IMF称中国债务水平“危险”
国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二警告，中国经济在未来三年的增长将快于预期，原因是政府不愿遏制“危险”水平的债务。
In an annual review of the world’s second-largest economy, IMF staff said China’s annual economic growth would average 6.4 per cent in 2018-20, compared with a previous estimate of 6 per cent. The IMF is also predicting that the Chinese economy will expand 6.7 per cent this year, up from its earlier forecast of 6.2 per cent growth.
在对世界第二大经济体中国的年度审议中，IMF工作人员表示，2018年至2020年期间中国年度经济增长平均将为6.4%，而之前的估计为6%。IMF还预测，今年中国经济将增长6.7%，快于之前预测的6.2%增速。
The Chinese government, which pledged to double the size of the economy between 2010 and 2020, has tolerated a rapid run-up in debt in order to meet its target. “The [Chinese] authorities will do what it takes to attain the 2020 GDP target,” the IMF said.
承诺在2010年至2020年期间实现经济规模翻番的中国政府，近期容忍债务快速上升以达到这一目标。“中国当局将为实现2020年GDP目标采取一切必要行动，”IMF表示。
As a result, the IMF now expects China’s non-financial sector debt to exceed 290 per cent of GDP by 2022, compared with 235 per cent last year. The fund had previously estimated that debt levels would stabilise at 270 per cent of GDP over the next five years.
其结果是，IMF现在预计，到2022年，中国的非金融部门债务将超过GDP的290%，而去年为235%。该组织此前曾估计，债务水平将在未来五年期间稳定在相当于GDP 270%的水平。
“International experience suggests that China’s current credit trajectory is dangerous with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment,” the IMF said in the strongly worded report.
“国际经验似乎表明，中国目前的信贷轨迹是危险的，出现一场破坏性调整的风险越来越大，”IMF在这份措辞强烈的报告中表示。
Higher debt levels, it added, would reduce Beijing’s “fiscal space” to react to any potential crisis in the interbank market or a “loss of confidence” in wealth management products, sales of which have unpinned the rapid expansion of China’s shadow banking sector.
该组织补充说，更高的债务水平将减少北京方面的“财政空间”，以应对银行间市场的任何潜在危机或人们对理财产品“失去信心”;这类产品的销售支撑了中国影子银行业的快速扩张。
Jin Zhongxia, China’s representative at the IMF, rejected the fund’s warnings. “The stronger performance [of the Chinese economy] since 2017 was not merely driven by policy stimulus but [is] rather a reflection of rebalancing and structural adjustment,” he said in Beijing’s official reply. “The [IMF] staff’s scenario of an abrupt slowdown of the Chinese economy . . . is highly unlikely.”
中国驻IMF执行董事金中夏拒绝了该组织的警告。“进入2017年以来中国经济的较强劲表现不只是由政策刺激推动的，而是反映了再平衡和结构调整，”他在北京方面的官方答复中表示，“IMF工作人员对中国经济突然减速的假定情形……是极不可能发生的。”
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Chinese authorities unleashed a lending spree that more than quadrupled total debt to $28tn at the end of 2016 .
全球金融危机爆发后，中国当局释放了一股信贷洪流，使中国的总债务到2016年底增至原有水平的四倍多，达到28万亿美元。
In its report, the IMF noted that China’s “credit efficiency” had deteriorated sharply over the past decade, with ever larger amounts of money needed to generate the same amount of growth. “In 2008, new credit of about Rmb6.5tn was needed to raise nominal GDP by Rmb5tn,” the fund said. “In 2016 it took Rmb20tn in new credit.”
IMF在其报告中指出，过去10年期间中国的“信贷效率”急剧恶化，需要越来越多的资金来产生同样数量的增长。“2008年时，需要大约6.5万亿元人民币的新增信贷使名义GDP提高5万亿元人民币，”该组织表示，“到了2016年，同样的增长需要20万亿元人民币的新增信贷。”
The IMF added that had the Chinese government not turned on the credit taps, average real GDP growth in the five years to 2016 would have averaged 5.3 per cent rather than 7.3 per cent.
IMF补充说，要不是中国政府打开信贷龙头，截至2016年的五年期间实际GDP平均增长率原本将为5.3%，而不是7.3%。
The fund was also critical of state-owned enterprise reform, noting that large swaths of the economy remain off-limits to private sector companies that nonetheless account for more than 80 per cent of employment and 50 per cent of tax revenues.
该组织对国企改革也持批评态度，指出很多经济部门仍然把私营企业挡在门外，尽管如此，私营企业还是贡献了80%以上的就业和50%的政府税收收入。
“Private sector participation in SOEs remain limited [and] political influence has been institutionalised,” the IMF said, referring to the growing clout of Communist party committees in most SOEs.
“私营部门参与国企仍然有限，而政治影响已经制度化，”IMF表示，该组织提到党委在大多数国企内部的影响力越来越大。
In response, Chinese authorities argued that “institutionalising the Communist party’s leadership within SOEs would help increase [their] efficiency”.
作为回应，中国当局辩称，在国有企业内部把党的领导制度化，将有助于提高这些企业的效率。
