FT社评：特朗普的阿富汗新战略难以奏效

There is no doubt President Donald Trump inherited a bad hand in Afghanistan. The longest war in US history is probably unwinnable. Russian, and before that British, military history said as much even before George W Bush invaded 16 years ago in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks on US soil.

毫无疑问，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在阿富汗接手了一个烂摊子。这场美国历史上持续时间最长的战争很可能是无法取胜的。即使是在16年前小布什(George W Bush)因美国本土遭遇“9•11”恐怖袭击而入侵阿富汗之前，苏联以及之前英国的征战史就已说明了这一点。

And yet, predictably from the vantage point of the Oval office, Mr Trump has found the consequences of turning tail too grave to contemplate. To do so, as he said in a speech outlining his approach to Afghanistan on Monday, would “create a vacuum that terrorists, including Isis and al-Qaeda, would instantly fill”. It would be to repeat the mistake that the Obama administration made when it withdrew from Iraq prematurely in 2011, allowing Isis to capture territory that US and Iraqi soldiers had lost much blood to gain. From a domestic political perspective that prospect would be as untenable as launching another wholehearted surge.

然而，可以预见的是，坐在椭圆形办公室(Oval office)“制高点”上的特朗普已经发现，从阿富汗撤军的后果将严峻得难以想象。正如他在周一发表阐述对阿政策的演讲时所言，从阿富汗撤军将“制造一个真空，而包括伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)、基地组织(al-Qaeda)在内的恐怖分子将立刻去填补”。这样做将重蹈巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府2011年的覆辙，即过早从伊拉克撤军，以至于让ISIS占领了美国和伊拉克士兵浴血奋战获得的领土。从国内政治角度来看，这一前景与再次大规模增兵一样，在美国国内都得不到支持。

So, having pledged on the campaign trail to end the war in Afghanistan and eschew such foreign entanglements in future, Mr Trump has heeded his generals’ advice and performed an about turn. He did so with harsh warnings for Pakistan, which he accused of harbouring terrorists, conditional love for Afghanistan’s embattled government, and a vague plan to reinforce the 10,000 or so mostly special forces now on active duty to train and assist the Afghan army.

因此，曾在竞选活动中承诺结束阿富汗战争并在未来避免在海外陷入此类纠缠的特朗普，听从了手下将军们的建议，转变了自己的立场。他对巴基斯坦发出了严厉警告，指责后者为恐怖分子提供庇护、有条件地援助处境艰难的阿富汗政府，还提出一项不明确的计划——增兵阿富汗以训练和协助阿富汗军队。阿富汗目前驻有约1万美军士兵，大部分是特种部队。

There is nothing in any of this that changes the terms or strategic circumstances of US involvement in Afghanistan in a significant way. These are all tactics that have been tried, tested and found wanting in the past. Mr Trump, however, framed his plans as undoing Barack Obama’s legacy. Unlike his predecessor he declined to set any timelines for the intervention. Nor would this be about nation building. It would be about killing and defeating terrorists, pure and simple.

增兵根本不可能大幅改善美国介入阿富汗的条件或战略环境。这些策略过去都尝试过，结果发现不太管用。然而，特朗普把他的计划界定为消除奥巴马的遗产。与前任不同的是，特朗普拒绝为军事干预设定任何时间表，而且这种干预也将不涉及国家重建。特朗普的目标纯粹而简单：歼灭并击败恐怖分子。

He is right in one respect: previous deadlines for US withdrawal have only encouraged the Taliban to sit it out. As the generals like to say, “the US has the watches, the Taliban has the time”.

他在一个方面是正确的：美国以前列出的撤军最后期限只起到了鼓励塔利班坚持到底的作用。正如将军们喜欢说的，“美国人有手表，塔利班有时间”。

Mr Trump’s commitment to the long haul, however, came in almost the same breath as an expression of American impatience with this costly, open-ended engagement — a contradiction unlikely to convince US enemies that this is much more than bluster.

然而，特朗普打持久战的承诺差不多也是在表达美国对这一代价高昂、无止境的战争失去耐心——这种矛盾不大可能会让美国的敌人相信这绝不仅仅是恫吓。

Mr Trump calls his strategy “principled realism”. But it is neither realistic — exhortations do not win wars — nor principled. A few thousand extra troops — the figure of 4,000 has been bandied around — and harsh rhetoric about Pakistan will change little on the ground. Worse, an appeal for India to get more involved pours fuel on the very rivalry between South Asia’s nuclear neighbours which has encouraged Islamabad’s duplicitousness in the past. Mr Trump may also find that poking Pakistan in the eye can only push it closer to Beijing.

特朗普把其战略称为“有原则的现实主义”。但它既不现实——规劝不能赢得战争——也无原则。增派数千士兵——传闻是4000人——并严辞指责巴基斯坦，基本改变不了当地的局面。更糟糕的是，呼吁印度更深介入会加剧南亚有核邻国之间的对抗，这在过去已经对巴基斯坦搞两面派起到了鼓励作用。特朗普也许会发现，触怒巴基斯坦只会把它往中国那边推。

The Afghan government controls barely more than half the country. The Taliban is resurgent, Isis has gained a foothold and recently Kabul has been victim to repeated suicide bombings. In the mix civilians are suffering more casualties now than at any point since Mr Obama launched his own shortlived surge in 2009.

阿富汗政府控制着勉强超过一半的国土。塔利班重新兴起，ISIS已有了立足之地，喀布尔近来多次遭到自杀式爆炸袭击。在这种复杂局面下，平民的伤亡数量比2009年奥巴马启动他自己短命的大举增兵后的任何时点都多。

For there to have been any hope of a successful counter insurgency, the US would have had to commit to the long haul and put more boots on the ground to win hearts and minds. Mr Trump has settled for another halfway house, one that maintains US engagement in Afghanistan in a holding pattern that is barely holding.

要想让人对反叛乱的斗争取得成功抱有希望，美国必须致力于打持久战，并派驻更多地面部队去赢得民心。特朗普采取了一种折中做法，这种做法以一种只能勉强维持的维持模式保持美国对阿富汗的介入。