中国美债头寸降至2010年来最低水平
2016年11月，中国将持有的美国国债削减了660亿美元，从而在竭力稳定人民币汇率的同时，将这种避险债券的头寸降至2010年以来的最低水平。
The acceleration in sales — the largest monthly decline since December 2011 — threatens a rise in US interest rates if it continues and follows an unwinding in October that saw China cede its position as the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries to Japan.
这是2011年12月份以来最大的月度降幅。抛售的加速一旦持续下去，可能会导致美国加息。而此前在10月份的一轮平仓，令中国将美国国债最大境外持有者的地位让给了日本。
China has been selling its foreign exchange holdings in part to support the renminbi, which has fallen 4 per cent against the US dollar since the start of last year. The fall in Treasury holdings is part of a wider campaign by Beijing to stem capital outflows.
中国一直在抛售其外汇头寸，这部分是为了支撑人民币汇率。自去年初以来，人民币兑美元汇率已下跌4%。降低所持有的美国国债头寸，是中国政府遏制资金外流的更大运动的一部分。
The selling is likely to have amplified the volatility in Treasuries after the US election, when yields on the benchmark 10-year notes climbed as high as 2.64 per cent, the highest level since 2014. Investors fear continued selling, coupled with a more hawkish Federal Reserve, could shock yields even higher.
这轮抛售可能放大了大选后美国国债的波动性。当时，基准的美国十年期国债的收益率攀升至高达2.64%的水平，是自2014年以来的最高水平。投资者担心，持续的抛售再加上美联储(Fed)更趋鹰派，可能会进一步推高美国国债收益率。
“It’s a big deal,” said John Herrmann, a rates strategist at MUFG. “It is an alarmingly large drawdown and will have to be monitored closely. The question going forward is if we get another bout of selling then the current level of 10-year yields is not appropriate and will have to go higher.”
三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)利率策略师约翰•赫尔曼(John Herrmann)表示：“这事情影响很大。这是一轮令人警惕的大规模资金调动，它必将受到密切关注。眼下的问题是，如果再出现一轮抛售，十年期国债当前收益率水平将不再适当，从而会再次升高。”
Mr Herrmann said that further declines, taking China’s holdings below $1tn, would be cause for concern as markets would struggle to digest the selling activity, pushing rates higher. The country’s overall foreign exchange reserves fell by $41bn in December to $3.01tn.
赫尔曼表示，如果中国持有的美国国债进一步下滑至1万亿美元以下，可能会引发担忧情绪，因为市场会很难消化抛售活动——从而推高利率。2016年12月，中国总的外汇储备减少了410亿美元，跌至3.01万亿美元。
“China wants to be very careful in how they wind down their Treasury holdings,” said Jerry Lucas, a strategist with UBS Wealth Management. “Overall reserves are approaching the $3tn mark [and] they will not want it to go that much further, which is why they are getting much stricter on their capital controls.”
瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)策略师杰瑞•卢卡斯(Jerry Lucas)表示：“中国希望以极其谨慎的方式降低其美国国债头寸。该国总外汇储备正接近3万亿美元的关口，他们不希望外汇储备降那么多，这正是他们大大收紧资金管控的原因。”
Holdings in Belgium, often scrutinised as a proxy for China ownership, declined by $3bn in November, far less than the near $26bn drop a month prior.
比利时持有的美国国债头寸经常被当做衡量中国所持美国国债头寸的标准。2016年11月，该国美债头寸减少30亿美元，减少的规模大大低于此前一个月260亿美元的跌幅。
Treasury holdings among primary dealers, responsible for underwriting the US government’s debt, rose markedly in November amid China’s selling. Trading volumes also rose, hitting levels last seen in August 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US credit rating.
由于中国的抛售行为，2016年11月负责承销美国国债的初级市场交易商手中持有的美国国债显著增多。成交量也攀升至2011年8月才有的水平。而在2011年8月，标普(S&P)曾下调过美国的信用评级。
Bill Gross, the famed “bond king”, warned earlier this month that if yields were to rise above 2.6 per cent then the Treasury market risked moving into a secular bear market.
著名“债王”比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)曾在本月早些时候警告称，如果收益率升至2.6%以上，美国国债市场有转入长期熊市的风险。
US Treasury yields marched higher on Wednesday after Janet Yellen, Fed chair, warned of a “nasty surprise” if the central bank holds off raising interest rates for too long.
周三，美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)警告称，如果美联储将加息耽搁太久，或出现“令人不快的意外”。在耶伦表态之后，美国国债收益率出现了攀升。
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves inversely to price, rose 9 basis points to 2.42 per cent, with the sell-off accelerating after Ms Yellen’s comments. She added that she expects the Fed to raise interest rates a few times a year until 2019.
由于耶伦表态之后抛售行为加剧，基准的十年期美国国债收益率攀升了9个基点至2.42%——收益率走向与价格走向是相反的。耶伦还表示，她预计美联储会每年数次加息，直至2019年。
The news helped reverse the path of Treasury yields, which have been sinking in recent weeks, as investor optimism that Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal expansion and tax cuts will bring renewed growth and higher inflation has started to wane. The rise in Treasury yields came alongside strong US inflation data earlier in the day.
这一消息帮助逆转了几周来一直在下滑的美国国债收益率走向。原因是投资者乐观地认为，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的财政扩张和减税计划将带来新一轮增长，高通胀势头也已开始减弱。而与美国国债收益率攀升同时出现的，还有当天早些时候强劲的美国通胀数据。
“All of a sudden she started speaking and the front end has really started to steepen,” said Mr Herrmann. “We had no idea she was going to be this hawkish. She is normally very cautious and gradual.”
赫尔曼表示：“突然之间她就开始提到加息，收益率曲线的走势真的开始急剧攀升了。我们没想到她会如此鹰派。通常，她都是十分谨慎而渐进的。”
The comments also offered respite for financial stocks which on Tuesday saw their worst trading day since the Brexit vote. The S&P 500 financial sector rose 0.8 per cent on Wednesday, leading the index.
耶伦的言论还让金融股暂时松了口气。金融股曾在周二遭遇英国退欧公投以来最糟糕的一个交易日。周三，标普500(S&P 500)金融板块以0.8%的涨幅领涨股指。
