中国坏债市场吸引全球投资者

Global investors are returning to China’s swelling market for bad debt after several years of watching from the sidelines.

在多年观望后，全球投资者正在重返中国不断膨胀的坏债市场。

Private equity funds Lone Star and PAG over the past few months have started buying non-performing loan (NPL) portfolios in the country, according to several people familiar with the matter.

根据几名知情人士的说法，近几个月里，私募股权基金孤星基金(Lone Star)和太盟投资集团(PAG)开始在中国买入不良贷款资产组合。

The entrance of the groups marks the first time in years that foreign funds have braved China’s bad debt market without powerful local partners.

这两家集团的入场，标志着外国基金多年来首次在没有强大本土合作伙伴的情况下闯荡中国坏债市场。

Non-performing loans at Chinese banks have ballooned over the past three years following a government-led credit binge starting at the onset of the global financial crisis. Investors estimated late last year that the volume of bad debt in the country had reached $3tn.

过去三年，在始于全球金融危机爆发的政府主导的信贷狂宴之后，中国各银行的不良贷款大大增加。投资者在去年末估计，中国的坏债规模已达到3万亿美元。

Beijing has sought a number of solutions to damp down the level of toxic assets in its financial sector, such as securitising NPLs or pushing banks to swap them out for equity in the debtors.

北京方面已尝试多种解决方案降低金融部门的有毒资产水平，比如将不良贷款证券化，或迫使银行将坏债置换成债务人的股权。

Despite the rapidly growing market, most global investors have avoided distressed debt investing in China, fearing prolonged legal battles in local courtrooms and unresolvable loans connected to China’s waning state manufacturing sector.

尽管坏债市场迅速增长，但是多数全球投资者迄今规避对中国不良债务的投资，惧怕被卷入在中国国内法庭上演的旷日持久的法律战，也惧怕与中国境况不佳的国有制造业部门有关的解决不了的贷款。

But as distressed debt investing in Europe slows, more global funds are expected to turn to China, according to Jonathan Daniel, head of portfolio lead advisory at Deloitte Tohmatsu in Tokyo. 不过，根据东京德勤(Deloitte Tohmatsu)资产组合负责人咨询主管乔纳森•丹尼尔(Jonathan Daniel)的说法，随着欧洲坏债投资增长放缓，更多全球基金预计会转向中国。

“In 2016, we saw $170bn of European NPL sales and whilst this figure is significantly larger than what we saw in Asia during 2016, we note the declining volumes (and returns) seen in UK, Ireland and Spain,” said Mr Daniel. “Recognising this, US PE investors are now looking to Asia and specifically China for future deal flow as Europe resolves its NPL issues.”

丹尼尔表示：“2016年，我们看到欧洲不良贷款成交额为1700亿美元。尽管这一数字显著高于2016年亚洲的数字，但我们注意到英国、爱尔兰和西班牙的成交额(以及回报)出现了下滑。有鉴于此，在欧洲解决其不良贷款问题之际，美国私募股权投资者正将目光转向亚洲(尤其是中国)以寻觅未来的交易流。”

PAG has run a private credit business in China for roughly a decade. The surge in bad debt attracted the group to the NPL market, said Jenny Liu, a managing director at PAG.

盟投资在中国运营私人信贷业务已有差不多10年。该集团一名董事总经理珍妮•刘(Jenny Liu，音译)表示，坏债激增吸引该集团进入不良贷款市场。

“The volume was not that big before but it is increasing significantly,” Ms Liu said. “There is definitely a lot more interest especially from foreign investors even though the market is still dominated by Chinese money. This is probably the starting phase of a multi-year cycle.”

刘女士表示：“过去的成交额不是很大，但现在正在显著上升。投资兴趣，尤其是外国投资者的投资兴趣，肯定增加了许多，尽管该市场仍由中资主导。这很可能是一个多年周期的起步阶段。”

PAG will aim to invest in NPL portfolios of more than $50m-$60m, Ms Liu said.

刘女士表示，太盟投资打算向不良贷款资产组合投资5000万至6000万美元以上。

Lone Star did not respond to questions on the matter.

孤星基金没有回应涉及此事的问题。

Lone Star and PAG join only a few other foreign investors in the bad debt industry in China. ShoreVest Capital Partners began buying NPL portfolios in China in November. The group was formed by Benjamin Fanger, a long-time China distressed debt investor, after the split-up of an earlier fund.

在孤星基金和太盟投资之前，只有寥寥几家其他外国投资者投资于中国的坏债产业。去年11月，ShoreVest Capital Partners开始在中国买入不良贷款组合。该集团由长期投资于中国坏债的方杰明(Benjamin Fanger)在之前一只基金分拆后创建。

Global fund Oaktree Capital launched a joint venture in 2013 with China Cinda Asset Management, one of four government-backed groups mandated to buy up bad debt from banks. KKR tied up with another state-run asset manager, China Orient Asset Management, in 2016.

2013年，全球基金橡树资本(Oaktree Capital)与中国信达资产管理公司(China Cinda Asset Management)组建了一家合资企业。中国信达是受权从银行买入坏债的四家政府支持的集团之一。2016年，KKR与另一家国有资产管理公司中国东方资产管理公司(China Orient Asset Management)结盟。

“If we can find opportunities to buy loans at a discount from the banks and work with company promoters to restructure, that could be interesting to consider,” said Sabita Prakash, a director at ADM Capital.

ADM Capital董事萨比塔•普拉卡什(Sabita Prakash)表示：“如果我们能找到机会，以折扣价从银行买入贷款，然后与公司发起人合作进行重组，那会是有意思的考虑对象。”

“However, most of the NPLs are in the traditional manufacturing sectors with high overcapacities and unproven business profiles. We are good at restructuring financial profiles but prefer to see proven business solvency before considering these assets.”

“不过，多数不良贷款来自产能高度过剩、业务轮廓未经证实的传统制造业部门。我们擅长于重组财务轮廓，但在考虑这类资产之前，希望看到企业的偿付能力得到证明。”