朝鲜试射中程导弹将引发多重效应

North Korea on Sunday launched its first ballistic missile since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, presenting the new administration with its first potential foreign policy flashpoint.

朝鲜周日发射自唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就任美国总统以来首枚弹道导弹，给美国新政府带来外交政策方面第一个潜在的冲突引爆点。

The launch sparked a wave of condemnation from world leaders, including Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe who, in joint remarks with Mr Trump, called it “absolutely intolerable”.

这次发射激起世界领导人的同声谴责，包括日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)，他在与特朗普联合发表的声明中称此举“绝对不能容忍”。

Pyongyang fired the medium-range rocket shortly before 8am local time and it flew 500km before crashing into the Sea of Japan, according to the US and South Korean military.

据美国和韩国军方表示，平壤方面在当地时间周日早上近8时发射了一枚中程火箭，火箭飞行500公里后落入日本海。

“This was not reckless, but rather a carefully chosen behaviour by Pyongyang,” said Bong Youngshik, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“此举并不鲁莽，而是平壤方面一个精心选择的行为，”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的朝鲜专家奉英植(Bong Young-shik)表示。

“By choosing not to fire a long-range missile, North Korea didn’t shut the door completely on the Trump administration. Rather, they tried to deliver a message of displeasure and an early warning that Trump would be better off choosing engagement policies.”

“选择不发射远程导弹意味着，朝鲜没有对特朗普政府完全关起门来。相反，他们试图传达一个信息，表明自己的不快，并做出一个初步警告，特朗普最好选择接触政策。”

Following two nuclear and more than 20 ballistic missile tests, North Korea has again vaulted on top of the leaderboard of potential geopolitical flashpoints. 去年进行了两次核试验和20多次弹道导弹试验后，朝鲜在地缘政治潜在冲突引爆点的排行榜上再次跃升至最高位置。

Before leaving the Oval Office, then US president Barack Obama told Mr Trump that North Korea would be his most immediate foreign policy challenge.

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在离开白宫椭圆形办公室之前告诉特朗普，朝鲜将是他最迫在眼前的外交政策挑战。

In January, North Korea announced it could a launch long-range ballistic missile, capable of hitting the US, whenever it chooses.

朝鲜在1月宣布，它可能在自己选择的任何时间发射一枚能够打到美国的远程弹道导弹。

However, it has not yet demonstrated it is able to do so and the announcement elicited a searing response from Mr Trump, who said “it won’t happen”.

然而，该国尚未展示它有能力这么做，而特朗普做出尖锐的回应，称“这不会发生”。

There are also growing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. During a visit to Seoul earlier this month, James Mattis, US defence secretary, warned Pyongyang that the use of nuclear weapons would be met with an “effective and overwhelming” response.

各方还日益关切朝鲜的核武实力。美国国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯(James Mattis)本月早些时候访问首尔期间警告平壤，使用核武器将招致“有效和势不可挡的的”回击。

The latest missile test came amid a high-profile visit by Mr Abe to Mr Trump’s “winter White House” residence in Florida.

朝鲜进行最新的导弹试射之际，安倍晋三正高调访问特朗普在佛罗里达州的“冬天白宫”居所。

In joint remarks following the launch, Mr Trump reconfirmed the US commitment to its “great ally” Japan — remarks that raised eyebrows in Seoul for failing to mention South Korea.

在朝鲜导弹试射后美日发表的联合声明中，特朗普再次确认了美国对其“伟大盟国”日本的承诺，但他的表态在首尔引发错愕，因为特朗普没有提到韩国。

“By timing the launch with the Japan-US meeting, North Korea wanted to see how strongly Mr Trump will react and what actual steps the US and Japan will take beyond the verbal condemnation,” said Hajime Izumi, a North Korean expert at Tokyo International University.

“在日美峰会期间试射导弹表明，朝鲜希望看看特朗普会作出多强烈的反应，以及美国和日本除了口头谴责以外会采取什么实际步骤，”东京国际大学(Tokyo International University)的朝鲜专家伊豆见元(Izumi Hajime)表示。

“North Korean officials themselves are very uncertain because there are no precedents to rely on in regards to Mr Trump,” Mr Izumi added.

“朝鲜官员自己很不确定，因为在如何与特朗普打交道方面没有先例可循，”伊豆见元补充说。

For Mr Bong, the latest test will be quietly welcomed by China.

首尔延世大学的奉英植认为，中国将暗自欢迎朝鲜最新的导弹试射。

“Beijing needs a barking dog to harass the Trump administration as it cannot do it up front,” he said. “They will welcome the test as a reminder to Trump that he needs China’s co-operation.”

“北京方面需要一只咆哮的狗来骚扰特朗普政府，因为它不能自己跳出来那么做，”他表示。“他们将欢迎此次试射，以提醒特朗普，他需要中国的合作。”

The launch is also likely to complicate politics on the Korean peninsula. 此次试射还可能使朝鲜半岛的政治复杂化。

Following a vast corruption scandal last year, Seoul is gearing up for a potential presidential election, with Liberal party candidate, Moon Jae-in, currently leading the polls.

继去年爆发一场特大腐败丑闻后，首尔正在加紧准备一场潜在的总统选举，自由派政党候选人文在寅(Moon Jae-in)目前在民意调查中领先。

Mr Moon has traditionally adopted a more dovish approach to Pyongyang and the latest provocation will be seen as a blow to his prospects.

文在寅历来对平壤方面采取较为鸽派的姿态，朝鲜的最新挑衅将被视为不利于他的选情。

The country is also in the midst of deploying a controversial US anti-missile shield, a development that has rankled China.

韩国还正在部署有争议的美国反导系统，此举惹怒了中国。

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense platform, or Thaad, is ostensibly meant to protect against the threat from North Korea, but has raised the ire of Beijing which says it undermines its own nuclear deterrent and fears it will be used to help US surveillance.

末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD，中文简称：萨德)表面上是为了抵御来自朝鲜的威胁，但部署该系统的计划使北京方面愤怒，称其破坏了中国的核威慑，担心它将被美国用于对中国境内进行侦察。

Following the announcement, China launched an array of retaliatory measures on South Korean companies.

部署萨德的计划宣布后，中国对韩国企业采取了一系列报复措施。

“North Korea’s latest test will exacerbate the discord over Thaad. [South Korean] conservatives will point to it as a reminder of the importance of the missile shield,” said Mr Bong.

“朝鲜的最新测试将加剧围绕萨德的不和。(韩国)保守派人士将把它作为一个例证，说明反导系统的重要性，”奉英植表示。