美国对中国失望 转而寄望俄罗斯对朝施压
朝鲜名义上的国家元首金永南(Kim Yong Nam)本月参加伊朗总统就职仪式时曾绕道莫斯科，尽管航班从北京中转要方便得多。
To some observers, the choice of stop-over is emblematic of a North Korean regime that seems increasingly estranged from its Chinese ally over irs nuclear ambitions and more reliant on long-standing ties with Russia. Pyongyang’s shift of attention also creates a potential opening that US diplomats are keep to explore as they search for ways to curb North Korea’s fast-developing nuclear missile programme.
对于一些观察人士而言，转机地的选择标志着朝鲜政权似乎因其核野心越来越与中国盟友疏远，而更依赖与俄罗斯的长期关系。朝鲜转变注意力还创造了一个美国外交人士渴望利用的潜在机会，他们正寻找方法限制朝鲜快速发展的核导弹计划。
“The North Koreans are offended with China, and many of their political contacts are either frozen or seriously narrowed,” said Valery Sukhinin, Russia’s former ambassador to Pyongyang and one of Moscow’s most seasoned Korea hands.
前俄罗斯驻朝鲜大使、俄罗斯经验最丰富的朝鲜问题专家之一瓦列里•苏希宁(Valery Sukhinin)表示：“朝鲜对中国不满，他们之间的很多政治联系要么被冻结，要么被大幅收缩。”
North Korean government officials have made several visits to Russia over the past year and sometimes meet at events in Moscow. Some western observers believe that inside North Korea, contacts between Pyongyang officials and Russian diplomats now surpass those with China.
过去一年，朝鲜政府官员多次出访俄罗斯，有时会在莫斯科的活动上会面。一些西方观察人士认为，在朝鲜内部，朝鲜官员与俄罗斯外交官的接触现在超过了与中国的接触。
The Trump administration has become frustrated with China’s reluctance to use its economic leverage — it accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s trade — to lean on Kim Jong-un even if it backed a new round of UN sanctions earlier this month.
尽管本月早些时候中国支持了联合国(UN)对朝鲜的新一轮制裁，但特朗普(Trump)政府对中国不愿利用经济影响力向金正恩(Kim Jong-un)施压感到失望。中国占朝鲜对外贸易的90%。
Even though relations between the US and Russia are poor, Washington has begun to look to Moscow to carry sway in Pyongyang.
虽然美国与俄罗斯之间的关系不好，但美国已开始寄望于俄罗斯对朝鲜施加影响。
“You can see the US testing Russian access and influence in North Korea,” said a western diplomat. “In March and April [US secretary of state Rex] Tillerson was testing Chinese access and influence and that’s being tested now with Russia”.
“你可以看到，美国正在测试俄罗斯在朝鲜的渠道和影响力，”一位西方外交人士表示，“今年3月和4月，(美国国务卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson))曾测试中国的渠道和影响力，现在是在测试俄罗斯。”
This month, Mr Tillerson spoke of China and Russia in the same breath when he said the pair have “very good, open channels of communication” with Pyongyang.
本月，蒂勒森同时谈到了中国和俄罗斯，他表示，两国与朝鲜有着“非常良好且畅通的沟通渠道”。
“I’m hopeful that they can use their influence — and I think they do have influence with the regime — to bring them to a point of dialogue,” he said.
他表示：“我希望他们可以利用自己的影响力(我认为他们确实对朝鲜政权有影响力)，让他们达到可以对话的水平。”
Moscow has in recent months tried to appear reasonably neutral as tensions rose, warning both sides of the perils of escalating rhetoric. Alongside China, it is pushing for talks based on a simultaneous suspension of North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing and of large joint military exercises by US and South Korean forces.
最近几个月，随着紧张关系升级，俄罗斯试图表现出适度的中立，就言论升级的危险向双方发出警告。俄罗斯正与中国一道，促成以朝鲜暂停核试验和导弹试射、同时美国和韩国军队暂停大规模联合军演为基础的对话。
“The US is waiting to see if there’s a positive response from Pyongyang or if it’s dismissive to see how much leverage Russia has in terms of bringing them to the table,” said the diplomat.
这位外交人士表示：“美国正观望朝鲜是否会做出正面回应，或者朝鲜是否会对俄在把朝鲜带到谈判桌旁来方面所具备的影响力表示不屑。”
But American expectations that Russia could become a key player in mediating the crisis are treated with scepticism in Moscow.
但美国这种对俄罗斯或将在斡旋这场危机中发挥重要作用的预期，在俄罗斯却受到质疑。
Russian experts warn that Moscow’s support, alongside China, for the latest UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea has undermined what little leverage it had left on its former ally.
俄罗斯专家警告称，俄罗斯和中国一起支持联合国安理会对朝鲜的最新制裁，进一步削弱了俄罗斯对这个曾经的盟友所剩无几的影响力。
More than 17 years ago, Russia replaced the Soviet Union’s alliance treaty with North Korea, under which it was required to come to Pyongyang’s support in the event of a military attack, with a friendship treaty without this clause.
苏联曾与朝鲜签订同盟性质的条约，根据条约规定，苏联必须在朝鲜遭受武装攻击的情况下为其提供支持。逾17年前，俄罗斯与朝鲜签订的友好条约去掉了这一条款。
“North Korea had therefore long lowered its expectations towards us. But at least they would not blame or target us in their angry rhetoric,” said Mr Sukhinin. “But in their most recent statements, Russia was criticised by name for the first time — for bowing to the US and supporting Washington.”
苏希宁表示：“朝鲜因此早就降低了对我们的期望。但至少他们不会用愤怒的言辞责备或者针对我们。但在最近的声明中，俄罗斯首次被点名指责，理由是俄罗斯屈从美国并支持华盛顿方面。”
He added that US president Donald Trump’s public expression of thanks to China and Russia for supporting the last UNSC resolution had been particularly unhelpful. “If this continues, they may distance themselves from us, too. They feel isolated, and their response to that is to ratchet up their nuclear programme.”
他补充称，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)公开表示感谢中国和俄罗斯支持最新的联合国安理会决议，这尤其有消极作用。“如果这种状况持续的话，他们可能也会疏远我们。他们感觉受到孤立，他们的回应是加快核武器计划。”
Perhaps most importantly, the Krermlin has a radically different assessment from the US of the stand-off over North Korea’s nuclear programme. “From the Russian government’s point of view, the disruptive power in this crisis is still the US,” said Alexander Gabuev, an Asia expert at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.
或许最重要的是，克里姆林宫对朝鲜核计划僵局的评估与美国截然不同。卡内基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)亚洲问题专家亚历山大•加布耶夫(Alexander Gabuev)表示：“从俄罗斯政府的角度来看，这场危机中的破坏性力量仍是美国。”
Russian officials see North Korea’s obsession with developing nuclear weapons as the understandable attempt of a weak, isolated country to protect itself against a vastly more powerful adversary.
俄罗斯官员认为，朝鲜作为一个受到孤立的弱小国家，痴迷于发展核武器保护自己免受实力强得多的对手的伤害，是可以理解的。
Officially, Moscow refuses to recognise North Korea as a nuclear power, hence its support for UN sanctions. But most Russian foreign policy officials and analysts argue that the only realistic option for defusing the crisis would be a deal granting North Korea the status of a de-facto nuclear power similar to that of India and Pakistan — without formal recognition, but without attempts to disarm it either.
莫斯科的官方立场是拒绝承认朝鲜的核国家地位，因此支持联合国制裁。但大多数俄罗斯外交政策官员和分析人士指出，解除危机的唯一现实选项是签署协议授予朝鲜事实上的核国家地位，与印度和巴基斯坦类似——不正式承认，但也不试图让他们解除核武。
“Instead of chasing an impossible and unachievable goal of a non-nuclear North Korea, the U.S. and other interested parties should quietly switch to a less pleasant, but realistically achievable goal: North Korea with small and stable nuclear arsenal,” Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, wrote in a commentary on the options for resolving the crisis.
韩国国民大学(Kookmin University)的俄罗斯教授安德烈•兰科夫(Andrei Lankov)在一篇关于朝鲜危机解决选项的评论文章中写道：“美国和其他相关各方应该悄然转向不那么令人愉快、但在现实中可行的目标，即拥有小型、稳定核武库的朝鲜，而不是追逐让朝鲜成为无核国家这个不可能且无法实现的目标。”
“North Korea’s goal is to make everyone accept, even if not officially, that it has nuclear weapons now – just like India, Pakistan and Israel. They want to achieve such a status,” said Mr Sukhinin. “We don’t believe that North Korea threatens us or China, but at the same time it is important for us to ensure that this process doesn’t broaden further, that there is no more proliferation.”
苏希宁表示：“朝鲜的目标是让所有人承认(即便不是正式地承认)它现在拥有核武器，就像印度、巴基斯坦和以色列一样。他们想要获得这样的地位。我们认为朝鲜不会威胁到我们或者中国，但同时重要的是，我们要确保这种过程不会进一步扩大，而且也不再有核扩散。”
