美国垃圾债券吸引大量资金
投资者正大举买入一些风险最高的公司债券，押注唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将会兑现提振经济、降低税收和减少监管的承诺。
Demand for junk-rated bonds has driven yields on debt with the lowest quality credit rating down towards 10 per cent as more than $10bn has flowed into funds that invest in the asset class since the start of December.
对垃圾级债券的旺盛需求，已把最劣质信用评级的债务的收益率压低至接近10%。自去年12月初以来，已有超过100亿美元资金流入投资于这一资产类别的基金。
Borrowings by triple-C rated groups, among the lowest tier of the high-yield universe, have risen nearly two-thirds from a year earlier when the average yield for this part of the junk market peaked at 21.7 per cent. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
在高收益债券市场的最低层次，CCC级企业的借款额比一年前增长近三分之二，那时这部分垃圾级市场的平均收益率达到21.7%的峰值。债券价格上升时收益率下降。
The current market rally has allowed the extension of credit to riskier borrowers at appealing terms, with high- yield groups raising $41bn in the US so far this year, including money to refinance older debt — the greatest amount in the same period since 2013, according to Dealogic.
当前的市场涨势使得风险较高的借款人能够以有吸引力的条款获得信贷。Dealogic数据显示，高收益债券集团今年迄今已在美国筹资410亿美元(包括对旧债进行再融资的资金)，这是自2013年以来同期最大金额。
“People are more comfortable taking risk, driven by optimism around new policies and the risk-on mentality,” said Raman Srivastava, deputy chief investment officer of Standish Mellon Asset Management.
“出于对新政策的乐观情绪和冒险心态，人们更乐于承担风险了，”Standish Mellon Asset Management副首席投资官拉曼•斯里瓦斯塔瓦(Raman Srivastava)表示。
Bullish investor sentiment, however, comes as warnings mount over the outlook for the $2.2tn US junk bond market, led by a looming $1tn “maturity wall” facing lower-rated companies over the next five years, a record level according to rating agency Moody’s.
然而，投资者情绪高涨之际，各方对2.2万亿美元的美国垃圾债券市场的前景发出一个又一个警告，尤其是未来五年期间低评级公司将迎来一堵1万亿美元的“到期墙”;据评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)介绍，这将是一个创纪录水平。
The maturities peak in 2021, when more than $400bn of bonds and loans come due. At the same time, analysts at the credit agency warn ratings on the loans have “deteriorated significantly”.
到期债务将在2021年达到峰值，那年将有超过4000亿美元的债券和贷款到期。与此同时，穆迪的分析师们警告，贷款的评级已“显著恶化”。
“It is becoming impossible to ignore downside fundamental and political risks,” said Stephen Caprio, a strategist with UBS. “Bank and nonbank lending standards are not easing, credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising, bank commercial and industrial loan growth has stalled, and more protectionist sentiment is being underpriced in our view as a macro risk.”
“现在已经不可能忽视基本面和政治方面的下行风险，”瑞银(UBS)策略师斯蒂芬•卡普里奥(Stephen Caprio)表示。“银行和非银行机构的放贷标准没有放松，信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率不断上升，银行的商业和工业贷款增长陷入停滞，更具保护主义的情绪未被充分反映到价格上，我们认为这是一个宏观风险。”
But lower corporate taxes promised by the new president would free up cash for interest payments by junk-rated companies, while a reduced regulatory burden could bolster margins, investors and strategists say.
但是，投资者和策略师们表示，新总统承诺的公司税降低将释放垃圾级公司的资金用于偿付利息，而监管负担减轻有望提振利润率。
Risk premiums on high-yield and investment grade corporate debt — a measure of the spread investors demand to hold those bonds over haven US Treasuries — have fallen to within 259 basis points of each other, Bank of America data shows.
美国银行(Bank of America)的数据显示，高收益率和投资级公司债务的风险溢价——衡量投资者为持有此类债券而要求的高出美国国债(被视为避风港资产)的息差——已收窄至259个基点以内。
That is down from a peak of more than 650 bps a year ago, when a rapid fall in commodity prices and fears of a Chinese slowdown sparked broader market turmoil. “There was a lot of fear and loathing in the market last year,” said Mary Bowers, a portfolio manager with HSBC. “That has fallen into the background since Trump was elected.”
这远低于一年前超过650基点的峰值，当时大宗商品价格迅速下降和对中国经济放缓的担忧引发了整体市场动荡。“去年市场充斥着恐惧和厌恶情绪，”汇丰(HSBC)的一名投资组合经理玛丽•鲍尔斯(Mary Bowers)表示。“自特朗普当选以来，那已经消失于背景中。”
