21世纪的中印竞争

China has spent the past decade notching up firsts — world’s largest manufacturer, world’s largest exporter, world’s largest foreign reserves, world’s largest market for vehicles. In 2014, the International Monetary Fund even reported that, ranked by purchasing power, China is the world’s largest economy.

过去十年，中国一直在收集各种“第一”——全球最大制造业国家、全球最大出口国、全球最大外汇储备、全球最大汽车市场。2014年，国际货币基金组织(IMF)甚至曾报告称，以购买力计算，中国是全球最大经济体。

But there is one “world’s largest” title that China may have lost. New demographic research suggests that India, not China, could be the most populous country in the world — with unofficial estimates of China’s population revised down to just under 1.3bn, compared with India’s population of 1.33bn. That news could feed the growing sense in India, that while the rise of China has been the global story of the past 30 years, the next 30 will be India’s time to shine.

不过，中国也许已经丧失了一个“全球最大”头衔。新的人口研究显示，全球人口最多国家可能是印度而非中国——中国人口的非官方估计向下修正至略低于13亿，而印度人口为13.3亿。这一新闻可能会助长印度一种日益攀升的感受，即尽管过去30年中国的崛起一直是个全球话题，下一个30年将成为印度闪耀之时。

Population trends in India certainly look more favourable for long-term economic growth than those in China. It is not just that India’s population may have surpassed that of China and will grow faster in future. More important, the Indian population is significantly younger than that of China, which means that it will have a larger working-age population than China, and fewer retired people to support. The recent history of Japan demonstrates that an ageing and shrinking population has a powerful negative effect on economic growth.

与中国相比，印度的人口趋势看起来对长期经济增长当然更有利一些。这并不仅仅因为印度人口或已超过中国，并将在未来以更快速度增长。更重要的是，印度人口比中国显著年轻，这意味着印度将拥有比中国更庞大的劳动年龄人口，需要供养的退休人口更少。日本近期的历史证明，老龄化并处于收缩中的人口，对经济增长会产生巨大的负面影响。

These demographic forces may already be feeding through into growth rates. After decades in which India had to put up with jibes about the “Hindu rate of growth”, India is growing faster than China, with growth projected to exceed 7 per cent this year, compared with China’s official figure of 6.5 per cent.

这种人口因素也许已经在向经济增长速度反馈了。在不得不忍受了数十年“印度增速”的嘲笑之后，印度的增长速度正在超过中国，预计今年的增速会超过7%，相比之下中国官方增长数据为6.5%。

But there are also some powerful qualifications to the idea that India is poised to catch up and then outstrip China. First, the Chinese economy is already five times larger, in real terms, than that of India. That means that even though India is currently growing slightly faster than China in percentage terms, the gap in the sizes of the two economies is growing, not shrinking.

不过，对于印度就要赶上和超过中国的观点，存在一些强有力的限定条件。首先，中国实际经济规模已经是印度的5倍。这意味着即便印度目前的增速百分比比中国略高一些，中印两个经济体规模上的差距仍在增大，而不是在缩小。

Second, while demography favours India, in other important respects, China is better placed. Thirty per cent of the Indian population is illiterate, compared with under 5 per cent of the Chinese population. China’s infrastructure is also far superior to that of India, reflected in roads, railways and basic sanitation. Half of Indians still lack access to basic toilet facilities.

其次，尽管人口因素有利于印度，在其他重要方面，中国则更有利一些。印度30%的人口是文盲，而中国文盲比例则低于5%。中国的基础设施也远远优于印度，这表现在公路、铁路和基本卫生系统上。半数印度人仍然缺乏基本的厕所设施。

These kinds of comparisons are more than a mere parlour game. They matter because China and India are the two emerging superpowers of the 21st century. The nations are already engaged in a low-key geopolitical and ideological struggle.

这种比较不仅仅是文字游戏。它们的重要性在于，中国和印度是21世纪两个新兴超级大国。两个国家已卷入了一轮低调的地缘政治和意识形态斗争。

India has reacted with alarm to China’s ambitious plans to build infrastructure links across Asia, fearing that they will create a Chinese sphere of influence that will encircle India. When China hosted its “Belt and Road” forum in Beijing last month to promote plans to spend billions on infrastructure links across Eurasia, more than 100 countries sent official delegations — but India stayed away. The Indians fear that China is re-creating a tributary system in which Asian economies are bound into an economic system in which “all roads lead to Beijing”.

对于中国建立横跨亚洲的基础设施网络的大胆计划，印度的反应十分警觉，它担心这些计划将打造包围印度的中国势力范围。上个月，中国在北京召开了“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛，推广其斥巨资建设连接欧亚的基础设施的计划。当时，逾100个国家派出了官方代表——印度却置身事外。印度人担心，中国正在重新建立一种朝贡体系。在这个体系中，亚洲各经济体被捆绑到一个“条条大路通北京”的经济系统中。

The implications of these infrastructure developments are strategic and economic. At a time when China’s navy is growing fast, Chinese-funded ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are regarded with particular suspicion in Delhi. Growing ties between Pakistan and China create anxiety in India, which has fought four wars with Pakistan. Beijing and Delhi have their own unresolved territorial dispute, dating back to the war they fought in 1962, and the Indians worry that China is increasing pressure over its claims on the Indian province of Arunachal Pradesh.

这些基础设施开发的影响既有战略上的，也有经济上的。在这个中国海军正在迅速扩大的时期，新德里方面正以尤为怀疑的眼光看待中国出资在斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦建设的港口。中国和巴基斯坦之间日益增长的往来，在与巴基斯坦有过四场战争的印度产生了焦虑。北京和新德里之间自身还存在没有解决的领土争端，这些领土争端要回溯至1962年它们之间爆发的战争。印度人还担心，中国正在加大其对印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦(Arunachal Pradesh)声索主权的力度。

Military budgets in China and India have been rising sharply. China has launched its second aircraft carrier and is working on a third. And India has become the world’s largest importer of weaponry, after Saudi Arabia. The Indians have also stepped up military exercises with the US and Japan — two countries regarded as strategic adversaries by China. Shashank Joshi of the Royal United Services Institute in London argues that, as strategic tension rises, Indian-Chinese relations are “in their worst state for over a decade”.

中印两国军事预算一直在急剧增长。中国第二艘航母已经下水，并已开工建造第三艘航母。印度则已成为仅次于沙特阿拉伯的全球第二大武器进口国。此外，印度人还加大了与美国和日本的军演力度——美日被中国视为战略对手。伦敦英国皇家联合军种研究院(Royal United Services Institute)的沙善•乔希(Shashank Joshi)认为，由于战略紧张升级，印中关系“正处于十多年来的最差状态”。

One particular Chinese gripe is the fact that the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, detested by Beijing, continues to be based in India. His presence points to the ideological element in the rivalry between India and China. Chinese analysts have often contrasted the success of their development model with the slower growth produced by India’s “chaotic” democracy. Indians like to respond that their democratic system will ultimately prove more stable than China’s one-party state. There is also a moral aspect to this argument. Indians boast of freedom of speech and independent courts. The Chinese respond that the ordinary citizen in China lives a more comfortable and dignified life than the average Indian.

中国人尤其感到不满的，是北京方面憎恶的西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)一直居住在印度的事实。达赖喇嘛的存在，显示了印中对抗的意识形态元素。中国分析人士时常将中国发展模式的成功与印度“混乱”民主制度产生的较慢增长速度作对比。印度人则喜欢回应称，他们的民主体制最终会被证明比中国的一党制政府更稳定。这一辩论还涉及道德方面。印度人对他们的言论自由和独立法庭夸耀不已。中国人则回应称，比起印度的普通人，中国普通公民过得更舒适、更有尊严。

These arguments reflect the fact that China and India represent not just rival powers but also rival political systems, ideologies, even civilisations. Western political analysts are preoccupied by the emerging power struggle between the US and China. But as economic and political power shifts to Asia, it is the contest between China and India that may ultimately shape the 21st century.

这些辩论反映出这样一个事实：中国和印度不仅仅代表两个相互竞争的国家，还代表两个相互竞争的政治体制、意识形态、甚至文明。西方政治分析人士头脑里想的都是美中之间的新兴强国斗争。然而，随着经济和政治影响力向亚洲转移，最终决定21世纪格局的，也许会是中印之间的竞争。