015, preferring this approach over further investment in manufacturing, where the initial round of post-2008 stimulus caused a surge of excess capacity.

自2015年以来，中国经济规划者在更大程度上依靠基建作为刺激手段，相比之下不愿进一步投资于制造业;2008年后最初推出的一轮刺激在制造业造成了大量过剩产能。

While working to cut overcapacity in steel, coal and other commodities, investment was channelled into roads, railways and water projects.

在致力于减少钢铁、煤炭等大宗商品过剩产能的同时，投资被导向道路、铁路和水利工程。

“Infrastructure and property have long been the main pillars supporting China’s economy. But property has cyclical ups and downs, so property investment is volatile. Infrastructure is something the government can directly control,” said Xu Gao, chief economist at China Everbright Securities in Beijing.

“基础设施和房地产一直是支撑中国经济的主要支柱。但房地产有周期性的起起伏伏，所以房地产投资是有波动性的。基础设施是政府可以直接控制的东西，”北京的中国光大证券(China Everbright Securities)首席经济学家徐高表示。

But infrastructure stimulus has strained local finances. Local government debt will hit Rmb42tn ($6.3tn) by the end of this year when various forms of off-budget borrowing are included, or 51 per cent of GDP, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

但是，基础设施刺激措施使地方政府财政紧张。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的估计，在计入各种形式的预算外借款后，到今年底地方政府债务将达到42万亿元人民币(合6.3万亿美元)，相当于GDP的51%。

In May, the FT reported on a private World Bank presentation that warned in stark terms of financial risks from mounting debt owed by local governments’ off-budget entities.

5月，英国《金融时报》报道了世界银行(World Bank)的一份保密报告，后者就地方政府的预算外实体越来越多的债务所带来的财务风险发出严重警告。

“Whenever the authorities issue new rules, some clever bankers come along to help local governments find new loopholes,” said the head of infrastructure investment at a large insurer.

“每次当局发布新的规定后，一些脑瓜灵光的银行家就会来帮助地方政府发现新的漏洞，”一家大型保险公司的基础设施投资主管表示。

This year the finance ministry has issued a series of new rules to rein in disguised fiscal borrowing through various complex financing arrangements.

今年中国财政部发布了一系列新规则，以打击通过各种复杂融资安排来伪装的财政借款。

Since 2016, the finance ministry and the National Audit Office have named and shamed eight local governments for irregular borrowing. This month the ministry acknowledged that local governments had used “public-private partnerships” as a form of disguised borrowing.

自2016年以来，中国财政部和国家审计署点名批评8个地方政府进行不正当借款。本月，财政部承认地方政府将公私合作伙伴关系(PPP)当作变相举债的工具。

In May, the finance bureau of Jiangsu, China’s most indebted province, sent an “extra-urgent document” to lower levels ordering them to halt “invisible borrowing”, local media reported.

据当地媒体报道，今年5月，中国负债最重的江苏省的财政厅下发了一份特急文件，要求各地停止隐形借款。

But economists note that the government has the means to widen legitimate channels for local governments to finance infrastructure spending, such as local government bond sales, if they chose to do so.

但经济学家们指出，中央政府有办法拓宽地方政府为基础设施支出融资的合法渠道(如地方政府债券发售)，如果中央政府选择这样做。

“The rules are intended to discourage unqualified local governments from borrowing, but the central government does not intend to cut financing across the board.”

“这些规定是为了遏制不合格的地方政府进行借款，但中央政府并不打算全面削减融资。”

Additional reporting by Nan Ma Nan Ma补充报道

Twitter: @gabewildau 译者/何黎