美国商界对特朗普的期待还能持续多久？

When Donald Trump won the race for the White House last year, markets rallied. The so-called “Trump trade” rested on the hope that the US president would deliver business friendly reforms that would boost growth. This was a bit of a misnomer: what executives and investors have really been betting on for most of this year is a “Cohn trade”.

去年，当唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得总统大选后，市场大涨。所谓的“特朗普交易”依赖于这种希望：这位美国总统将兑现对企业有利的改革，从而促进经济增长。这有点用词不当：在今年的大多数时间，公司高管和投资者真正押注的是“科恩交易”。

After all, it is now clear that the president has limited ability to focus on the grubby details of economic reform. It is also evident that business issues sit below economic nationalism on the agenda for the likes of Steve Bannon, White House adviser. Just look at Mr Bannon’s comments to The American Prospect magazine this week, in which he argues that America is locked in a zero-sum contest with China.

毕竟，这位总统显然在关注经济改革的复杂细节方面能力有限。同样很明显的是，在白宫首席战略师史蒂夫•班农(Steve Bannon)等人的议程上，商业问题的排序低于经济民族主义(本文中文版发布时班农已离开特朗普政府——译者注)。你只需看看班农最近向《美国前景》(The American Prospect)杂志发表的言论就明白了，他主张，美国陷入了与中国之间的零和竞争。

Yet even as Mr Trump’s behaviour becomes more capricious, executives have continued to hope — or pray — that Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council, would support them. To be sure, the former Goldman Sachs president never displayed any interest in public policy or economic theory before arriving in the White House. His Wall Street rivals tend to view him as an opportunist who plays hard. But Mr Cohn is smart, knows how to execute plans and understands free market incentives; or so went the chatter in the upper echelons of Wall Street.

然而，即便特朗普的行为变得更加反复无常，公司高管继续希望(或者说祈祷)国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主席加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)将支持他们。应该明确的是，这位高盛(Goldman Sachs)前总裁在来到白宫之前从未对公共政策或经济理论表现出兴趣。他在华尔街的竞争对手倾向于把他视为一个用功的机会主义者。但科恩很聪明，他知道如何执行计划，也理解自由市场激励;至少华尔街的上层阶级在闲谈时是这么说的。

He has talked about sensible — achievable — goals, such as reforming air traffic control. He had a team of allies, such as Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary and fellow Goldman alumnus; Elaine Chao, transport secretary; and Dina Powell, deputy national security adviser. Mr Cohn was the one who tended to handle the phone calls when chief executives threatened to leave the president’s (now disbanded) business councils in recent months.

他谈论了明智(且可实现)的目标，例如改革空中交通管制。他有一个盟友团队，例如财政部长、之前也在高盛任职的史蒂文•姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin);交通部长赵小兰(Elaine Chao);以及副国家安全顾问迪娜•鲍威尔(Dina Powell)。最近几个月，科恩往往会在首席执行官们威胁要离开总统(如今已解散)的商界顾问委员会时接电话。

The question that investors and executives are asking is whether that “Cohn trade” still works. It certainly looks like a higher risk bet. Never mind the fact that Mr Cohn and John Kelly, the president’s chief of staff, failed to stop Mr Trump from making his inflammatory comments this week about the Charlottesville protests. What is most telling is that this disaster happened at the very moment that Mr Cohn’s star was supposed to shine.

投资者和公司高管在问的问题是，“科恩交易”是否仍然明智?它看上去肯定是一个风险较高的赌注。且不提这个事实：科恩和白宫幕僚长约翰•凯利(John Kelly)未能阻止特朗普最近就夏洛茨维尔市的抗议活动发表煽动性言论。最能说明问题的是，这场灾难发生在本该让科恩闪光的场合。

The news conference at Trump Tower on Tuesday was called to support infrastructure reforms being developed by Messrs Cohn and Mnuchin, and Ms Chao. These proposals were depressingly short of detail. But the direction — cutting red tape, speeding up approvals — was sensible. The fact that they have now been drowned out is sadly symbolic.

特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)上周二召集新闻发布会，本来是为了支持科恩、姆努钦和赵小兰正在制定的基础设施改革。这些方案令人沮丧地缺乏细节。但是大方向是明智的：减少官僚手续、加快审批。结果它们被争议言论淹没，具有令人悲哀的象征意义。

This does not necessarily mean that all the investor optimism around the Cohn trade has disappeared. Stock markets are still flushed with oodles of central bank liquidity and boosted by moderate economic growth. And one important detail about the Cohn-cum-Trump trade that is often forgotten is that markets did not merely rally because business hoped reforms would get done. Executives were also excited about what might not occur under Mr Trump — Barack Obama-style regulatory creep.

这不一定意味着投资者对于“科恩交易”的所有乐观情绪都已消失。股市仍充斥着央行的巨额流动性，并受到温和经济增长的助推。有关“科恩+特朗普交易”的一个经常被遗忘的重要细节是，市场并不只是因为企业期待改革落实而上涨。此外，公司高管们对于在特朗普任下可能不会发生的事情感到振奋：巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)主政时的那种监管越来越多的局面。

That sense of relief about regulatory inaction will not disappear just because of this week’s drama. The ideological bent of the people who Mr Trump has appointed into regulatory roles probably matters more than any legislative moves, or White House dramas. Bankers are thrilled, for example, that Jay Clayton, the head of the Securities Exchange Commission, is emphasising measures to boost capital formation, not enforcement or bank reform. Ajit Pai, the head of the Federal Communication Commission, has signalled that he his less concerned about monopoly power in the media. Democrats are horrified; stock market bulls are cheering.

对监管不作为的那种如释重负的感觉，不会仅仅因为上周的戏剧性事件而消失。特朗普任命的监管官员的意识形态倾向，很可能比任何立法举措或者白宫戏剧更重要。例如，美国证交会(SEC)主席杰伊•克莱顿(Jay Clayton)强调要采取措施促进资本形成，而不是执法或者银行改革，这让银行家们感到振奋。美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)主席阿吉特•帕伊(Ajit Pai)发出信号表示，他不怎么担心媒体行业的垄断势力。民主党人感到震惊，看多股市的人们欢欣鼓舞。

Nevertheless, as an analyst note from Bank of Montreal observes, “the focus [for investors] has now turned to Gary Cohn and his commitment to the administration”. That hangs in the balance. On Wednesday Mr Cohn and the president’s daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, both senior White House advisers, tried to salvage their reputations by telling journalists (anonymously) that they were “disgusted” by Mr Trump’s failure to condemn neo-Nazis. But they know that many observers, including some of their close friends, consider this woefully inadequate, particularly given that Charlottesville demonstrators chanted explicit anti-Jewish slogans.

然而，正如蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)的一份分析师简报指出的那样，“(投资者的)焦点已转向加里•科恩及其对特朗普政府的承诺。”这种承诺尚存变数。上周三，科恩与特朗普的女儿伊万卡•特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和女婿贾里德•库什纳(Jared Kushner)——两人均是白宫的高级顾问——试图挽救自己的名声，他们(匿名地)告诉记者，他们对特朗普未能谴责新纳粹主义感到“恶心”。但他们知道，许多观察人士(包括他们的一些密友)认为这根本不够，尤其是考虑到夏洛茨维尔的抗议人群喊出了露骨的反犹太人口号。

Mr Kushner is a proud orthodox Jew, who is heading to Israel this weekend to promote Middle East peace. Mr Cohn created a Jewish centre at Kent University, Ohio, that is a “home-away-from-home” for 1,500 Jewish students and bears his name. The reputational stain from this week’s events is considerable.

库什纳是一名骄傲的正统派犹太教徒，他定于上周末前往以色列推动中东和平。科恩在俄亥俄州肯特大学(Kent University)创立了一个以其名字命名的犹太人中心，让1500名犹太学生有一个“异乡的家园”。上周事件对名声的影响相当大。

Maybe all of this will create so much pressure on Mr Cohn that he resigns. I would not bet on it yet. His camp still thinks — or hopes — that Mr Trump is so isolated that some sense of normalcy will prevail, allowing them infrastructure and tax reform. They also hope that Mr Bannon will be forced out. “This is not the end of the story,” mutters one executive, who knows Mr Cohn well.

或许所有这些都会给科恩带来巨大压力，促使他辞职。我还不会打赌这会发生。他的阵营仍认为(或者说希望)在特朗普深陷孤立的情况下，某种正常感将会占上风，让他们推进基础设施和税收改革。他们还希望，班农将被迫离开。一位了解科恩的高管说道：“这不是故事的结尾。”

Either way, for the moment the “Cohn trade” is still alive; but the White House — or Trumpian royal court — is in a state of open civil war and chaos. It is a fool’s errand to predict how this dismal saga will end. But stock market bulls had better hope that global central banks keep propping asset prices up.

无论怎样，就目前而言，“科恩交易”仍会继续;但白宫(或者说“特朗普皇室”)陷入了公开的内斗和混乱。预测这场闹剧如何收场是不可能的。但股市多头们最好希望，各国央行会继续支撑资产价格。