曾俊华宣布参选香港行政长官

The race to be the next leader of Hong Kong is heating up in a pivotal contest that will highlight Beijing’s attitude to the semi-autonomous Chinese territory as it struggles with a sluggish economy, deep political discord and a growing separatist movement.

成为香港下一届领导人的角逐正在升温，这场关键竞赛将突显北京方面对这个半自治的中国特别行政区的态度。目前香港正艰难应对低迷的经济、深刻的政治矛盾，以及不断壮大的分离主义运动。

John Tsang, who recently resigned as Hong Kong’s financial secretary, on Thursday became the fourth person to declare candidacy for the chief executive position, which will be selected in March by a 1,194-member committee dominated by pro-Beijing politicians and businesspeople.

最近辞去香港财政司司长职务的曾俊华(John Tsang)周四成为第四位宣布参选行政长官职位的候选人，最终人选将在3月份由一个1194人的委员会(多数成员是亲北京的政界和商界人士)选举产生。

The other candidates are Carrie Lam, who was formerly Hong Kong’s number two official, Regina Ip, another former senior official, and Woo Kwok-hing, a former judge.

其他候选人包括曾经是香港政府二号人物的林郑月娥(Carrie Lam)、另一位前高官叶刘淑仪(Regina Ip)，以及前法官胡国兴(Woo Kwok-hing)。

“We need to check the disruptive elements that threaten to curb our growth,” said Mr Tsang, warning of the risks from political polarisation and what he called “irrational talk of independence”.

“我们需要遏制那些危及本港经济增长的破坏性因素，”曾俊华表示。他对政治两极分化的风险以及他所称的“妄言要搞港独的人”发出了警告。

Mr Tsang, a career civil servant who studied in the US, suggested the Hong Kong and Beijing governments needed to take a softer approach to the pro-democracy opposition, warning that current problems cannot be resolved by “mere force and aggression” and that the authorities “must refrain from undue interference”.

曾在美国学习、此前一直是职业公务员的曾俊华建议，香港和中央政府需要对亲民主的反对派采取更柔和的态度，他警告称，解决当前的问题不能靠“以力制胜”，而且当局“必须避免不当干扰”。

Current chief executive CY Leung, who is stepping down at the end of his five-year term, is deeply unpopular. He is blamed for failing to rein in the world’s least affordable housing prices and supporting increasing meddling by Beijing despite the “high degree of autonomy” promised to the former British colony when it was handed back to China in 1997.

将在完成五年任期后卸任的现任行政长官梁振英(CY Leung)人气极差。他被指责为未能遏止世界上最不可承受的房价，并支持北京方面增加干预，尽管后者曾在1997年这块前英国殖民地回归时承诺“高度自治”。

To win in March, candidates have first to be nominated by 150 members of the election committee and then get more than 50 per cent of the vote.

要在3月赢得行政长官职位，候选人必须首先得到选举委员会150个成员的提名，然后获得超过50%的选票。

Although the ballot is secret, political analysts say Beijing usually supports one candidate and leans on the establishment members of the committee to vote accordingly.

虽然投票是秘密的，但政治分析人士表示，北京方面通常支持一个候选人，然后施压建制派的选举委员会成员据此投票。

There is still an element of uncertainty, however, as just over 300 of the 1,194 electors support the democracy movement and some of the establishment members may vote against Beijing’s recommendation.

然而，仍然有一个不确定因素，因为选举委员会的1194个成员中有300余人支持民主运动，同时某些建制派成员投票时可能不听从北京方面的建议。

“It is possible a candidate that Beijing didn’t prefer could win, but very unlikely,” said Mathew Wong, an associate professor of politics at the University of Hong Kong.

“北京方面不喜欢的候选人有可能获胜，但几率很低，”香港大学(University of Hong Kong)政治学助理教授黄以恒(Mathew Wong)表示。

Analysts believe Ms Lam, who is seen as a more uncompromising figure than Mr Tsang, is Beijing’s preferred choice. She has received favourable reporting by pro-establishment newspapers and has high-profile roles in a number of recent initiatives backed by the Chinese government.

分析人士认为，与曾俊华相比被视为更强硬人物的林郑月娥才是北京的首选。她得到了建制派报刊的有利报道，而且近期在中国政府支持的一些举措中得到抛头露面的角色。

But China’s Communist government does not usually give clear public signals, preferring to work through agents of its shadowy Liaison Office in Hong Kong.

但是中国的共产党政府通常不会给出明确的公开信号，而宁愿通过其在香港的联络办公室的人员开展活动。

Ivan Choy, a lecturer in politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the outcome of the process would show whether Beijing will take a softer approach to the territory, or stick to the hard line that analysts say is alienating many young people.

香港中文大学(Chinese University of Hong Kong)政治学讲师蔡子强(Ivan Choy)表示，选举行政长官过程的结果将显示北京会对这个特别行政区采取更柔和的做法，还是坚持分析人士称正在疏远许多年轻人的强硬路线。

“If John Tsang wins, then it means Beijing is adjusting its policy on Hong Kong,” he said. “But if Carrie Lam gets it, it is likely to remain the same.”

“如果曾俊华获胜，那将意味着北京在调整其对香港的政策，”他表示，“但是如果林郑月娥赢得这个职位，对港政策很可能保持不变。”